I think he has a real shot at 2:03 high. I made the argument after Boston that he was in 2:04 low shape at worst in a Valencia type race. Boston conditions were good, but unless you have a hurricane behind you, it's at least a minute slower than Valencia. The guys he was with in Boston are all 2:02/2:03 guys, and he was pushing the pace late into the race.
The article makes it sound like this was essentially a perfect training block too. He got a femoral stress reaction before the 2024 Olympic Trials, a torn quad before the Olympics, and a strained quad before the 2025 Houston Half, and ran great after all of them. Now he's put up the highest mileage of his life and feels great. Cutting 60s off your pb is tough at his level, but when the WR is 2:00, it's definitely not impossible. Didn't he cut it by more than a minute to run what he did at Boston?
I'll add the caveat that maybe he's had to back off in training previously due to injury, and letting his body recover could've helped him run better. My gut feeling is that's not likely, but it's more than possible. 2:04 low is more likely than 2:03, and 2:05 low is likelier still, but he's on a fast course, and he only has to pb by 30s to cut a minute off the AR. I think the faster course + the greatest buildup of his life will be worth at least 1s/mile compared to Boston.
I agree with your thoughts here. One thing to note is the motivation. I don't think, if he's alone in second, that he runs that hard in the last 4 miles. He would have run fast, 2:05.30-40 probably, but he wouldn't have pushed to quite that level without the competition. Which is why I think that Mantz has 2:04:50 - 2:05:21 in his legs right now on a good weather day, but he needs people to run with. Competition makes the best of us, from high school up to the pros.
Whatever his race in Chicago, and I hope that we eventually get to see him run Berlin, London and Valencia. I'd really like to be able to gauge his talent versus the rest of the world on some of those courses. Yes, we've seen him in the Olympics, but c'mon Americans, go run Fukuoka and take a shot.
I think that, without detouring this entire discussion into PED's, I consider the unquestionably "clean" Marathon WR as Suzuki's 2:04:56, and I think Mantz has a good shot at that on the right day, right weather in range, and people around him to run with.
FYI - Daniel do Nascimento was busted for steroids prior to the Paris Olympics and is currently serving a multi-year ban, so he needs to not be on this short list.
Kengo Suzuki doesn't appear, I think, on anyone's list of potential dopers whatsoever.
I think he has a real shot at 2:03 high. I made the argument after Boston that he was in 2:04 low shape at worst in a Valencia type race. Boston conditions were good, but unless you have a hurricane behind you, it's at least a minute slower than Valencia. The guys he was with in Boston are all 2:02/2:03 guys, and he was pushing the pace late into the race.
The article makes it sound like this was essentially a perfect training block too. He got a femoral stress reaction before the 2024 Olympic Trials, a torn quad before the Olympics, and a strained quad before the 2025 Houston Half, and ran great after all of them. Now he's put up the highest mileage of his life and feels great. Cutting 60s off your pb is tough at his level, but when the WR is 2:00, it's definitely not impossible. Didn't he cut it by more than a minute to run what he did at Boston?
I'll add the caveat that maybe he's had to back off in training previously due to injury, and letting his body recover could've helped him run better. My gut feeling is that's not likely, but it's more than possible. 2:04 low is more likely than 2:03, and 2:05 low is likelier still, but he's on a fast course, and he only has to pb by 30s to cut a minute off the AR. I think the faster course + the greatest buildup of his life will be worth at least 1s/mile compared to Boston.
I agree with your thoughts here. One thing to note is the motivation. I don't think, if he's alone in second, that he runs that hard in the last 4 miles. He would have run fast, 2:05.30-40 probably, but he wouldn't have pushed to quite that level without the competition. Which is why I think that Mantz has 2:04:50 - 2:05:21 in his legs right now on a good weather day, but he needs people to run with. Competition makes the best of us, from high school up to the pros.
Whatever his race in Chicago, and I hope that we eventually get to see him run Berlin, London and Valencia. I'd really like to be able to gauge his talent versus the rest of the world on some of those courses. Yes, we've seen him in the Olympics, but c'mon Americans, go run Fukuoka and take a shot.
I think that, without detouring this entire discussion into PED's, I consider the unquestionably "clean" Marathon WR as Suzuki's 2:04:56, and I think Mantz has a good shot at that on the right day, right weather in range, and people around him to run with.
If you listen to Mantz on his most recent Citius podcast you’ll hear him talk about how he ran those last few miles of Boston tactically, hoping to save it for a sprint finish and beat those two Africans. Looking back he thinks he should have just closed much harder and faster and thrown the tactics out the window. Sounds like he may have had a slightly quicker time in his legs, but who can really say.
sooner of later the track talent in the usa has to translate into the marathon.
that means a 203.
i would bet 204 high with favorable odds
How many 27:25 10K guys have run 2:03? You guys are nuts.
How many 27:25 guys have the endurance to run 59:17 on a windy day? Also he's matched that on the roads so what are we even doing here. What's the marathon potential for a 59-low guy on a good weather day on a flat course like Chicago? Is it not 2:03:xx? That's the right question to be asking. I think the forecast is trending just a little warmer than it was originally looking. I think he'll land in the 2:04:30-2:05:30 range if he gets it right on the day. He should go out right @ AR pace. Chicago is fast but some turns and the crowd support drops off after halfway. Wind usually is from the north which means closing miles likely into the wind when you're likely running alone. Hopefully he has a group to run in and that group sticks together deeper & deeper into the race.
I agree with your thoughts here. One thing to note is the motivation. I don't think, if he's alone in second, that he runs that hard in the last 4 miles. He would have run fast, 2:05.30-40 probably, but he wouldn't have pushed to quite that level without the competition. Which is why I think that Mantz has 2:04:50 - 2:05:21 in his legs right now on a good weather day, but he needs people to run with. Competition makes the best of us, from high school up to the pros.
Whatever his race in Chicago, and I hope that we eventually get to see him run Berlin, London and Valencia. I'd really like to be able to gauge his talent versus the rest of the world on some of those courses. Yes, we've seen him in the Olympics, but c'mon Americans, go run Fukuoka and take a shot.
I think that, without detouring this entire discussion into PED's, I consider the unquestionably "clean" Marathon WR as Suzuki's 2:04:56, and I think Mantz has a good shot at that on the right day, right weather in range, and people around him to run with.
If you listen to Mantz on his most recent Citius podcast you’ll hear him talk about how he ran those last few miles of Boston tactically, hoping to save it for a sprint finish and beat those two Africans. Looking back he thinks he should have just closed much harder and faster and thrown the tactics out the window. Sounds like he may have had a slightly quicker time in his legs, but who can really say.
Pretty ridiculous thing to say. He could have run faster but wanted to run tactically to win in a sprint finish.
So when he runs Chicago in 2:08 he will say he could have run much faster but wanted to run tactically (slower) to win in a sprint finish. LOL. Yeah right Connor.
How many 27:25 10K guys have run 2:03? You guys are nuts.
How many 27:25 guys have the endurance to run 59:17 on a windy day? Also he's matched that on the roads so what are we even doing here. What's the marathon potential for a 59-low guy on a good weather day on a flat course like Chicago? Is it not 2:03:xx? That's the right question to be asking. I think the forecast is trending just a little warmer than it was originally looking. I think he'll land in the 2:04:30-2:05:30 range if he gets it right on the day. He should go out right @ AR pace. Chicago is fast but some turns and the crowd support drops off after halfway. Wind usually is from the north which means closing miles likely into the wind when you're likely running alone. Hopefully he has a group to run in and that group sticks together deeper & deeper into the race.
Jacob Kiplimo ran 56:42 and Mantz has run 59 low. You are saying they should run about the same marathon?
The fastest time on a record-eligible course by a man not of recent African ancestry or PED allegations…
Lol! “PED allegations”? 2:03 should be synonymous with PED allegations. No one is running 2:03 off “good ol’ fashioned hard-work and gumption.”
1) The only non-African born faster than 2:04:56 is banned Drug Cheat Daniel do Nascimento with a 2:04:51. Place 97 on the all-time list. There are few Europeans (ER is 2:03:36 I think) and 1 Israeli ahead of him, but rojo prefers birth place over nationality.
2) Likely most of the sub-2:04 runners are dopers, I agree. But - considering the WR is 2:00:35, under nowadays testing, I'd argue that a 2:03:59 should be possible for a clean runner. After all, does doping under the eyes of the AIU really provide a boost of 3+ minutes for a male marathoner?
I’m so profoundly bored of this PR hype going into any major.
Genuinely, when was the last time we had someone throwing around the “I’m in record shape” chat and then came through on it?
Never happens. Every year I see posters here saying Mantz is going to run 2:03 or 2:04 and he ends up running 2:07:47. Scott Fauble saying the same stuff - "I am in 2:05 shape" and he runs 2:10.
Funny you mention that, I was just going to say that we should have all of these fast track athletes run on cinders and then see if they are fast anymore.
Of course. Also, the Indy 500 next year should revert to ancient Rome chariot races with horses instead of combustion engines.
I’m so profoundly bored of this PR hype going into any major.
Genuinely, when was the last time we had someone throwing around the “I’m in record shape” chat and then came through on it?
Never happens. Every year I see posters here saying Mantz is going to run 2:03 or 2:04 and he ends up running 2:07:47. Scott Fauble saying the same stuff - "I am in 2:05 shape" and he runs 2:10.
Except not once have I seen someone say Mantz is in 2:03 shape and certainly not in 2023 in his third ever attempt. He has run 2:05:08 at Boston. With the slight headwind this year, it was legitimate, a mere 23 seconds behind a 2:02:4x guy from Chicago.
Mantz has run huge PRs, twice, over the half marathon and another huge PR over 20k a mere month ago. He’s much fitter than in years past. And even Eyestone is indicating this.
We will see. The only thing that might derail him is getting caught up in the atmosphere and going out way too fast, only to be stuck running the solo, wind-swept final miles alone. Which is why I hope he comes through halfway in 1:02:15ish…