My guess is he finishes quicker than Nuguse did here, but I think you are correct.
But the scenario is wrong. The real question is what happens when he goes out in 57, 55.5, 55.5 and comes through 1200 in 2:48? Does he have enough cushion to hold off the guys closing in 39-mid?
If anything, the 12.5 second last 100s of these guys make me start to think Jakob is going to front run again. It seems dumb to try something that has failed 3 times in a row, but what else can he do?
I agree, front running is reliable when done correctly
52 last lap in a 3:30 race. Jakob would never be capable of that. We're living in the era of the two-Koechs. Jakob is the past.
Why wouldn’t he be capable of running a 52 last lap in a 3:30 race? He closed a 3:26 in 54. Seems absurd. How are you so sure of that?
Jakob is the past yet has beaten multiple times the only guy who has beaten Koech this season on the diamond league. Jakob is the present, and is a constant.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Injuries can take a toll.
Hocker and Nuguse are extremely inconsistent. Kerr as well. The guy with the best results overall is Jakob and probably will be for the next few years.
Well yes and no.
I struggle with saying he's the best in the world right now given he hasn't raced in almost 5 months, but over the last 3-4 seasons he has been the best in the world at running the 1500m in terms of a really important facet in measuring ones ability in the event - the time to run it. Now in another facet he's struggled by his standards and we all know what that is by now.
I do think yesterdays result does show how hard and fickle the sport can be - and ultimately how razor thin the margins are.
Exactly one year ago yesterday, Yared Nuguse ran 3.36.56 in the first round of the 2024 Olympic Games and 4 days later he was an Olympic medalist and sub 3.28 guy that had finally made the "leap". He won Zurich a few weeks later and it appeared like he had kind of completed the puzzle of being able to run times (sub 3.44 mile) and also win medals. He starts the season running an indoor world mile record and a lot of pundits are wondering that given we haven't seen a (clean) repeat global gold medalist for almost 20 years, would he be the guy to get it done in 2025. As we sit here today he is now going to have to embark on an epic gauntlet of DL races just to qualify for the final and then he's going to have to win it just to repeat his 2024 exploits of just toeing the line in the first round of a major championships.
But here is an honest question - replace Yared yesterday with Jakob. Hot and sunny afternoon, little bit of breeze around. He takes the field out in 56.23, 1.54.6 and 2.50.5 at 1200 - which given it's a national final and not a world final is quite plausible. Can he also match/better the sub 39.6 finishes of Koech, Strand and Hocker? And it's not even that - it's the sub 13 finishes of all of those guys (like way under 13) - because I don't know if I could unequivocally say he could.
Budapest 2023 WC Finals:
56.13, 1:54.23, 2:49.53.
Jakob closed in 40.12 (penultimate 100 of 12.89, when he was fending off Kerr on the bend, then he gassed out/faded to 13.91), but was sick. Also, he's a stronger athlete in 2025, at least pre-injury. We'll see how he does in August.
Kerr closed in 39.8, his last 100 was 13.62.
Nordas closed the fastest, in 39.39 (last 100 in 12.85). Jakob narrowly fended him off (though he might have responded better had he saw him coming - he slowed down significantly in the last 10-20).
I think that off this US25 pace, Jakob might be able to stretch it out over the last 600 better than Nuguse, accelerating every 100. Nuguse sort of did that, but not very convincingly. He closed in 40.81, off a slower pace. That's the difference between a 3:31 a 3:29. So we know a sick Jakob would still perform better than Nuguse did, most likely. Does he fend off the Kerr/Hocker/Strand/Laros/Koeches of the world? Who knows. It's so stacked.
I do think Jakob wishes that Yared was in the race, he's the one most likely to take it hot if Jakob doesn't take it.
But today, Yared went out with Jakob's strategy that he executed in the last 3 major championship races, and had similar results.
If anything, I think it underscores that the field is so deep, simply outpacing everyone isn't going to cut it. Jakob was no more successful than Yared was today.
As a fan though, it really is a great era of the 1500 to be here for.
Everyone yaps about the front running. The problem for Jakob and Nuguse is they get to a 9 man final, and realize they will get outkicked by 6 of the 9 runners.
Their only choice to win is to make sure race is hard to shake or neutralize the kickers.
If no one else takes the lead, they really have no choice.
Nuguse actually just didn't make race fast enough.
Either bad choice, or just a slightly off performance.
Margins to win are small, but I don't see a winning strategic alternative for these guys.
Everyone yaps about the front running. The problem for Jakob and Nuguse is they get to a 9 man final, and realize they will get outkicked by 6 of the 9 runners.
One day I will take a statistical look at positions during a 1500 and determine the best position to be in for the average runner.
but I'm already sure of one thing: people seem to have biased expectations about someone leading a pack of 12. All else being equal, they have about an 8% chance of hanging on; if any of the other 11 runners is much faster or has more left, they will be passed. Positioning raises that slightly, but there's no reason to expect the front runner to hold out much more often than that. Jakob played the position advantage perfectly in 2021, he wasn't that much better than Tim.
Everyone yaps about the front running. The problem for Jakob and Nuguse is they get to a 9 man final, and realize they will get outkicked by 6 of the 9 runners.
One day I will take a statistical look at positions during a 1500 and determine the best position to be in for the average runner.
but I'm already sure of one thing: people seem to have biased expectations about someone leading a pack of 12. All else being equal, they have about an 8% chance of hanging on; if any of the other 11 runners is much faster or has more left, they will be passed. Positioning raises that slightly, but there's no reason to expect the front runner to hold out much more often than that. Jakob played the position advantage perfectly in 2021, he wasn't that much better than Tim.
I wondered if anyone would bring up 2021. It's funny you should mention statistics. Statistically, he *was* that much better than Tim, because the margin of victory was .69, significantly the highest in the last 4 global finals (.69, .24, .27, .14).
I just rewatched the race last night, and the it was over about 80 meters from the finish, when Jakob pulled away. That certainly wasn't the case in 2022 or 2023, when Jakob was right on Weightman/Kerr challenging them up until maybe 20 to go. Hocker certainly wasn't much better than Kerr or Nuguse. People always say Tim paced Jakob to victory in 2021. While that's partially true, Jakob actually went to the front early and led the race to 400 with an honest 56.2. After about 425m, Tim surged passed him and started hammering 55s trying to break the field, and Jakob was the only strong enough runner to go with it. Tim led for less than 1000m. Sure that helepd Jakob, but was he supposed to challenge Tim and try to surge past him and run a 54? No. But that doesn't mean he wouldn't have won it from the front.
Why wouldn’t he be capable of running a 52 last lap in a 3:30 race? He closed a 3:26 in 54. Seems absurd. How are you so sure of that?
Jakob is the past yet has beaten multiple times the only guy who has beaten Koech this season on the diamond league. Jakob is the present, and is a constant.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Injuries can take a toll.
Sorry to be pedantic but past performance can be indicative when it reflects form. But it isn't determinative, since injuries - as you say - including those of competitors, will change the territory.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Why wouldn’t he be capable of running a 52 last lap in a 3:30 race? He closed a 3:26 in 54. Seems absurd. How are you so sure of that?
Jakob is the past yet has beaten multiple times the only guy who has beaten Koech this season on the diamond league. Jakob is the present, and is a constant.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Injuries can take a toll.
Jakob is the most consistent 1500m runner of this decade.
Also, Hocker has never won a Diamond League race. Kerr has never won a Diamond League race in the 1500m (He has one victory in a DL mile race (Eugene 2024))