I’m in awe. Considering his absence and not having any knowledge of him conditioning after two years. I thought he was returning to join us hobbyjoggers.
I'll be honest, I'd written him off completely. This comeback is unreal.
I have a pocket theory: the negative splitting we're seeing by many pros and high schoolers is a sign of bicarb use. Not a scientific theory, just a guess. Have the event tactics changed permanently now?
He is the 5th fastest in the USA right now after this race. Hoey (1:42.43), Hoppel (1:43.26), Koech (1:43.32), and Miller (1:43.52) have run faster this year. Plus you have Sam Whitmarsh who just won NCAAs, who I think has tons of potential.
I would pick him for a spot on the team after this performance based on his experience and pedigree, but he isn't the favorite. Probably keep Hoppel up there although he ran a poor race this weekend.
He is the 5th fastest in the USA right now after this race. Hoey (1:42.43), Hoppel (1:43.26), Koech (1:43.32), and Miller (1:43.52) have run faster this year. Plus you have Sam Whitmarsh who just won NCAAs, who I think has tons of potential.
I would pick him for a spot on the team after this performance based on his experience and pedigree, but he isn't the favorite. Probably keep Hoppel up there although he ran a poor race this weekend.
I completely respect your reasons for making Hoppel the favorite based on the last few years -- he's so consistent and a clutch performer, not to mention he has the AR from 4th in the Olympic final -- but my recency bias tells me Hoey is unbeaten by Americans this year and setting PRs regularly, and Brazier has an amazing trend line off of two races, dropping a second a week, small sample size, but wow! My picks are Hoey (stronger for three rounds than Brazier?), Brazier, and Koech.
Anyone doubting brazier clearly hasn’t watched the race.
this is a world champion, looking ridiculously strong making a big move in a pretty quick win.
he may still have a gap to close on the world’s best, but talent doesn’t leave. he is 100% a threat. The top Americans better take notice if he makes a move at USA’s. and if he’s able to hit the 1:42s by July; the top guys in the world better too.
I had not thought about how rounds will affect Brazier. It seems likely that the lack of a strong base might hurt him especially with the increased depth (but I don't really know what the number 8-16 runners are like). Can some of those better informed chime in?
On the Citius podcast, he made it seem like he hasnt done a ton of real 800 workouts. Mike has him doing very basic strength stuff to see how his body handles it and to get back into shape. Of his training has been mild this spring, he could still gain a lot of fitness in 6weeks
i would like to learn about his training during the latest injury periods
who did the surgery?
and speaking of the 800 and the prior conventional wisdom to split 2 seconds plus for the first 400m? i never understood that beyond bro science explanations, and especially the fact that it was almost done at the elite level for best time. which kind of made it a fact... which apparently it is not.
it is looking like even splits is the best for time, back in the day there was a precedent, but rare.
like the ovett russian love child ran, and wottle ran in 72, in a race that i can watch again and again, and get excited every time ,also symonds ran his 142 this way as well. rudisha ran 52 and 50 in africa at his peak ...
my favorite athlete secretariat ran belmont, they say in an all time one off, all time record, running each quarter faster than the previous one, for a record, i think stands today, in a win 31 lengths ahead. and this implies that the horse could have run faster ... as he was still accelerating.
actually in horse racing, given they have like a million data points, negative splits for best time , the odds are almost zero... which makes it "face".
things get interesting when a solid theory has holes blown in it.
There’s all kinds of reasons why the 800m is a positive split race.
Physiologically, it’s a lot like the 400m. The faster you get, the more anaerobic aka closer it gets too. The 60/40 aerobic to anaerobic figure came from study patients who were running nowhere near a world class time, not even national class 5000m pace. The 400m certainly isn’t run best on even or negative splits, and anecdotally you will see an 800m feels much more like a 400m than even a 1500m if you were to race all 3.
As far as race strategy goes, you only get one move in the 800m, because you are running at a sub maximal sprint and will need to speed up to a maximal sprint to get around people, which is very energy demanding. In the mile/1500 and above, running the race wire to wire usually doesn’t benefit you, this is why Jakob loses a lot in championships despite being the fastest miler in the world right now. In the 800m, because it’s so hard to pass people, you are benefited by keeping yourself out of traffic and not giving anyone the opportunity to pass you until they are hopefully too tired to pass you. This means getting out as fast as you can without having a complete meltdown over the final 200m.
I had not thought about how rounds will affect Brazier. It seems likely that the lack of a strong base might hurt him especially with the increased depth (but I don't really know what the number 8-16 runners are like). Can some of those better informed chime in?
He didn’t look any kind of tired after his 1:44, and I think a 1:44 will get you into the US final. Worlds will be a different issue but I think he will be just fine at USAs. I’m willing to bet he’s done cross training and other forms of conditioning over the span of his injury too, as 1:43 simply isn’t happening in 4 months of training from cold turkey
I had not thought about how rounds will affect Brazier. It seems likely that the lack of a strong base might hurt him especially with the increased depth (but I don't really know what the number 8-16 runners are like). Can some of those better informed chime in?
Rounds could be an issue, no doubt about it. The US is strong up top, but it does fall off.
You have:
sub-144 guys: Hoppel, Hoey, Koech, Miller, Brazier Solidly sub-145 guys seemingly: Whitmarsh, Cohen, Alvarado Past It? : Harris, Kidder, Jewett College Dark Horse: Christian Jackson, Matsatsa, McCarthy Can't Rule It Out But Major ? Marks: Sumner, Wes Ferguson
I'd say that first 8 is pretty solid, but I'd be a little wary of anyone else out of that group.