the womens 1500m team is very weak. Muir may sneek in the final
Not enough respect for Muir here- she was overshadowed by Hunter-Bell at the Olympics but remember that she PB'd with 3:53 only last year after a non-ideal build up. Once again she's had a less than ideal build up but within a couple of serious races back she has already finished 4th in Brussels the other day in 3:57 after leaving herself with way too much to do in the final lap. She closed in 61, going from 11th to 4th, and faster than the entire rest of the field minus Hiltz, and she probably would have had a faster last lap than her too if she hadn't got clipped and lost momentum with 300m to go.
I don't predict a podium in Tokyo but given how quickly she is returning to form I predict much better than 'sneaking into the final'.
On the topic of Hunter-Bell, I'm genuinely surprised that she hasn't gone in for the 1500m. Some politics going on with Erin Wallace being a teammate?
That does not seem to be the case. Someone posted article here last week from a UK story about Keely in which coach mentions that Georgia intensely dislikes running the 1500 and that's why she's moving to 800. Sorry I cannot find the link.
Max Burgin has got a tough road to the medals. He's 1-5 against Arop, 1-8 against Wanyonyi and 0-2 against Sedjati, not to mention the Americans. I think he'll be in the final though.
I just don't know about Kerr, his outing at the London Diamond League didn't exactly inspire huge confidence and its hard to judge his GST performances.
If Mills stays on his feet it will be a success. I'm not hopeful.
Tha's a bit unfair on Burgin. This is the first season he's had injury free since he was 16. He's clearly on a different level to previous years and only going to get better and better.
I wont count Monaco because he got clipped badly. So this season he is:
I’m a bit excited about Burgin. He was coming up in the ranks at the same time as Keely and I do think if he wasn’t so injury prone he would have been on the same trajectory.
It’s a bit of a shame the men’s 800m is so hot at the moment. But it looks like he’s healthy and well raced so we will see!
That does not seem to be the case. Someone posted article here last week from a UK story about Keely in which coach mentions that Georgia intensely dislikes running the 1500 and that's why she's moving to 800. Sorry I cannot find the link.
If only we could all be Olympic medalists when running events we intensely dislike....then Id have done steeple LOL (former 4/8 dude)...
Wightman will make the final but I largely agree with the rest. Hannah Nuttall could make the 5k final, she has a good kick in a 14:40 race. I wouldn't entirely rule out a bronze for Burgin, but it would be a slight surprise. And I maintain that Kerr is a realistic shot for gold.
I'm surprised how hot some people are on Mills in this thread. On paper, he's should up there with Hocker as a medal threat in the 5k - how many guys have 12:46 strength and 3:28 speed? But he's just a terrible racer. He does well enough at the Euros but he can brute force a silver there because he's so much fitter than everyone that Jakob. At Worlds, there's so many guys who are better than him in a championship setting. I'm not convinced he'll even finish in the top 8.
I'm just not seeing it with Wightman, but maybe he'll prove me wrong. Defer to you on Nuttall, it's gonna be a tough final to make and heat-dependent (double meaning intended) with all the top women (N'getich, Tsegay, Chebet, Kipyegon, Hailu, Battocletti) running the 5,000 honestly. Kerr assuredly does, I see him anywhere from 1st to 5th.
For Mills, I'm more downgrading the 5,000 field (which is missing many top guys to the 10,000), and thinking he can just hang onto Jakob's or Fisher's coattails when it comes down to it. He'll be completely fresh, which could be a major advantage.
Even allowing for a weakened field, I can't see Mills out-kicking Jakob, Fisher, Young, Hocker, or Mehary and I'm not convinced he can even beat people like Kyle Robinson, Balew, or Mo Ahmed in a 13:10 race. He might have a path to a medal if he can get sit in second or third for the whole race. If he goes out with Jakob at the back and then has to move through the pack, he's likely in trouble. I would like to be proved wrong on this, it's just hard for me to ignore all the mishaps that come Mills' way
I think it will be Keely then Georgia. Jemma Reekie keeps going out too hard then fading massively in the home straight. I hope she proves me wrong though - she had that moment of magic in the London DL a few years back.
I think it will be Keely then Georgia. Jemma Reekie keeps going out too hard then fading massively in the home straight. I hope she proves me wrong though - she had that moment of magic in the London DL a few years back.
That's been Jemma's career, fading in the home straight when it really matters. Go back to the Tokyo 2021 final. With Keely coming round the bend and well clear in 3rd, then fades to fourth being caught on the line.
Last year's Olympic Semi Final, same old story...
This post was edited 13 minutes after it was posted.
Will be interesting to see how Jemma Reekie goes. She was ranked 5th in the world this time last year and ran a huge PB at the London DL 2024, but hasn't broken 1:58.5 this year
I think it will be Keely then Georgia. Jemma Reekie keeps going out too hard then fading massively in the home straight. I hope she proves me wrong though - she had that moment of magic in the London DL a few years back.
That's been Jemma's career, fading in the home straight when it really matters. Go back to the Tokyo 2021 final. With Keely coming round the bend and well clear in 3rd, then fades to fourth being caught on the line.
Last year's Olympic Semi Final, same old story...
Yep it is the same old story with her. I know she was ill a few years ago (was it glandular fever?) and took ages to get back to form after that. But London and that PB seems like a one off.
She always looks like she’s going backwards in the home straight whilst everyone flies past her. I think she needs to work on her form too as it looks inefficient with an exaggerated arm swing.
That's been Jemma's career, fading in the home straight when it really matters. Go back to the Tokyo 2021 final. With Keely coming round the bend and well clear in 3rd, then fades to fourth being caught on the line.
Last year's Olympic Semi Final, same old story...
Yep it is the same old story with her. I know she was ill a few years ago (was it glandular fever?) and took ages to get back to form after that. But London and that PB seems like a one off.
She always looks like she’s going backwards in the home straight whilst everyone flies past her. I think she needs to work on her form too as it looks inefficient with an exaggerated arm swing.
The way she runs is madness in that she does the same thing every time and expects a different result. I don't blame her for running for gold in Tokyo in 2021, it's an Olympics and she gave it everything. But now, she's going out like a steam train every bloody race and she just doesn't have the talent to hold that for the second lap. Maybe perversely, Keely coming back could help her as it simplifies her race. She knows she doesn't have Keely's strength or fitness I the gold is off the table. If she accepts that, doesn't fight for the lead, she could end up with a medal. It's very much an outside chance, but she's good enough to be in the mix for bronze.
I think it will be Keely then Georgia. Jemma Reekie keeps going out too hard then fading massively in the home straight. I hope she proves me wrong though - she had that moment of magic in the London DL a few years back.
That's been Jemma's career, fading in the home straight when it really matters. Go back to the Tokyo 2021 final. With Keely coming round the bend and well clear in 3rd, then fades to fourth being caught on the line.
Last year's Olympic Semi Final, same old story...
This is pretty harsh. It's not as if coming fourth in the Olympics isn't an excellent achievement. She simply doesn't have Keely/Mu level talent. Her 1:56.9 in the final was her season's best.
That said for somebody who is an 8/15 athlete not a 4/8 athlete you would be hoping the final 100 was her stronger point.
The way she runs is madness in that she does the same thing every time and expects a different result. I don't blame her for running for gold in Tokyo in 2021, it's an Olympics and she gave it everything. But now, she's going out like a steam train every bloody race and she just doesn't have the talent to hold that for the second lap. Maybe perversely, Keely coming back could help her as it simplifies her race. She knows she doesn't have Keely's strength or fitness I the gold is off the table. If she accepts that, doesn't fight for the lead, she could end up with a medal. It's very much an outside chance, but she's good enough to be in the mix for bronze.
I can only assume it's because she knows she has more strength than speed (she's definitely more 800/1500 than 400/800) so she doesn't want to rely on a kick. Unfortunately she just can't seem to make it beyond 700m. Looking at the splits for London and Eugene, she's pretty much the same or ahead of the winner's splits until 700m and then she loses a second or more over the last 100m. And this is her slowing down- those ahead are just holding the pace to the end when you view the splits. It feels like it should be a relatively easy fix given that she's right there and not having to speed up; it's not like she's fallen off the pace with a full lap to go, she just needs to maintain for an extra 100m. But obviously much easier said than done.
That's been Jemma's career, fading in the home straight when it really matters. Go back to the Tokyo 2021 final. With Keely coming round the bend and well clear in 3rd, then fades to fourth being caught on the line.
Last year's Olympic Semi Final, same old story...
This is pretty harsh. It's not as if coming fourth in the Olympics isn't an excellent achievement. She simply doesn't have Keely/Mu level talent. Her 1:56.9 in the final was her season's best.
That said for somebody who is an 8/15 athlete not a 4/8 athlete you would be hoping the final 100 was her stronger point.
It wasn't meant to be harsh but I see where you are coming from. I just kind of mean this happens over and over again, why can a talented athlete (if not Keely/ Mu level) not fix the issue?
This is pretty harsh. It's not as if coming fourth in the Olympics isn't an excellent achievement. She simply doesn't have Keely/Mu level talent. Her 1:56.9 in the final was her season's best.
That said for somebody who is an 8/15 athlete not a 4/8 athlete you would be hoping the final 100 was her stronger point.
It wasn't meant to be harsh but I see where you are coming from. I just kind of mean this happens over and over again, why can a talented athlete (if not Keely/ Mu level) not fix the issue?
Reekie is a runner I consistently root for as she has had near misses at the podium (4th 2021 Oly, 5th 2023 words) and consistently shows up on the Diamond league circuit. She has the talent to medal (1:55 PB last year) but hasn’t gotten it right on the big day. What’s puzzling to me is she’s only run 1:58.66 or slower this year, yet consistently tries to lead. If you go back and watch most of her best races, more often than not they have Keely in them and she doesn’t force the pace (2024 London, 2024 Prefontaine, 2023 world final). Also, she ran 2:31 in the 1000 this year which was quietly underrated, and somehow in that race she could go through in 1:58 high and hold up decent enough but couldn’t do it in just a regular 800. Pulled out of a recent DL and not in the final, wonder if she’s healthy
It wasn't meant to be harsh but I see where you are coming from. I just kind of mean this happens over and over again, why can a talented athlete (if not Keely/ Mu level) not fix the issue?
Reekie is a runner I consistently root for as she has had near misses at the podium (4th 2021 Oly, 5th 2023 words) and consistently shows up on the Diamond league circuit. She has the talent to medal (1:55 PB last year) but hasn’t gotten it right on the big day. What’s puzzling to me is she’s only run 1:58.66 or slower this year, yet consistently tries to lead. If you go back and watch most of her best races, more often than not they have Keely in them and she doesn’t force the pace (2024 London, 2024 Prefontaine, 2023 world final). Also, she ran 2:31 in the 1000 this year which was quietly underrated, and somehow in that race she could go through in 1:58 high and hold up decent enough but couldn’t do it in just a regular 800. Pulled out of a recent DL and not in the final, wonder if she’s healthy
She does run better in races with Keely. That might be why she’s not having a great year. Wondering if the 1k is more her distance (which is a little-raced distance!). She’s a strong 1500m runner but not good enough to be competitive in that at the moment.
It is frustrating to see her employ the same tactics over and over again with the same results. You think her coaching team would at least try a different strategy. Though without a strong kick it’s always going to be difficult.
The way she runs is madness in that she does the same thing every time and expects a different result. I don't blame her for running for gold in Tokyo in 2021, it's an Olympics and she gave it everything. But now, she's going out like a steam train every bloody race and she just doesn't have the talent to hold that for the second lap. Maybe perversely, Keely coming back could help her as it simplifies her race. She knows she doesn't have Keely's strength or fitness I the gold is off the table. If she accepts that, doesn't fight for the lead, she could end up with a medal. It's very much an outside chance, but she's good enough to be in the mix for bronze.
She runs basically the exact opposite of GHB, it's pretty funny. GHB might get into trouble being too patient in a big spot, we'll see. The trouble for Reekie will be even getting to the Final. It's interesting that her and Muir came up together. Muir used to run too aggressively/recklessly too, but learned to dial it back. Feels like Reekie never has, even as she has improved her form somewhat.
I'm just not seeing it with Wightman, but maybe he'll prove me wrong. Defer to you on Nuttall, it's gonna be a tough final to make and heat-dependent (double meaning intended) with all the top women (N'getich, Tsegay, Chebet, Kipyegon, Hailu, Battocletti) running the 5,000 honestly. Kerr assuredly does, I see him anywhere from 1st to 5th.
For Mills, I'm more downgrading the 5,000 field (which is missing many top guys to the 10,000), and thinking he can just hang onto Jakob's or Fisher's coattails when it comes down to it. He'll be completely fresh, which could be a major advantage.
Even allowing for a weakened field, I can't see Mills out-kicking Jakob, Fisher, Young, Hocker, or Mehary and I'm not convinced he can even beat people like Kyle Robinson, Balew, or Mo Ahmed in a 13:10 race. He might have a path to a medal if he can get sit in second or third for the whole race. If he goes out with Jakob at the back and then has to move through the pack, he's likely in trouble. I would like to be proved wrong on this, it's just hard for me to ignore all the mishaps that come Mills' way
And we see again tonight why I have no faith in Mills. Why is he taking the lead late on in a race like that 3000 in Zurich? He goes to the front and just paces everyone. If he has no faith in his kick, then he needs to make a harder move earlier. It's like he's trying to run like Mo Farah but without the ability to find a 53 second final lap. A 3:28/12:46 guy should not be finishing 7th in a 7:36 race. His tactics are shambolic.
Mills apart, Burgin's medal chances went up a lot in my view, and Hunter-Bell showed that she can get closer to Keely than I thought she could. But she'll need to avoid getting boxed yet again - she'd have been closer to 1:55-flat if she didn't run into the back of Wiley. I still don't trust Werro to reproduce this food form in Tokyo but she's definitely a threat now