Not exactly the question Rojo asked, but in global final 5ks since 2000, there aren't even that many winners who closed <53 sec irrespective of winning time. Zero 5k winners that closed in <53 in a sub 13 race. The closest is Farah in 2016 (13:03 closing in 52.8).
Also worth shouting out Bekele 10k in 2004 (27:05, closed in ~ 53.0)
This really highlights how weak Gressier’s win was. I know they wound it up from 2k out and the conditions were bad, but it’s the closest winning time by about a minute and still over 54 seconds on the last lap. Bekele consistently closed faster in races won almost two minutes faster.
Well, if you consider that he ran almost all of it from lane 2 and part of it nearly lane 3, then it may even be better than Lagat’s 51.xx. And a final 100 of 12.5? Insane.
What approx time would Hocker's final 400m convert to if he has run it in lane 1instead of most of it in lane 2? Gault seemed to indicate 51 high, which is blazing fast snd on par with Lagat.
Not exactly the question Rojo asked, but in global final 5ks since 2000, there aren't even that many winners who closed <53 sec irrespective of winning time. Zero 5k winners that closed in <53 in a sub 13 race. The closest is Farah in 2016 (13:03 closing in 52.8).
Also worth shouting out Bekele 10k in 2004 (27:05, closed in ~ 53.0)
This really highlights how weak Gressier’s win was. I know they wound it up from 2k out and the conditions were bad, but it’s the closest winning time by about a minute and still over 54 seconds on the last lap. Bekele consistently closed faster in races won almost two minutes faster.
What approx time would Hocker's final 400m convert to if he has run it in lane 1instead of most of it in lane 2? Gault seemed to indicate 51 high, which is blazing fast snd on par with Lagat.
He ran 407m in 52.62 if he ran the whole lap in lane 2. So 51.71?
Thanks for putting this together, real solid post.I have to ask, how did you pull all of this data together?
Since JG has been covering these finals for LRC, he pretty reliably puts the last lap split in his article.
Before that, a fun trip down the YouTube rabbit hole. For the few where the last lap split wasn’t shown on the broadcast when the winner crossed the line, I’d calculate it from the winning time and the cumulative time with a lap to go (again usually shown on the screen). So for a few of those, the last lap split is leader to leader.
that being said, from rewatching the last lap of all those races, it’s pretty rare the winner isn’t within 1 or 2 stride lengths of the leader at the bell. What a race by Hocker.
What approx time would Hocker's final 400m convert to if he has run it in lane 1instead of most of it in lane 2? Gault seemed to indicate 51 high, which is blazing fast snd on par with Lagat.
He ran 407m in 52.62 if he ran the whole lap in lane 2. So 51.71?
Thanks. Hit down arrow on your reply by mistake. Incredible final 400m. Wish we could have seen Hocker in the 1500m, too.
Surprised no one has mentioned it yet, but FYI in the very own championship record race, both Kipchoge and El G closed in 52.6 ish in a 12:52 race back in Paris 2003.
Surprised no one has mentioned it yet, but FYI in the very own championship record race, both Kipchoge and El G closed in 52.6 ish in a 12:52 race back in Paris 2003.
This was in Bagbagbags table 52.6 v his reporting of 53.4 "2003 - 5000m - Kipchoge - 12:52 - 53.4"
Thanks for putting this together, real solid post.I have to ask, how did you pull all of this data together?
Since JG has been covering these finals for LRC, he pretty reliably puts the last lap split in his article.
Before that, a fun trip down the YouTube rabbit hole. For the few where the last lap split wasn’t shown on the broadcast when the winner crossed the line, I’d calculate it from the winning time and the cumulative time with a lap to go (again usually shown on the screen). So for a few of those, the last lap split is leader to leader.
that being said, from rewatching the last lap of all those races, it’s pretty rare the winner isn’t within 1 or 2 stride lengths of the leader at the bell. What a race by Hocker.
Thanks for putting this together, real solid post.I have to ask, how did you pull all of this data together?
Since JG has been covering these finals for LRC, he pretty reliably puts the last lap split in his article.
Before that, a fun trip down the YouTube rabbit hole. For the few where the last lap split wasn’t shown on the broadcast when the winner crossed the line, I’d calculate it from the winning time and the cumulative time with a lap to go (again usually shown on the screen). So for a few of those, the last lap split is leader to leader.
that being said, from rewatching the last lap of all those races, it’s pretty rare the winner isn’t within 1 or 2 stride lengths of the leader at the bell. What a race by Hocker.
It was pretty insane, honestly. This is one of those races when watching the replay, even knowing the outcome, there's that little voice in the back of your head thinking "Well, Hocker's out of it...". It's not just how fast his last lap was, it's how he did it; I've been following athletics since the 70's and it's hands down one of the best championship finishes I've ever witnessed (and yes, I understand "recency bias" is a thing.). The level of self-knowledge and confidence to play that game is off the charts imho. Once at this level, for me it's impossible to judge the best finish ever; too many variables like weather, pace changes during a race, DL vs a race after rounds (don't forget Cole had to run 13:13 in his heat; when I saw that I got a little nervous...), etc. He's in the headiest company possible at this point and that's enough.
Cole clearly seems to have stepped up his fitness big time in the last year and is at the cusp of his prime years; if he can stay healthy he is going to be one very very difficult nut to crack in any championship race for the foreseeable future. (Too bad we're 2 years away from the next one; an eternity in athletics.) He is arguably at the point where someone is going to have to run in the mid/low 12:40's to drop him before the sprint, and at the moment who is there that is going to do that in a no wavelight/no pacers WC/Oly final? We're talking about a full-strength Jakob or the equivalent being willing to take it out at near WR pace and keep drilling it until Cole gets sawed off the back, no small task. Just my .02 mind you.
I would also love to see him go for some big PR's in the off-championship year next season, not so sure that's the kind of thing which motivates him as much as going for global gold though. Personally I'd love to see a paced 3000 attempt, to me I'm feeling that might be his sweet spot right now. Anyway; hell of a race. Love him or hate him, we'll be talking about this one for a long time.
Hopefully this cements in Hocker’s brain that he has that type of ability/talent. And when he hugs the rail late in the race and lets his competitors box him in he is only helping them, not himself.
Hopefully this cements in Hocker’s brain that he has that type of ability/talent. And when he hugs the rail late in the race and lets his competitors box him in he is only helping them, not himself.
I think you're just calling it wrong. He's the most successful US 1500/5000 runner in 20 years. He doesn't need anyone's advice on race tactics. If he gets boxed in and can't get out one time out of 20, I trust that he's made a reasonable, calculated decision to give himself the best chance to win as often as possible.
Pretty sure Abraham Chebii ran a 52.xx last lap in kicking down Kenenisa Bekele in a 12:52 race during the old Golden League days of the early-mid 2000s. Chebii in full flight was an awesome thing to behold. Massive, massive stride.
I hate to be th shoe guy, but comparing today's performances with anything before 2019 isn't relevant. The shoes changed things in ways that are far too hard to estimate. It's a great result even post-2019. We see a lot of sub-13 races these days but I don't think I've seen one with this kind of close over the last 5 years
The shoes don't make up for the fact that everyone was DOPED TO THE GILLS back in the 90s and 2000s.
Squawk! Doped to the gills! Squawk! Polly wanna cracker! Squawk! Burrito! Squawk!
Not exactly the question Rojo asked, but in global final 5ks since 2000, there aren't even that many winners who closed <53 sec irrespective of winning time. Zero 5k winners that closed in <53 in a sub 13 race. The closest is Farah in 2016 (13:03 closing in 52.8).
Also worth shouting out Bekele 10k in 2004 (27:05, closed in ~ 53.0)
Great summary. Though not as fast as Hocker, the greatest last lap in WC history still belongs to Kipchoge in 2003. Still the WC record time for that race on old school shoes, and kicking down El G (and Bekele) at the very peak of his powers is >> than kicking down Kimeli and Gressier.