Josh Hoey 1K WR attempt!

Woooops wrote:

no___deal wrote:

One of the most common mistakes people make is talk about PBs. When calculating potential to run a certain distance we need to consider SBs instead. Logically, you need to be able to have a certain 800m and 1500m capability within the same season and not with years in between. Therefore Coe's 3:29.77 in 1986 had no impact on his ability to run the 1k WR in 1981. In 1981 he ran a SB of 3:31.95, just 4 days before setting the 1k WR.

So when comparing Hoey's SBs to the SBs of Ngeny, Coe, Cram and Makhloufi, I came to a conclusion that Hoey is very well indeed in shape to take a legit attempt at the 1k WR. His results this year already show significantly more potential than Makhloufi had in 2015 and slightly more than Coe in 1981 or Cram in 1985.

On the side note, I did some calculations and can say that Ngeny had to be at least in 1:42.95 shape in 1999, when he ran the 1k WR.

Of course your first point is correct and obvious to me, but I will add that it might even be a mistake to use seasonal bests instead of seasonal capacities, which admittedly are quite speculative, but as you note, Ngeny was capable of more than what he showed at 800m. So we often use personal bests because that is what we have access to, and yes, this is going to be somewhat inaccurate at times due to one not having personal best capacity at all distances simultaneously. That is partially why some choose to look at results and. It speculate too much.

no___deal wrote:

A Fan With No Name wrote:

Your point about seasonal bests (and more relevantly as a later post mentioned, seasonal capabilities) is a good one. Note that Coe's SB of 3:31.95 in 1981 is likely substantially worse than his seasonal capability that year. For one, he ran a 3:47.33 mile in 1981.

And his 3:31.95 1500 race was marred by horrendous pacemaking when the rabbit went out insanely fast, so that (1) he got no drafting benefit, and (2) his first two laps of 1:49.1 are still probably the fastest first 800 of any 1500/mile record attempt in history. With a more measured first part of the race, he was likely capable of a time about two seconds faster that night.

Yes and no, I think. Coe's 3:47.33 mile is certainly a better result than 3:31.95. But it was run in late August (7 weeks later) and he very likely was not in a 1:41.73 shape by then anymore.

This is all a theory and speculation of course. But the SBs do give us approximate indicators.

Either way, Hoey's 1:42.43 800m (1253p) and 3:29.75 1500m (1248p) performances within 10(!) days definitely speak for amazing 1k WR potential (1250p).

Put Hoey, Masalela, Wanyonyi, Attaoui and Jonah Koech in a perfectly paced 1k race in let's say Paris and we will see a WR.

automorphic wrote:

One of my favorite facts about middle distance records is that they're all about 17-19 seconds under 60-second pace:

100m: 5.42
200m: 10.81
400m: 16.97
800m: 19.09
1000m: 18.04
1500m: 19.00
Mile: 18.27
2000m: 16.87
3000m: 12.45
2 Miles: 8.70

In an ideal world where every record is equally strong, you should see a smooth curve, going up for a while, peaking, and going back down. Aside from small exceptions for factors like the start in sprinting and curve vs. straightaway, this phenomenon is as close to a "law of nature" as you're going to get in our sport.

(In fact, there's nothing special about 60-second pace. Pick your favorite reference pace, and plot world records or your PB paces relative to this pace, and you should see a similar curve).

What we see actually approximates the ideal very, very well! At the short end, the distances are too short to really gain much on 60-second pace, while at the long end, fatigue pulls the pace back. The peak is clearly in the middle, probably somewhere between 800m and 1500m. In fact, judging by the rest of the events, 1000m seems to be just about at the peak of the curve!

This is very suggestive that the 1000m record is probably a bit weaker than most of the others, and that an equally strong record would be around 2:10.7. That estimate certainly isn't definitive, but I do think there's a fair amount of room to drop if someone like Wanyonyi gave it a really good go.

ObserverofTrends wrote:

I didnt mention Ngeny because I suspect massive EPO use. He totally lacked Coes exceptional leg speed of 45-point for 400 relay legs and never ran a seriously world-class 800.... unlike previous 1k WR holders (Wohlly, Snell etc). More of a 15/miler given wings by PED.

And considering the debate over how much supershoes wavelights bicarb etc have lifted 800/1500 times in the past five years just how fast would peak Coe be today? 2:09?

That 1k WR run was mindblowing. I saw it live in 1981. Young grasshoppers have no concept of just how far ahead Coe was of the rest of the world. We see nothing like that today except Mondo and its easier to dominate a technical field event than a track race

As for the 8/15 SB predictor argument thats a good one but Coes "3:31.95" was the infamous Stockholm race in which he - not Andy Norman funded pace-destroyer Robinson - opened with 52.4. Nothing wrong with his 1:49.1 800 but in a 15 it cant be split like that for optimal finish. So, 3:28 more like or if we were vento^ then ~3.23...

Anyway that 2:12 is the legitimate WR.

Even 2015 Makhdaddy couldnt approach it the same week he produced that ridiculous workout vid that begins with a 1:44 800. Ive alwats believed that had no training value and was purely intended to intimidate his opposition but regardless he was in exceptional shape.

I do think Hoey has a chance. Before Ostrava Id say no way Jose but now its time to get it set up with Arop Wanyonyi etc. and give him - and them - a chance.

ObserverofTrends wrote:

I didnt mention Ngeny because I suspect massive EPO use. He totally lacked Coes exceptional leg speed of 45-point for 400 relay legs and never ran a seriously world-class 800.... unlike previous 1k WR holders (Wohlly, Snell etc). More of a 15/miler given wings by PED.

And considering the debate over how much supershoes wavelights bicarb etc have lifted 800/1500 times in the past five years just how fast would peak Coe be today? 2:09?

That 1k WR run was mindblowing. I saw it live in 1981. Young grasshoppers have no concept of just how far ahead Coe was of the rest of the world. We see nothing like that today except Mondo and its easier to dominate a technical field event than a track race

As for the 8/15 SB predictor argument thats a good one but Coes "3:31.95" was the infamous Stockholm race in which he - not Andy Norman funded pace-destroyer Robinson - opened with 52.4. Nothing wrong with his 1:49.1 800 but in a 15 it cant be split like that for optimal finish. So, 3:28 more like or if we were vento^ then ~3.23...

Anyway that 2:12 is the legitimate WR.

Even 2015 Makhdaddy couldnt approach it the same week he produced that ridiculous workout vid that begins with a 1:44 800. Ive alwats believed that had no training value and was purely intended to intimidate his opposition but regardless he was in exceptional shape.

I do think Hoey has a chance. Before Ostrava Id say no way Jose but now its time to get it set up with Arop Wanyonyi etc. and give him - and them - a chance.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

ObserverofTrends wrote:

I didnt mention Ngeny because I suspect massive EPO use. He totally lacked Coes exceptional leg speed of 45-point for 400 relay legs and never ran a seriously world-class 800.... unlike previous 1k WR holders (Wohlly, Snell etc). More of a 15/miler given wings by PED.

And considering the debate over how much supershoes wavelights bicarb etc have lifted 800/1500 times in the past five years just how fast would peak Coe be today? 2:09?

That 1k WR run was mindblowing. I saw it live in 1981. Young grasshoppers have no concept of just how far ahead Coe was of the rest of the world. We see nothing like that today except Mondo and its easier to dominate a technical field event than a track race

As for the 8/15 SB predictor argument thats a good one but Coes "3:31.95" was the infamous Stockholm race in which he - not Andy Norman funded pace-destroyer Robinson - opened with 52.4. Nothing wrong with his 1:49.1 800 but in a 15 it cant be split like that for optimal finish. So, 3:28 more like or if we were vento^ then ~3.23...

Anyway that 2:12 is the legitimate WR.

Even 2015 Makhdaddy couldnt approach it the same week he produced that ridiculous workout vid that begins with a 1:44 800. Ive alwats believed that had no training value and was purely intended to intimidate his opposition but regardless he was in exceptional shape.

I do think Hoey has a chance. Before Ostrava Id say no way Jose but now its time to get it set up with Arop Wanyonyi etc. and give him - and them - a chance.

My post didnt publish but Ngeny’s 800m PB deserves some context. In 1999, he chased the 1000m record twice with no 800s in the summer. In 2000 he only ran it twice pretty early on before the Olympics and did win the Bislett Games 800. He ran 1:44 in another race that year. After his 2001 car crash he was not the same guy ever again, so we’re looking at a guy who didn’t chase many 800m marks. Its never really made sense in 1999 he’s be so good at the 1000/1500 as a 1:44 guy. Most likely he was in 1:43-low shape minimum but simply opted for the two 1000s and several sub-3:30 circuit wins instead and the legendary mile WR where he drafted off El Guerrouj.