How many guys have two medals in the Olympics plus two WC golds? Only one EL G. Let’s bot undersell Josh Kerr.
I'm not underselling him at all. I rate him very highly as a competitor and there is a part of me that really does feel for him with what happened in Paris. He ran well enough to win that race and the gold medal would have really changed his outlook - especially adding to the bronze in Tokyo. It was ironically (tragically?) his challenge for the gold that was the catalyst for Jakob making the move that ultimately gave space for Hocker to do his thing and snatch gold away from him. I can't think of many situations at that level of race where an athlete making his or her move to win, triggered an action that allowed another athlete to come through and beat them. Seems all backwards and really unfortunate, which it was.
But the reality is it happened, and barring a miracle in LA (when he will be close to turning 31), he probably won't end up with that Olympic title.
Drifting out a little bit coming down the home stretch is not uncommon. Ingebrigtsen didn’t know Hocker was there, and Hocker deserved the win. The race was lost for Ingebrigtsen and Hocker did not snatch the Gold from him.
It’s early days for Hocker. You’d look at 29 Worlds when he’ll be 28 as the year you’d start worrying about slippage for an upcoming championships due to age/his time on the circuit. If he gets bronze or better this year, he backs up that he’s a perennial contender. If he gets gold, he sets himself up as a clutch performer who transcends his times/circuit results like Mo Farah.
Jakob has a different background and 2018 you could say is more the year to work back from. Judging by his brothers’ career arcs and his own recent injury saga, there can be some concern that by 2027-8 he might not be as an unstoppable force. But we’ll see, as he can learn from their mistakes and he can adjust his program.
The unique thing about Tim is not his performance at this age but that he was a Worlds finalist in 2015. That is some longevity, and the years with sub-3:30s is something unusual too.
The other legacy guy might be Wightman, who at this point will go down as a bit of a one-hit wonder. No doubting that one hit and the fact he was a good athlete before and after, but the performance stands alone in his career. It’s a little like the Joe Flacco SB title let’s say.
I think Wightman just goes down as a national hero rather than someone who's remembered fondly around the world. Kind of like Alan Webb in the US. Having that moment in Eugene will always be special as he was the first to really pierce Jakob's aura. I do wonder if Wightman regrets some of his post Eugene decisions like focussing on the 800 for the rest of the season and then those early year meets in Australia in 2023 with the associated travel. It feels like a missed opportunity to grow his legacy. Still, he'd I think he'd be the most popular medallist if he somehow picked up something in Tokyo, though it would be a massive surprise at this stage.
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.
Agree with your take on Jakob, but there is one caveat: the expectation is lower due to injury and not having raced this outdoor season. It is hard to define what success looks like for him in the 1500m at this years WC. While anything less than a gold might not nail him on as the GOAT, his achievements to date still speak for themself.
Hocker on the other hand, has probably more at stake in terms of his legacy aka. one hit wonder. It's not a question of does he wins gold to achieve the unprecedented OLY/WC double. For me, if he runs anything less than a podium place, then his fairly lousy performances over the past 12 months are not really justified, and he can't claim to be the king of peaking and racing. Just the next guy, ha!
The good news for both Jakob and Hocker is they're still young. Hocker just turned 24 in June, and Jakob turns 25 next week. If they don't medal in the 1500m this year, they could have three more at-bats this decade while still in their 20s (there's a chance Jakob will decide to move up, but after what happened in Paris last year, he might be motivated to stay in the event at least through LA 2028).
Hypothetically, let's say Hocker finishes 4th next week but then pulls a reverse-Centro by getting WC silver in 2027 and bronze in 2029 (remember, Centro didn't medal in 2015, prior to winning gold in 2016). If Hocker did that, he would have a global championship medal of each type, including Olympic gold. That would be a remarkable legacy as a championship performer and one of the American 1500m GOATs. In that scenario, he would have to endure the taunts of "one hit wonder" for a couple years until winning 2027 silver, but those taunts would keep him motivated, and he would end up in a strong position historically at the conclusion of this decade.
TLDR: Jakob and Hocker have a lot to potentially gain from performing well next week, but hope isn't lost if things don't go their way.
Agree with your take on Jakob, but there is one caveat: the expectation is lower due to injury and not having raced this outdoor season. It is hard to define what success looks like for him in the 1500m at this years WC. While anything less than a gold might not nail him on as the GOAT, his achievements to date still speak for themself.
Hocker on the other hand, has probably more at stake in terms of his legacy aka. one hit wonder. It's not a question of does he wins gold to achieve the unprecedented OLY/WC double. For me, if he runs anything less than a podium place, then his fairly lousy performances over the past 12 months are not really justified, and he can't claim to be the king of peaking and racing. Just the next guy, ha!
The good news for both Jakob and Hocker is they're still young. Hocker just turned 24 in June, and Jakob turns 25 next week. If they don't medal in the 1500m this year, they could have three more at-bats this decade while still in their 20s (there's a chance Jakob will decide to move up, but after what happened in Paris last year, he might be motivated to stay in the event at least through LA 2028).
Hypothetically, let's say Hocker finishes 4th next week but then pulls a reverse-Centro by getting WC silver in 2027 and bronze in 2029 (remember, Centro didn't medal in 2015, prior to winning gold in 2016). If Hocker did that, he would have a global championship medal of each type, including Olympic gold. That would be a remarkable legacy as a championship performer and one of the American 1500m GOATs. In that scenario, he would have to endure the taunts of "one hit wonder" for a couple years until winning 2027 silver, but those taunts would keep him motivated, and he would end up in a strong position historically at the conclusion of this decade.
TLDR: Jakob and Hocker have a lot to potentially gain from performing well next week, but hope isn't lost if things don't go their way.
Hocker’s win last year was incredible and any taunts will come from morons. I’m a lot more interested in what happens next week than in 2027.
Hocker’s win last year was incredible and any taunts will come from morons. I’m a lot more interested in what happens next week than in 2027.
The taunts are unfair. Hocker has already proven himself to be championship performer. He's won a championship at every level since high school, and he has repeatedly run his best when it has mattered the most.
I'm very interested in next week too. Just saying we should keep the bigger longer-term picture in mind when considering the potential impact of one WC race on legacies, particularly with athletes who are currently under 25 and have already won Olympic gold. Next week won't be make-or-break for them for their overall careers.
That's why my initial comment in this thread focused more on Tim. He turns 30 this fall (if he's not already there), and with the rise of the younger generation, there's a higher likelihood that next week will be his last good opportunity to make another podium at a global outdoor championship.
Agree with your take on Jakob, but there is one caveat: the expectation is lower due to injury and not having raced this outdoor season. It is hard to define what success looks like for him in the 1500m at this years WC. While anything less than a gold might not nail him on as the GOAT, his achievements to date still speak for themself.
Hocker on the other hand, has probably more at stake in terms of his legacy aka. one hit wonder. It's not a question of does he wins gold to achieve the unprecedented OLY/WC double. For me, if he runs anything less than a podium place, then his fairly lousy performances over the past 12 months are not really justified, and he can't claim to be the king of peaking and racing. Just the next guy, ha!
The good news for both Jakob and Hocker is they're still young. Hocker just turned 24 in June, and Jakob turns 25 next week. If they don't medal in the 1500m this year, they could have three more at-bats this decade while still in their 20s (there's a chance Jakob will decide to move up, but after what happened in Paris last year, he might be motivated to stay in the event at least through LA 2028).
Hypothetically, let's say Hocker finishes 4th next week but then pulls a reverse-Centro by getting WC silver in 2027 and bronze in 2029 (remember, Centro didn't medal in 2015, prior to winning gold in 2016). If Hocker did that, he would have a global championship medal of each type, including Olympic gold. That would be a remarkable legacy as a championship performer and one of the American 1500m GOATs. In that scenario, he would have to endure the taunts of "one hit wonder" for a couple years until winning 2027 silver, but those taunts would keep him motivated, and he would end up in a strong position historically at the conclusion of this decade.
TLDR: Jakob and Hocker have a lot to potentially gain from performing well next week, but hope isn't lost if things don't go their way.
Good take. The only thing that would worry me with Hocker this year is being outside the top 5. Good shot to win, great shot to medal. While a 4th or 5th wouldn’t be a great result, it doesn’t hurt his chances going forward. The more interesting race for Cole in Tokyo is the 5K in my opinion. He’s kind of like Laros to me where I think he could end up anywhere from 15th to the podium because their 5K potential is kind of unproven (especially Laros) and the race could be anywhere from 12:50-13:20. It would be foolish of the field, however (including Jakob), to let it dawdle with guys that could likely close in 51 in a 13:20 or 13:30 race when feeling good