clovis xcc wrote:
New record
Course record, not state
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111
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Spencer ran in Vaporfly. Fernandez woulda run 14:00 in super shoes.
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the slowest guy in the tent wrote:
It's still absolutely absurd to me that Aaron Sahlman holds the NXN course record when he hadn't won a single XC race in the rest of his high school career, was primarily known as an 800 guy until then, and is neither the fastest runner in his family nor the fastest runner at his high school that year. And the way it happened, with his teammate Leo Young leading most of the race and then nearly collapsing on the final hill, was insane too. Has there ever been a bigger upset at a national meet?
There is of course beautiful humor in A. Sahlman's first ever xc win coming at NXN and his holding the course record. The race itself was even hilarious as he went out in 1:50, faded, then closed in 1:50. (Yes, I exaggerate for effect, but not by much)
Let's be fair though he ran 4 years of hs xc. As a jr he was 6th in the US in xc, behind three of his teammates.
If some guy who was 6th at nats as a jr goes on to win as a Senior, that's not really unusual. Plenty of FL and NXN senior winners did much worse as jrs.
So it's funny that he has not won any races, due his fast NBP team, but not really an upset, since he was a top 5-10 contender coming in.
In fact 2024 winner Charlie Vause may even have been a bigger surprise.
On Sahlman's record. Records are records, the course was clean and dry that year.
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Dudewhat? wrote:
Spencer ran in Vaporfly. Fernandez woulda run 14:00 in super shoes.
I remember watching an XC invite a few years ago. The surprise winner was the one guy who wore Vaporflys. He hasn’t looked better (good, but not better) than the other guys before or after, but he was on the day he was only one in VF.
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Dudewhat? wrote:
Spencer ran in Vaporfly. Fernandez woulda run 14:00 in super shoes.
Respectfully- super shoes are worth like 3 seconds a mile, not 8.
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Fan of Spencer wrote:
I preface this message by saying I am a big fan of Spencer. Although it’s been years since I’ve been to this course, but it’s groomed similarly to the way Mount sac did over the years. This is not taking away from his performance, but the surface was amazing. Prior to the race, they put some water on it to take away, adding efficiency to the runners. Nevertheless, there was a great race for he and everybody else.
I don't think the comparison to Mt. Sac is apt. The late 90s refurb to to Mt. Sac fundamentally changed the make up of the course, and you can see it in the times that were ran before and after that point. There is no such inflection point for Woodward.
I would guess the purpose of spraying down the course at Clovis is more so to combat dust than improve footing, and I would wager the improvement to times, especially among leaders who wouldn't be affected by dust anyway, is negligible.
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201 speed rating for Jackson. German would’ve been sub 13:55.
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That data is heavily skewed. It looks like German ran 14:24 to me.
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I have lost all my respect for meylan
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It was the same course, with similar conditions. The only difference maker was time. All I'm understanding from this speed ranking is that 18 years ago, Spencer would have ran 211 for a speed ranking
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flawed data wrote:
It was the same course, with similar conditions. The only difference maker was time. All I'm understanding from this speed ranking is that 18 years ago, Spencer would have ran 211 for a speed ranking
Either that or Fernandez would have ran 199
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splits accurate? wrote:
Am I reading that correctly? 9:52 at 2.1 and 14:16 at the finish means he ran 4:24 the last mile (which is net uphill on that course)
4:24 for the last mile uphill might be the most impressive part. That record withstood 5 of the best HS XC runners ever in the NP guys, and Spencer comes out and obliterates it with a nasty final split. Can't wait to see what he does the rest of this year.
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78 kids under 16:00. Wow.
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Ok 201 is dumb. I agree with Meylan that Spencer's mark is obviously not as absurd as 14:24 but it's at least 203.
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30
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Peach Pit wrote:
splits accurate? wrote:
Am I reading that correctly? 9:52 at 2.1 and 14:16 at the finish means he ran 4:24 the last mile (which is net uphill on that course)
4:24 for the last mile uphill might be the most impressive part. That record withstood 5 of the best HS XC runners ever in the NP guys, and Spencer comes out and obliterates it with a nasty final split. Can't wait to see what he does the rest of this year.
That last split mat is actually around .97-.975 miles to the finish since the start and finish lines aren’t exactly the same. So about 4:31-4:32 for the last mile. Also, they announced 9:18 at the 2 mile. So he went 4:35 (net downhill), 4:43 (tough hilly mile) and 4:31 pace for last 1.1 miles. It’s incredibly good any way you look at it.
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Sjsjsjjsjs wrote:
mictlantecuhtli wrote:
can't wait for the speed ratings on this. conditions were great this morning but he DEMOLISHED the field on maybe the most consistently tested course in the country. 28 second win against some incredible runners. I could see something around 204-5.
Wild guess, 2nd place will be 190-91 and his rating will be pegged off that, which only gets him to 200-201.
Yup. It is what it is folks. Meylan isn’t perfect, but he is very good at this and if you watch it for a few years you can often get a good feel for how a given race will turn out. You can’t just look at the winner or the times. It’s relative.
Post season for this Doug Soles coached runner will be really fun.
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Sjsjsjjsjs wrote:
Sjsjsjjsjs wrote:
Wild guess, 2nd place will be 190-91 and his rating will be pegged off that, which only gets him to 200-201.
Yup. It is what it is folks. Meylan isn’t perfect, but he is very good at this and if you watch it for a few years you can often get a good feel for how a given race will turn out. You can’t just look at the winner or the times. It’s relative.
Post season for this Doug Soles coached runner will be really fun.
Soles might be able to match Brosnan for guys who broke 4 in HS.
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Edited to quote post
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted. Reason provided: Edited to quote post40 -
The Idiot Marathoner wrote:
Fan of Spencer wrote:
I preface this message by saying I am a big fan of Spencer. Although it’s been years since I’ve been to this course, but it’s groomed similarly to the way Mount sac did over the years. This is not taking away from his performance, but the surface was amazing. Prior to the race, they put some water on it to take away, adding efficiency to the runners. Nevertheless, there was a great race for he and everybody else.
I don't think the comparison to Mt. Sac is apt. The late 90s refurb to to Mt. Sac fundamentally changed the make up of the course, and you can see it in the times that were ran before and after that point. There is no such inflection point for Woodward.
I would guess the purpose of spraying down the course at Clovis is more so to combat dust than improve footing, and I would wager the improvement to times, especially among leaders who wouldn't be affected by dust anyway, is negligible.
More specifically, the purpose of combating dust caused by the golfcart/motorcycle broadcast -- although I would assume packing a soft surface into a harder one would help improve times as a side effect.
It seems like every broadcast now needs this type of live-feed to keep up the viewer expectations. For grass courses its no problem, but for dusty courses, the lead vehicle can kick up dust right into 1st place's face. See the NxR SE regional 2024 vs 2023 where there was no lead-vehicle feed.
I expect watering the course to become the norm on dirt courses to address dust issues while still keeping the lead-vehicle broadcast. If more dirt courses are watered this year we may start to get enough samples to tease out the effect of watering on runner's time savings -- or someone can run a controlled experiment to test this.
My guess is time-savings are certainly under 2 seconds per mile even on the dustiest dirt courses. Props to Spencer for being a beast.
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