2028 Olympic Marathon Trials Standards are Here: 2:16:00 for Men, 2:37:00 for Women

wejo wrote:

The last 2 Trials everyone got their travel comped I believe which was very expensive.

The press release says they are returning to "A" And "B" standard to "to prioritize full fields" but I don't think that is the case at all. It's done to save money.

When I quit my job to train for the 2000 Trials the "B" standard was 2:22 and the "A" standard 2:20. With supershoes I can see the argument for taking it down to 2:16, but if you're not paying travel for these guys I could easily see it staying at 2:18. But the world record has dropped about 6 minutes in that time period so 2:16 seems ok to me.

I consider the Olympic Marathon Trials to be the lifeblood of the sport in the US and want the mark to be aspirational but achievable for a decent amount of people, while also not totally distances from the realities that this is an Olympic selection event. Are we still in that ballpark? I think so.

HobbleCreek24 wrote:

Airsjordan wrote:

Again, I think the core of your argument is that the trial format (as it stands) doesn’t accomplish its goal very well. I would maybe agree with you.

But a 2:16 standard doesn’t really make it better, does it? Does a 2:15:59 guy have a shot at top three? If the answer is no, then 2:16 is just as pointless as 2:18.

What I am saying is that the entire event already exists to encourage people on the brink to keep going. It builds a healthy population of sub elite runners, which is good for USA distance running. Maybe one of those guys does develop and make things interesting the next cycle. Or maybe they quit because the gap between qualifying for Boston and an OTQ is an enormous empty void.

Maybe that enormous gap is really where my qualm lies. If there were something to fill it, I think the entire sport would benefit.

Or maybe I’m a salty 2:20 guy who sees the window closing in front of him. Either way, I can tell you there are many who feel the same way I do. I don’t see this decision helping to grow the sport from the middle out, which is what I think is the way to do it. Anyway

I think it has to be a balance between encouraging participation and just a qualifier for the Olympics. I don't mind the fact that extra runners are allowed, in fact I think it's part of the charm, because the marathon is inherently a large community event.

But as the standard of American marathoning improves, the qualifying times should also improve. The best American marathoners are faster than they were 4 years ago, and honestly they're probably more than 2 minutes faster.

The fastest time in the post-Olympic window that I could find was Scott Fauble's 2:08:52, and most marathoners were much slower than that, in the low 2:09s on a good day, or even the 2:10s, 2:11s. And that actually played out all the way to Olympic Qualifying time. People will famously remember that the US struggled all cycle to get men to meet the Olympic standard and only 2 men eventually got the Olympic standard of 2:08:10, Conner Mantz and Clayton Young.

Now the fastest marathoner is 2:05 low with a bunch of marathoners packed up in the 2:07, 2:08 range. Like last cycle, we expect times to speed up as we get closer to the Olympics and prospective Olympians have to meet the Olympic Standard, which early rumor says will go from 2:08:10 to 2:06:30. It's possible a bunch of guys run 2:07s, 2:06s in this upcoming cycle, and the American Record may also fall.

Part of the prestige of the event is not only that you are one of the top 200 or so marathoners in the world, but also that you run a time that is considered "elite" in the context of what is being run by the rest of the country, including the top performers. That's why I think it makes sense to raise the National Standard, and the Olympic standard is also being raised by almost 2 min as well.

But I think, while amateurs are certainly going to be grumpy today, they're also going to raise the bar. If you're really a 2:20 guy, 2:15:59 is not unattainable. And even if you specifically don't get it, someone in your friend group who is also a 2:20 guy is probably going to rise to the occasion. I suspect with the influx of college marathoners at the top level and amateurs raising the standard from the middle, we may still end up with a field size in the 150-200 range.

Albertos Dog wrote:

HobbleCreek24 wrote:

I think it has to be a balance between encouraging participation and just a qualifier for the Olympics. I don't mind the fact that extra runners are allowed, in fact I think it's part of the charm, because the marathon is inherently a large community event.

But as the standard of American marathoning improves, the qualifying times should also improve. The best American marathoners are faster than they were 4 years ago, and honestly they're probably more than 2 minutes faster.

The fastest time in the post-Olympic window that I could find was Scott Fauble's 2:08:52, and most marathoners were much slower than that, in the low 2:09s on a good day, or even the 2:10s, 2:11s. And that actually played out all the way to Olympic Qualifying time. People will famously remember that the US struggled all cycle to get men to meet the Olympic standard and only 2 men eventually got the Olympic standard of 2:08:10, Conner Mantz and Clayton Young.

Now the fastest marathoner is 2:05 low with a bunch of marathoners packed up in the 2:07, 2:08 range. Like last cycle, we expect times to speed up as we get closer to the Olympics and prospective Olympians have to meet the Olympic Standard, which early rumor says will go from 2:08:10 to 2:06:30. It's possible a bunch of guys run 2:07s, 2:06s in this upcoming cycle, and the American Record may also fall.

Part of the prestige of the event is not only that you are one of the top 200 or so marathoners in the world, but also that you run a time that is considered "elite" in the context of what is being run by the rest of the country, including the top performers. That's why I think it makes sense to raise the National Standard, and the Olympic standard is also being raised by almost 2 min as well.

But I think, while amateurs are certainly going to be grumpy today, they're also going to raise the bar. If you're really a 2:20 guy, 2:15:59 is not unattainable. And even if you specifically don't get it, someone in your friend group who is also a 2:20 guy is probably going to rise to the occasion. I suspect with the influx of college marathoners at the top level and amateurs raising the standard from the middle, we may still end up with a field size in the 150-200 range.

This is well-reasoned, IMO. I'm a 2:20(:40, so perhaps 2:21) guy and have never really been an OTQ-or-bust runner (in fact, I've long said, once I break 2:20, I'm retiring). It's unreasonable to think that the time wouldn't get faster - the standard was 2:19:00 in 2012; I have to think 2:16:00 in 2025 in Alphafly 3 is easier than 2:19 in the Streak XC - and as much as "sub-elites" can complain about the change, I do think it's a case of a rising tide raising all ships. We saw it on the other side with the 2:45 to 2:37 drop.

The most unfortunate (and perhaps inevitable) part of this decision from where I'm sitting, is that this decision once again narrows the number of races that are worthwhile. It's already very hard to run 2:18 at the Carmel Marathon, or the Vermont City Marathon, or whatever - and it's going to be even harder to run 2:16. This isn't a problem that I imagine women qualifiers have to the same degree, because most marathons have at least some men who can run sub-2:40. For male qualifiers, not only are there a very limited number of runners who can hit the time in each locale, but those who are in the ballpark, fitness-wise, will congregate at CIM, Houston, Grandma's, Berlin, and/or Chicago. In my experience, Houston is logistically very easy and quite cost-effective, but if you aren't ready to race in January, the other options aren't necessarily quite so easy.

I wasn't going to aim for 2:18, and definitely won't be trying for 2:16, but I don't think this is all doom-and-gloom for the sport! Just another change to adapt to.

My $0.02.