Here are the complete conditions in Tokyo for the month of September:
9.1 6p 84°79° S 10p 84°75° S
9.2 6p 84°78° SSW 10p 86°73° SSW
9.3 6p 84°79° S 10p 82°79° S
9.4 6p 81°77° SSE 10p 81°77° SSW
9.5 6p 77°77° SSE 10p 77°77° SE
9.6 6p 82°72° S 10p 81°72° S
9.7 6p 82°77° S 10p 81°77° S
9.8 6p 88°75° S 10p 82°79° S
9.9 6p 84°79° S 10p 82°81° S
9.10 6p 84°79° S 10p 82°79° S
9.11 6p 79°77° ENE 10p 77°73° NE
9.12 6p 79° 73° ENE 10p 77° 73° NE
9.13 Sa Day 1 6:05p M h3000sc 82° 75° SSW 7:50p W h1500 82° 75° SSW 9:30p W 10000 81° 79° SSW
9.14 Su Day 2 8:00a W Marathon 86° 75° SW 9:35a M h1500 86° 75° SW 9:05p W s1500 82° 81° E 9:30p M 10000 82° 81° ESE 9.15 M Day 3 7:30a M Marathon 79° 73° NE 10:30a W h3000sc 82° 73° NE 9:30p M s1500 81° 77° SE 9:55p M 3000sc 81° 77° SSE
9.16 Tu Day 4 7:35p M h800 84° 77° S 10:05p W 1500 82° 77° S
9.17 W Day 5 10:00p W 3000sc 84° 77° S 10:20p M 1500 84° 77° S
9.18 Th Day 6 8:00p W h800 79° 73° NE cloudy 9:45p M s800 75° 73° ENE rain
9.19 F Day 7 8:00p M h5000 (75.66 rain) 8:45p W s800 (74.66 rain)
9.20 Sa Day 8 9:30p W 5000 (77.73 rain) 10:20p M 800 (77.73 rain)
9.21 Su Day 9 7:30p W 800 (79.68) 7:45p M 5000 (79.68)
Jakob will stay with the leaders through 4K. At some point in the last 1K he will make a move for gold. Due to his lack of 1500-specific training, he won’t have his normal finishing speed. He will gas out in the last 300 and fade to 4th or 5th.
Am I missing something or why are people using the fact that Hocker couldn't make it out of a 3:35 heat without cheating as proof of how fit and strong he is?
Hocker was in the same race where Andreas Almgren solo ran the current world lead of 12:44 in hot conditions, and Hocker finished at like 7th and 13:09. He's shown absolutely nothing special in the 5000 and times would have to be down at the 13:30 range for him to be a real contender.
He was clearly in great fitness despite his bad tactics. He's also a 7:23 3k runner. And yes, I do expect the winning time to be much closer to 13:30 than 12:44. Every year, people are fooled into thinking the guy who ran 12:3x that year is the favorite for the world/Olympic 5k and it's always won by the 3:26 1500m guy and closely followed by the other sub 3:30 1500m guys (Katir, Kwemoi, etc). Mo Farah made a career winning the 5k being a 3:28 1500m guy disguised as a 10k guy.
Koltrast is mostly right here. Hocker only ran 12:57 after that 7:23 and laid an egg in Stockholm earlier this summer after saying he wanted to run 12:50. He’s never shown anything to indicate he has a chance in the typical 13:10 championship race. When he won USAs in 13:25, there was no preliminary round and his final 1k was still 5 seconds slower than Jakob’s in Paris.
Jakob doesn’t destroy everybody because he’s a 3:26 guy; he destroys them because he’s a 3:26 guy and a 12:40 guy (at least). Katir had 3:28 and 12:45, and Kwemoi was 10 years removed from his 1500 PB when he took silver last year. You’re wrong to think 1500 prowess alone predicts 5k championship success. Mo is a terrible example. He was easily good for mid 12:40s considering he closed a 12:53 in 52 seconds, plus he had that 26:46 with a massive close. The 3:28 is just the cherry on top. Without the requisite 5k/10k strength that speed becomes irrelevant.
Hocker only has a chance if it goes really slow. He’s not a 5k runner.
Jakob doesn’t destroy everybody because he’s a 3:26 guy; he destroys them because he’s a 3:26 guy and a 12:40 guy (at least).
Jakob is not a 12:40 guy. He's a 12:48 guy. Of course, I also believe he could have run faster in the right race sometime over the past few years. But then it's also disingenuous to call Hocker a 12:57 guy. In peak fitness (like he is now) and in a good paced fresh 5k race, I'd expect he could run 12:45.
Why is there not lots of talk about Almgren for the 5k? A few people mention him, but I feel he should be a favorite. Too tired from 10k? He's got the recent 12:44, he ran 3:32.0 a few years ago. He ran 1:45.5 when he was like 18 as well.
Jakob doesn’t destroy everybody because he’s a 3:26 guy; he destroys them because he’s a 3:26 guy and a 12:40 guy (at least).
Jakob is not a 12:40 guy. He's a 12:48 guy. Of course, I also believe he could have run faster in the right race sometime over the past few years. But then it's also disingenuous to call Hocker a 12:57 guy. In peak fitness (like he is now) and in a good paced fresh 5k race, I'd expect he could run 12:45.
Ingebrigtsen is not currently even a 12:48 guy. Based on his 1500m heat, he’s probably at 13:10-20.
The boneheaded 5k/10k specialists will let the pace lag to a 13:10 - 13:15 winning time while an Olympic 1500m champ runs away with it.
I certainly want this to happen. The problem is that we are talking about a former Olympic 1500m champion who failed to advance from the 1500m heats this year.
Does Jakob have the fitness to close a 13:10 race in 1:51 for 800?
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Why all the talk about Kimeli ? There's a reason the odds against him are so bad.
It's not like it's guaranteed a nobody will win.
That too. He had one really big close recently. His PRs are pretty weak compared to a lot of the field. Not saying he's not gonna pull it off, but he wouldn't be my #1 underdog.
Fisher can win a race that goes through 2k @ 13:20 pace (5:20 @2k). But he needs the next k to progress 63, 62, 31 for a 2:36 (7:56 @3k). Then he needs someone to take the lead and grind 1600 in about 3:58 (11:54 @ 4600m). He can then float a 31 and storm the last 200m in 26 to run a 12:51 for the win.
People are underestimating Hocker's endurance here. Dude ran a 7:23, that would be good enough to get him into this 12:40s in a good race. El g going into Athen only had a 12:50 PB (coincidentally, he also has the exact same 3k PR as Hocker). where he got dusted by Shaheen. And then he just destroyed both Bekele and Kipchoge coming off his 1500m win. And with Jakob not being in shape we know there's no Bekele in the field. There's a decent chance Hocker would pull it off there, as long as it isn't faster than 13:00, and he would be the favourite if it's slower than 13:10.
Also, don't sleep on Young, he looked strong in that 10k. He just had poor tactics, as opposed to Fisher who didn't seem to quite have it.
Jakob doesn’t destroy everybody because he’s a 3:26 guy; he destroys them because he’s a 3:26 guy and a 12:40 guy (at least).
Jakob is not a 12:40 guy. He's a 12:48 guy. Of course, I also believe he could have run faster in the right race sometime over the past few years. But then it's also disingenuous to call Hocker a 12:57 guy. In peak fitness (like he is now) and in a good paced fresh 5k race, I'd expect he could run 12:45.
Nothing disingenuous about it. Jakob ran 12:48 over four years ago in a race he dominated. 12:40 is an extremely conservative estimate given his 7:17 from last year. Hocker ran 7:23 shortly before his 12:57, so we saw what he’s capable of in peak fitness. He had the perfect opportunity to run 12:45 in Stockholm and he ran 13:09.
Everyone is overestimating Hocker’s speed compared to others. Fisher and Young are both. 3:50 milers or faster. You could argue Hocker is maybe a 2-3 seconds faster at a mile. At the end of a 5k, we’re talking small differences in speed in a 400m or less sprint.
Everyone is overestimating Hocker’s speed compared to others. Fisher and Young are both. 3:50 milers or faster. You could argue Hocker is maybe a 2-3 seconds faster at a mile. At the end of a 5k, we’re talking small differences in speed in a 400m or less sprint.
Being able to close the last 400m in 51.5 rather than 52.5 is the difference between gold and off the podium. Those 3 seconds faster over 1 mile that Hocker is compared to Fisher is massive. If it comes down to a kick in a slow enough race, Grant is toast.
This thread is great. It’s the nature of a championship race. It’s a chess match. The kickers will try for slow and just how long out do you have to wind it up. If I were Grant and Nico I would wind it up from 2 miles out. But I bet they go at 2 k.
Money is on the Europeans, if close at the bell. Nico if in the pack at 100 to go. I don’t think Hocker will be in the top pack as it’s squeezed down, but if so, his running on hate will kick him in.
Ethiopians may burn it up from the start which would benefit Grant. But honestly I don’t think I have picked a medalist yet.