I’m 100% on board the Hedengren hype train now. Was being cautious for a girl just out of high school, but she’s proving herself to be one of the best in the country already, nevermind her age. She could be our best contender for a w5k medal in 2028 (and running the times that will take).
Reminder that when she ran her 5k pb, she took the pace during the hard laps, and the collegians sat on her and kicked at the end. Now she seems to be clearly better than all of them. 14:30 looks on the table outdoors to me.
After what I've seen of her so far this fall I would bet my house on her running 14:30 in the right race next spring. I'm 66 and have been following athletics since the early 70's, and have seen plenty of great female runners and athletes in my life, and she's right up there with the best I've ever seen. I really believe she is that good.
If i were betting my house I'd probably stick to 14:3x, if I were betting my car then I'm totally in for 14:30
The chances of Jane’s younger sister being as good, are less than 1%. I can’t think of a GOAT level athlete in any sport that had a sibling that was as good, or better.
Ok, but Jane isn't GOAT level (at least not yet). And almost by definition, if you're GOAT level, you're the best in your family.
Still, there actually are a sizable number of sibling pairs (and groups) who were both/all very, very good, if not all GOAT level, then at least competitive on the world stage.
The Ingebrigtsen brothers The Dibaba sisters The Bekele brothers The Borlee almost-relay The Harting brothers (discus)
And in other sports: The Brownlee brothers in triathlon (one with two Olympic golds, the other with a silver and a bronze) The Williams sisters in tennis The Safin(a) siblings in tennis The Campbell sisters in swimming The Walsh sisters in swimming The Manning brothers in the NFL
And there are certainly more examples that I've missed.
You may find it surprising that sibling pairs aren't *even more* successful than this. I don't know what to say to that, except that the chance of any given person being #1 in the world is very, very low and your chances are far better if your siblings are elite athletes than otherwise.
Certainly being born to the Hedengrens is a big advantage as far as running ability, but there is still going to be a wide range of talent within the population of potential genetic outcomes. Jane is multiple standard deviations above the theoretical mean for this pool. Grant Fisher received the best possible running genes from his parents but his younger brother, Mark, never broke 5:00.