DONNY MF BRAZIER: In case you weren't convinced. He's officially, officially back. 1:43.81 negative split

Mike Smith informally

That move he made on the backstretch was exactly like his 2019 Worlds win. Classic.

I’m in awe. Considering his absence and not having any knowledge of him conditioning after two years. I thought he was returning to join us hobbyjoggers.

Very impressive - within half a second of the time Juantorena ran in 1976 in his first season at the event...

I'll be honest, I'd written him off completely. This comeback is unreal.

I have a pocket theory: the negative splitting we're seeing by many pros and high schoolers is a sign of bicarb use. Not a scientific theory, just a guess. Have the event tactics changed permanently now?

Nothing suspicious here. Move along. Go attack Hoey.

lolololololol

Driven by pure hate (and special supplements) after seeing Hoppel topple his AR. lolololol

Hope he stays healthy. If he does look out...

He is the 5th fastest in the USA right now after this race. Hoey (1:42.43), Hoppel (1:43.26), Koech (1:43.32), and Miller (1:43.52) have run faster this year. Plus you have Sam Whitmarsh who just won NCAAs, who I think has tons of potential.

I would pick him for a spot on the team after this performance based on his experience and pedigree, but he isn't the favorite. Probably keep Hoppel up there although he ran a poor race this weekend.

Honestly just really inspiring. Huge fan of Brazier, seems like such a chill guy too.

Oh my goodness what a nutty last 300

Another option is at the meet website:

tracklnd.com

Tracklnd

The Heart of Racing

Open link

Scroll down and select Sunday, then go to 5:46:00 in the video.

I completely respect your reasons for making Hoppel the favorite based on the last few years -- he's so consistent and a clutch performer, not to mention he has the AR from 4th in the Olympic final -- but my recency bias tells me Hoey is unbeaten by Americans this year and setting PRs regularly, and Brazier has an amazing trend line off of two races, dropping a second a week, small sample size, but wow! My picks are Hoey (stronger for three rounds than Brazier?), Brazier, and Koech.

Thanks for posting these

Anyone doubting brazier clearly hasn’t watched the race.

this is a world champion, looking ridiculously strong making a big move in a pretty quick win.

he may still have a gap to close on the world’s best, but talent doesn’t leave. he is 100% a threat. The top Americans better take notice if he makes a move at USA’s. and if he’s able to hit the 1:42s by July; the top guys in the world better too.

I had not thought about how rounds will affect Brazier. It seems likely that the lack of a strong base might hurt him especially with the increased depth (but I don't really know what the number 8-16 runners are like). Can some of those better informed chime in?

On the Citius podcast, he made it seem like he hasnt done a ton of real 800 workouts. Mike has him doing very basic strength stuff to see how his body handles it and to get back into shape.
Of his training has been mild this spring, he could still gain a lot of fitness in 6weeks

"If I’m not feeling great, I just don’t run." Reminds me of Henry Rono. With age comes wisdom (sometimes).

There’s all kinds of reasons why the 800m is a positive split race.

Physiologically, it’s a lot like the 400m. The faster you get, the more anaerobic aka closer it gets too. The 60/40 aerobic to anaerobic figure came from study patients who were running nowhere near a world class time, not even national class 5000m pace. The 400m certainly isn’t run best on even or negative splits, and anecdotally you will see an 800m feels much more like a 400m than even a 1500m if you were to race all 3.

As far as race strategy goes, you only get one move in the 800m, because you are running at a sub maximal sprint and will need to speed up to a maximal sprint to get around people, which is very energy demanding. In the mile/1500 and above, running the race wire to wire usually doesn’t benefit you, this is why Jakob loses a lot in championships despite being the fastest miler in the world right now. In the 800m, because it’s so hard to pass people, you are benefited by keeping yourself out of traffic and not giving anyone the opportunity to pass you until they are hopefully too tired to pass you. This means getting out as fast as you can without having a complete meltdown over the final 200m.

He didn’t look any kind of tired after his 1:44, and I think a 1:44 will get you into the US final. Worlds will be a different issue but I think he will be just fine at USAs. I’m willing to bet he’s done cross training and other forms of conditioning over the span of his injury too, as 1:43 simply isn’t happening in 4 months of training from cold turkey

Rounds could be an issue, no doubt about it. The US is strong up top, but it does fall off.

You have:

sub-144 guys: Hoppel, Hoey, Koech, Miller, Brazier
Solidly sub-145 guys seemingly: Whitmarsh, Cohen, Alvarado
Past It? : Harris, Kidder, Jewett
College Dark Horse: Christian Jackson, Matsatsa, McCarthy
Can't Rule It Out But Major ? Marks: Sumner, Wes Ferguson

I'd say that first 8 is pretty solid, but I'd be a little wary of anyone else out of that group.