This is a question I’m genuinely interested in getting an answer to, because you are not the only one that highlights pack running. I can understand the moral support provided to the weaker runners elevating them when running in a pack, but that is at some expense to finishing times to the stronger runners in the pack? Maybe the argument is the stronger runners will just be able to kick harder if they were metering it down earlier.
But maybe the moral support is not as important at this level, versus high school runners. So then, are their other reasons , like strategies in positioning a pack on the course?
Pack running is great, but as you point out, the positioning of the pack means much too. NM in 2021 had a very tight pack, and there have been others, but they did not have the runners far enough up. And this year, there are probably 4 teams that can have 3-4 runners each ahead of NDs 2nd, maybe 1st runner.
This is where I think the landscape has changed. Namely, I don't think there will be 4 teams with 4 runners ahead of Notre Dame's second. The entire team has bumped up a level based on recent performances. 7 is running where 4 was last year and their 1-3 have bumped significantly to the point that they will be competitive with the top at NC State, Stanford etc. The entire team has shifted upward a level. But, Nuttycombe will be the judge of all of this. On a side note, if Florida or NM obtained one or two more foreign transfers this whole discussion would be moot. That is what I mean by a paradigm shift. This will happen soon (for example what if the Washington State freshman was at Florida?). The sport is moving in that direction and we will have two tiers: elite 2-4 foreign recruit teams followed by elite domestic teams.
Your post is one of those classic with multiple controversial takes (Notre Dame, other teams, and the future of the sport), thus readers want to both upvote and downvote its various parts.
You say, “Notre Dame's … 1-3 have bumped significantly to the point that they will be competitive with the top at NC State, Stanford etc.”
Who specifically do you have at ND’s 1-3? I’m currently seeing Dalton at 1, who was a 33:41/15:54 just last spring. Do you understand how those compare against a runner like Hartman (or an on-point Olemomoi, etc.)?
LACCTIC’s current rating for Dalton is 15:52; she went 15:53 at the Joe Paine 5k, beating Allie Zealand by 1 sec.
Can you provide some insight on how Joe Piane’s 5k course compares with the Louisville 5k course (where Jelelgo went 15:45)?
Pack running is great, but as you point out, the positioning of the pack means much too. NM in 2021 had a very tight pack, and there have been others, but they did not have the runners far enough up. And this year, there are probably 4 teams that can have 3-4 runners each ahead of NDs 2nd, maybe 1st runner.
This is where I think the landscape has changed. Namely, I don't think there will be 4 teams with 4 runners ahead of Notre Dame's second. The entire team has bumped up a level based on recent performances. 7 is running where 4 was last year and their 1-3 have bumped significantly to the point that they will be competitive with the top at NC State, Stanford etc. The entire team has shifted upward a level. But, Nuttycombe will be the judge of all of this. On a side note, if Florida or NM obtained one or two more foreign transfers this whole discussion would be moot. That is what I mean by a paradigm shift. This will happen soon (for example what if the Washington State freshman was at Florida?). The sport is moving in that direction and we will have two tiers: elite 2-4 foreign recruit teams followed by elite domestic teams.
do you genuinely think that Notre Dame has 3 runners capable of being competitive with Hartman/Gapes or Bunnage/Kennedy? 3 of whom were in the top 8 in the country last year and the other was an all-american and then ran 8:42 and 15:10?
This is where I think the landscape has changed. Namely, I don't think there will be 4 teams with 4 runners ahead of Notre Dame's second. The entire team has bumped up a level based on recent performances. 7 is running where 4 was last year and their 1-3 have bumped significantly to the point that they will be competitive with the top at NC State, Stanford etc. The entire team has shifted upward a level. But, Nuttycombe will be the judge of all of this. On a side note, if Florida or NM obtained one or two more foreign transfers this whole discussion would be moot. That is what I mean by a paradigm shift. This will happen soon (for example what if the Washington State freshman was at Florida?). The sport is moving in that direction and we will have two tiers: elite 2-4 foreign recruit teams followed by elite domestic teams.
Not just Nutty, but ACC will show how Notre Dame pack lines up with NC State.
Florida - even with a 5th, they will still have challenge of no depth. You can win with 5, but no way to cover just 1 off performance at nats...and it's cold on Missouri.
BYU/NC State v International recruiters. None of the BYU or NC State kids would go to NM, Cal Baptist, or Louisville no matter how hard a coach tried. BYU attracts Mormons and a few non Mormon born again Christians. NC State is the current favorite flavor for the top US girls. If not NC St, then Oregon, UW, Colorado, Northern Arizona etc, but not a second tier team. Taylor and Henes are not making any USA statement, they just happen right now to be able to gobble up most of the best US kids.
Your post is one of those classic with multiple controversial takes (Notre Dame, other teams, and the future of the sport), thus readers want to both upvote and downvote its various parts.
You say, “Notre Dame's … 1-3 have bumped significantly to the point that they will be competitive with the top at NC State, Stanford etc.”
Who specifically do you have at ND’s 1-3? I’m currently seeing Dalton at 1, who was a 33:41/15:54 just last spring. Do you understand how those compare against a runner like Hartman (or an on-point Olemomoi, etc.)?
LACCTIC’s current rating for Dalton is 15:52; she went 15:53 at the Joe Paine 5k, beating Allie Zealand by 1 sec.
Can you provide some insight on how Joe Piane’s 5k course compares with the Louisville 5k course (where Jelelgo went 15:45)?
Edit: LACCTiC is now showing Chisholm’s 15:43 rating is actually higher than Dalton’s. Chishom ran 15:23 last winter, and has no 10k time. (LACCTIC understandably likes good 10k chops.)
Pack running is great, but as you point out, the positioning of the pack means much too. NM in 2021 had a very tight pack, and there have been others, but they did not have the runners far enough up. And this year, there are probably 4 teams that can have 3-4 runners each ahead of NDs 2nd, maybe 1st runner.
This is where I think the landscape has changed. Namely, I don't think there will be 4 teams with 4 runners ahead of Notre Dame's second. The entire team has bumped up a level based on recent performances. 7 is running where 4 was last year and their 1-3 have bumped significantly to the point that they will be competitive with the top at NC State, Stanford etc. The entire team has shifted upward a level. But, Nuttycombe will be the judge of all of this. On a side note, if Florida or NM obtained one or two more foreign transfers this whole discussion would be moot. That is what I mean by a paradigm shift. This will happen soon (for example what if the Washington State freshman was at Florida?). The sport is moving in that direction and we will have two tiers: elite 2-4 foreign recruit teams followed by elite domestic teams.
Here is what I have for the top 7 runners for top 5 teams in terms of international runners.
BYU - all top 7 US runners recruited out of HS (all also class of 2022 or later)
Florida - 5/7 int’l, 3 of them new to FL this year
NC State, 2/7 int’l, 1 of which is new by transfer
New Mexico, top 5 int’l, I think all were there last year too
My main conclusion from this initial exercise is that NC State is the favorite (which deviates from preseason polls), and a secondary conclusion is that Florida will need something extraordinary to happen, particularly with their 5th (which would likely need to be an athlete they haven’t run yet) in order to strongly contend with NC State for the trophy.
We can parse and parcel it further if desired, but I agree that we can now wait for Nutty and PreNats to provide further information that NC State is the favorite.😁
We await the 2025 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country National Coaches’ Poll for Week 3 to be released soon, to see if they still have BYU as the favorite.
This week’s coaches’ poll still has BYU #1, NC State #2, and Fl #3.
“BYU remains on top as the unanimous favorite for the fourth consecutive poll.”
Being unanimous, I guess that makes me quite the contrarian, but this is how I currently see it:
She hasn’t run any race at NC State yet. Engelhardt just burned her red shirt last week, maybe Templier and Armitage are considering redshirt? Ellie Shea also has the option.
We await the 2025 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country National Coaches’ Poll for Week 3 to be released soon, to see if they still have BYU as the favorite.
This week’s coaches’ poll still has BYU #1, NC State #2, and Fl #3.
“BYU remains on top as the unanimous favorite for the fourth consecutive poll.”
Being unanimous, I guess that makes me quite the contrarian, but this is how I currently see it:
Hartman covers Hedengren
Gapes covers Hutchins
Napoleon shadows Chamberlain
Michalak (15:45) trumps Rohatinsky (15:55-16:15)
Putman (15:51) trumps Lovell (16:02-16:22)
Early season races are simply glorified practice runs. BYU is the defending champion and they got a superstar recruit. Before they lose a race, they will be ranked #1 going into at least the conference finals when things start to matter.
This week’s coaches’ poll still has BYU #1, NC State #2, and Fl #3.
“BYU remains on top as the unanimous favorite for the fourth consecutive poll.”
Being unanimous, I guess that makes me quite the contrarian, but this is how I currently see it:
Hartman covers Hedengren
Gapes covers Hutchins
Napoleon shadows Chamberlain
Michalak (15:45) trumps Rohatinsky (15:55-16:15)
Putman (15:51) trumps Lovell (16:02-16:22)
Not really contrarian. Coaches in poll are not using lacctic, just 2025 race results and judgment. They have just as little idea as we do exactly who will be healthy to be top 7 on nats day on other teams.
Notice how long it took last year for coaches to drop NC State in the poll, although it was clear to many that they were going to have an off year.
Providence similar this year. They lost a ton via graduation, but still had a good early poll rank.
This week’s coaches’ poll still has BYU #1, NC State #2, and Fl #3.
“BYU remains on top as the unanimous favorite for the fourth consecutive poll.”
Being unanimous, I guess that makes me quite the contrarian, but this is how I currently see it:
Hartman covers Hedengren
Gapes covers Hutchins
Napoleon shadows Chamberlain
Michalak (15:45) trumps Rohatinsky (15:55-16:15)
Putman (15:51) trumps Lovell (16:02-16:22)
Hartman covering Hedengren is in no way a certainty. I’d give the nod to Hedengren. Agree on all the on all the others.
Are you not inferring "covers" to mean roughly equals out? Hartman was 5th last year. Even if Hedengren wins the whole thing i'd say if Hartman is 5th again a 4 point gap covers pretty well.
Hartman covering Hedengren is in no way a certainty. I’d give the nod to Hedengren. Agree on all the on all the others.
Are you not inferring "covers" to mean roughly equals out? Hartman was 5th last year. Even if Hedengren wins the whole thing i'd say if Hartman is 5th again a 4 point gap covers pretty well.
Forget about Hartman or the team title. If Hedengren can win it all this year, she will be the GOAT in HS and college distance running. The best athlete we’ve ever seen. Nobody is even close to her achievements.
Are you not inferring "covers" to mean roughly equals out? Hartman was 5th last year. Even if Hedengren wins the whole thing i'd say if Hartman is 5th again a 4 point gap covers pretty well.
Forget about Hartman or the team title. If Hedengren can win it all this year, she will be the GOAT in HS and college distance running. The best athlete we’ve ever seen. Nobody is even close to her achievements.
I dont think she will win the title. I think Lemngole and Kosgei are the top 2 in whatever order. I just put her first to illustrate why i think its a bit odd when even in the best possible result for Hedengren to not think Hartman can "cover" her result in terms of a team title race.