You have to admire the hubris and confidence here, I wonder how much of this is just for the press vs what he truly believes.
The 1500 and 5000m records in particular are no joke. El G - still in the middle of his career prime in terms of record breaking ability tried multiple times to break 3.26 and couldn't - even despite some wild attempts (especially at Rieti).
With respect to the 5000m WR - what's the one thing in common 3 of the last 4 record holders had in common? They were also WR holders over 10000m (JC, Kene, Geb). Komen is the outlier there and Jakob has commonality there with the 3000m ability, but my feeling is that when you are talking about running under 12.35, it falls more into the aerobic capacity/threshold side of excellence vs the anaerobic one (where his particular forte sits).
What I think raises my eyebrows is wanting to do it in one season. That could end in absolute disaster. He has just lost an entire season to an overuse injury - and that makes sense given what we know about his training philosophy which is very little anaerobic work past his threshold with the flipside being he needs considerable volume just below it to generate his fitness/potential. So this approach I'm not sure fits well with two distances like the 1500m and 5000m which require different approaches. I know the counter already - "but he ran 7.17 in the same season he ran 3.26" but the 3000m and 5000m are very different events at that level of running. His workout volume and specificity for the 3000m would be virtually the same as it is for the 1500m. That is not the case with the 5000m.
Honestly, I can't fathom a scenario where his body holds up. Last season we had the rumors of a 5000m attempt (in Oslo) and it coincided with him breaking down. Was that coincidence? Maybe. But it's also possible the demands of trying to be in sub 3.26 and sub 12.35 shape at basically the same time (or within a few months of each other) were too much. He's not a robot or superhuman.
I've never felt he had the anaerobic power to get the 1500m WR. El G was a very different runner - there is a recent thread on his training, go and compare that to what Jakob posts from his training if you need the evidence of that. The problem he has is by hanging on to the 1500m record he might legitimately hurt his chances of the 5000 - assuming he actually is capable of it (because the reality is as of today he has a PR that is 13 seconds slower). Time is running out. No athlete at this level has more than 3-4 seasons of world record ability and that is across almost every track discipline. This is likely the last season of his window, though because he lost 2025 that might extend to next season for the 5000.
If I was him and assuming I get back to my 2024 fitness - Mile WR is the priority. It's a legendary record and it's much weaker than the 1500 and the 5000m. And it bumps out an El G record and puts you right beside him plus you then own this real estate in the record book from the mile through the 3000m. Plus I think the mile record is achievable with more of the training he would do for the 5000m. Then you can see what 5000m opportunities are available (late season Zurich, Brussels) and then completely focus on 2027 for the 5.
If he gets in shape to run the mile WR, then the 5000 is easily his. He just needs to get in a race.
When he ran 7:17 he was in better than 12:35 shape. I hope he gets back there, but who knows.
Not sure why it’s so dangerous to go for all 3. If his fitness is high for the 1500, it is high for the 5000. And when Jakob is in top shape, he’s shown he can race a ton without injury.
If he gets in shape to run the mile WR, then the 5000 is easily his. He just needs to get in a race.
When he ran 7:17 he was in better than 12:35 shape. I hope he gets back there, but who knows.
Not sure why it’s so dangerous to go for all 3. If his fitness is high for the 1500, it is high for the 5000. And when Jakob is in top shape, he’s shown he can race a ton without injury.
Yes but what I bolded is exactly where Stitchmo disagrees. He can’t be in WR shape for both the 15 and the 5000m. I think it’s impossible to say personally. We know for absolute certainty that when he is in 3:26.xx shape then he is in 7:17 shape for 3k and likely 7:52-7:53 shape for the two miles. Does that extend to 5000m? Komen had a similar profile and he managed 12:39. With wavelight that probably bumps him to 12:36-12:37? We haven’t seen him ever go out in 7:3x in a 5000 though. Both of your arguments are probably equally as valid.
You have to admire the hubris and confidence here, I wonder how much of this is just for the press vs what he truly believes.
The 1500 and 5000m records in particular are no joke. El G - still in the middle of his career prime in terms of record breaking ability tried multiple times to break 3.26 and couldn't - even despite some wild attempts (especially at Rieti).
With respect to the 5000m WR - what's the one thing in common 3 of the last 4 record holders had in common? They were also WR holders over 10000m (JC, Kene, Geb). Komen is the outlier there and Jakob has commonality there with the 3000m ability, but my feeling is that when you are talking about running under 12.35, it falls more into the aerobic capacity/threshold side of excellence vs the anaerobic one (where his particular forte sits).
What I think raises my eyebrows is wanting to do it in one season. That could end in absolute disaster. He has just lost an entire season to an overuse injury - and that makes sense given what we know about his training philosophy which is very little anaerobic work past his threshold with the flipside being he needs considerable volume just below it to generate his fitness/potential. So this approach I'm not sure fits well with two distances like the 1500m and 5000m which require different approaches. I know the counter already - "but he ran 7.17 in the same season he ran 3.26" but the 3000m and 5000m are very different events at that level of running. His workout volume and specificity for the 3000m would be virtually the same as it is for the 1500m. That is not the case with the 5000m.
Honestly, I can't fathom a scenario where his body holds up. Last season we had the rumors of a 5000m attempt (in Oslo) and it coincided with him breaking down. Was that coincidence? Maybe. But it's also possible the demands of trying to be in sub 3.26 and sub 12.35 shape at basically the same time (or within a few months of each other) were too much. He's not a robot or superhuman.
I've never felt he had the anaerobic power to get the 1500m WR. El G was a very different runner - there is a recent thread on his training, go and compare that to what Jakob posts from his training if you need the evidence of that. The problem he has is by hanging on to the 1500m record he might legitimately hurt his chances of the 5000 - assuming he actually is capable of it (because the reality is as of today he has a PR that is 13 seconds slower). Time is running out. No athlete at this level has more than 3-4 seasons of world record ability and that is across almost every track discipline. This is likely the last season of his window, though because he lost 2025 that might extend to next season for the 5000.
If I was him and assuming I get back to my 2024 fitness - Mile WR is the priority. It's a legendary record and it's much weaker than the 1500 and the 5000m. And it bumps out an El G record and puts you right beside him plus you then own this real estate in the record book from the mile through the 3000m. Plus I think the mile record is achievable with more of the training he would do for the 5000m. Then you can see what 5000m opportunities are available (late season Zurich, Brussels) and then completely focus on 2027 for the 5.
One thing that might help in this goal is foregoing XC and the indoor season (although he probably won’t). Then, he could place all his baskets on 2026 as a record breaking season (just like 2023 was and 2024 to a lesser extent). He ran 3:27.95 in early June and then ran 3:43.73/7:23.63 as a double in the poor conditions of Eugene. I could see a repeat of that were he to stay healthy. He probably won’t though.
You have to admire the hubris and confidence here, I wonder how much of this is just for the press vs what he truly believes.
The 1500 and 5000m records in particular are no joke. El G - still in the middle of his career prime in terms of record breaking ability tried multiple times to break 3.26 and couldn't - even despite some wild attempts (especially at Rieti).
With respect to the 5000m WR - what's the one thing in common 3 of the last 4 record holders had in common? They were also WR holders over 10000m (JC, Kene, Geb). Komen is the outlier there and Jakob has commonality there with the 3000m ability, but my feeling is that when you are talking about running under 12.35, it falls more into the aerobic capacity/threshold side of excellence vs the anaerobic one (where his particular forte sits).
What I think raises my eyebrows is wanting to do it in one season. That could end in absolute disaster. He has just lost an entire season to an overuse injury - and that makes sense given what we know about his training philosophy which is very little anaerobic work past his threshold with the flipside being he needs considerable volume just below it to generate his fitness/potential. So this approach I'm not sure fits well with two distances like the 1500m and 5000m which require different approaches. I know the counter already - "but he ran 7.17 in the same season he ran 3.26" but the 3000m and 5000m are very different events at that level of running. His workout volume and specificity for the 3000m would be virtually the same as it is for the 1500m. That is not the case with the 5000m.
Honestly, I can't fathom a scenario where his body holds up. Last season we had the rumors of a 5000m attempt (in Oslo) and it coincided with him breaking down. Was that coincidence? Maybe. But it's also possible the demands of trying to be in sub 3.26 and sub 12.35 shape at basically the same time (or within a few months of each other) were too much. He's not a robot or superhuman.
I've never felt he had the anaerobic power to get the 1500m WR. El G was a very different runner - there is a recent thread on his training, go and compare that to what Jakob posts from his training if you need the evidence of that. The problem he has is by hanging on to the 1500m record he might legitimately hurt his chances of the 5000 - assuming he actually is capable of it (because the reality is as of today he has a PR that is 13 seconds slower). Time is running out. No athlete at this level has more than 3-4 seasons of world record ability and that is across almost every track discipline. This is likely the last season of his window, though because he lost 2025 that might extend to next season for the 5000.
If I was him and assuming I get back to my 2024 fitness - Mile WR is the priority. It's a legendary record and it's much weaker than the 1500 and the 5000m. And it bumps out an El G record and puts you right beside him plus you then own this real estate in the record book from the mile through the 3000m. Plus I think the mile record is achievable with more of the training he would do for the 5000m. Then you can see what 5000m opportunities are available (late season Zurich, Brussels) and then completely focus on 2027 for the 5.
One thing that might help in this goal is foregoing XC and the indoor season (although he probably won’t). Then, he could place all his baskets on 2026 as a record breaking season (just like 2023 was and 2024 to a lesser extent). He ran 3:27.95 in early June and then ran 3:43.73/7:23.63 as a double in the poor conditions of Eugene. I could see a repeat of that were he to stay healthy. He probably won’t though.
I hope he won't cos I quite enjoy watching him run his body into the ground for mickey mouse titles.
Jakob can do it if he stays healthy, which at this point might be a bigger if than we’d like to admit. But let’s assume his injury woes are behind him and he has a real shot at this.
In 2023, he ran 7:54.10 on June 9 and 4:43.13 on September 8. In between those races, he broke 3:30 four times (3:27.14 SB) and doubled at Worlds, yet still managed to end the season with that insane 3:43.73/7:23.63 double in Eugene. It’s pretty obvious he could’ve broken four records that year with an easier schedule.
Looking ahead to 2026, the two big events he’ll have his eyes on are the European Champs (Aug 10-16) and Ultimate Champs (Sep 11-13). That leaves the rest of the season to hunt records. Here is the DL calendar:
With all that in mind, a bare-bones racing schedule might look something like what I’ve written below. Note that this doesn’t take into account non-DL races or dabbling at off distances. It also assumes his 1 mile and 5k attempts will be one-and-done.
Oslo - 5000m WR attempt Monaco - 1500m WR attempt London - 1 Mile WR attempt EC - 1500m and 5000m double Silesia - 1500m WR attempt Brussels - 1500m WR attempt UC - 1500m and 5000m double
One thing that might help in this goal is foregoing XC and the indoor season (although he probably won’t). Then, he could place all his baskets on 2026 as a record breaking season (just like 2023 was and 2024 to a lesser extent). He ran 3:27.95 in early June and then ran 3:43.73/7:23.63 as a double in the poor conditions of Eugene. I could see a repeat of that were he to stay healthy. He probably won’t though.
I hope he won't cos I quite enjoy watching him run his body into the ground for mickey mouse titles.
Jakob can do it if he stays healthy, which at this point might be a bigger if than we’d like to admit. But let’s assume his injury woes are behind him and he has a real shot at this.
In 2023, he ran 7:54.10 on June 9 and 4:43.13 on September 8. In between those races, he broke 3:30 four times (3:27.14 SB) and doubled at Worlds, yet still managed to end the season with that insane 3:43.73/7:23.63 double in Eugene. It’s pretty obvious he could’ve broken four records that year with an easier schedule.
Looking ahead to 2026, the two big events he’ll have his eyes on are the European Champs (Aug 10-16) and Ultimate Champs (Sep 11-13). That leaves the rest of the season to hunt records. Here is the DL calendar:
With all that in mind, a bare-bones racing schedule might look something like what I’ve written below. Note that this doesn’t take into account non-DL races or dabbling at off distances. It also assumes his 1 mile and 5k attempts will be one-and-done.
Oslo - 5000m WR attempt Monaco - 1500m WR attempt London - 1 Mile WR attempt EC - 1500m and 5000m double Silesia - 1500m WR attempt Brussels - 1500m WR attempt UC - 1500m and 5000m double
He'd probably move the 5000 attempt to Paris and reserve the mile/1500 for monaco, Silesia, Brussels, or Zurich. Preferably Monaco for one of them as it is at sea level.
If he gets in shape to run the mile WR, then the 5000 is easily his. He just needs to get in a race.
When he ran 7:17 he was in better than 12:35 shape. I hope he gets back there, but who knows.
Not sure why it’s so dangerous to go for all 3. If his fitness is high for the 1500, it is high for the 5000. And when Jakob is in top shape, he’s shown he can race a ton without injury.
Yes but what I bolded is exactly where Stitchmo disagrees. He can’t be in WR shape for both the 15 and the 5000m. I think it’s impossible to say personally.
Interesting. I'd agree we can only speculate.
My general feeling is that fitness rises for all distances together (maybe not proportionally). I concede that for the people at the very top, specificity plays a little bit more of a role (Jakob in particular gets very specific with is in-season training according to how he talks). But I think that the way they emphasize endurance/threshold/volume so much and then work into 1500 specific training means that IF he eventually gets to 3:26:00 shape, it will mean that he had his highest volume/load ever in the months before. Which will mean his best 5000 shape ever, which would be better than 12:35.
Maybe he wouldn't get them at the same time, but I think having the ability to get 12:35 in the months before 3:26 is essentially just a prerequisite. He's been there (or close) before, just hasn't raced to truly demonstrate his ability.
But the biggest question is whether he can build back up to training how he was in 2024 and early 2025. He may not ever get there again.
Jakob can do it if he stays healthy, which at this point might be a bigger if than we’d like to admit. But let’s assume his injury woes are behind him and he has a real shot at this.
In 2023, he ran 7:54.10 on June 9 and 4:43.13 on September 8. In between those races, he broke 3:30 four times (3:27.14 SB) and doubled at Worlds, yet still managed to end the season with that insane 3:43.73/7:23.63 double in Eugene. It’s pretty obvious he could’ve broken four records that year with an easier schedule.
Looking ahead to 2026, the two big events he’ll have his eyes on are the European Champs (Aug 10-16) and Ultimate Champs (Sep 11-13). That leaves the rest of the season to hunt records. Here is the DL calendar:
With all that in mind, a bare-bones racing schedule might look something like what I’ve written below. Note that this doesn’t take into account non-DL races or dabbling at off distances. It also assumes his 1 mile and 5k attempts will be one-and-done.
Oslo - 5000m WR attempt Monaco - 1500m WR attempt London - 1 Mile WR attempt EC - 1500m and 5000m double Silesia - 1500m WR attempt Brussels - 1500m WR attempt UC - 1500m and 5000m double
We can't assume his injury woes are behind him - and neither can he. He has shown a recurring susceptibility to Achilles injuries. That remains and given the enormous demands he makes on his body it is more likely than not he will experience these problems again unless he substantially reduces his training and competing. But there goes the chance of any world records.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen tell norwegian press he is aiming for breaking the 1500, mile and 5000 in the upcoming season. He is already picking the time and place for it. Can he do it?
He has small chances to win any worldwide title in the 1500m.
There are too much runners who have a killing finish.
You never end with your arrogance.
His chances of becoming President of the United States are equally relevant — in other words, none. The issue at hand is his chances of breaking the three world records mentioned.
He has small chances to win any worldwide title in the 1500m.
There are too much runners who have a killing finish.
You never end with your arrogance.
His chances of becoming President of the United States are equally relevant — in other words, none. The issue at hand is his chances of breaking the three world records mentioned.
That chance has passed. He now has to manage injury.
I absolutely think he can do it if he is healthy next year. He has 0.7 to drop in the 1500m. That is within range. The mile record he can get just with 2023 shape and less wind. The 5000m record would be his by a lot if he were in 7:17 3k shape again. This year, he was too sharp too early and did not give himself a break after indoors, which led to the injuries, and you see that repeatedly with guys who are running incredibly well in April or May.
“Too sharp too early and did not give himself a break after indoors”
Wise words.
Would love to see Grant stay away from indoors in 2026, do a long build for the summer of 2026 and be on the line when Jacob attempts the world record in the outdoor 5,000 m. Grant could get the world record.
everybody should run a light schedule for indoors. some 12 k cross country after a decent rest like 2 races and 2 indoor 1500s or something...
it appears to me that around last years indoors before injury jacob was in the best shape of his life, but pushed the envelope too hard, with injury.
if he's not injured and takes the foot a little off the gas at the right moments, and has the pacing the records go. and draft properly, instead of 3 meters behind ....
anaerobically, jacob appears to be the same as all the top 1500 guys, and runs a bit of his kick out of himself due to his tactics.
with the rest, who knows? maybe hocker will win a race? laros will be ultra motivated. there are new guys to make a mark, and drug busts, a couple of guys blood passport can't be solid at all...