Here’s what’s gonna happen. They’ll most likely break it. Then everyone will say one of these 3 folks will finally take down Jakob at Worlds. Then at worlds, he’ll absolutely break them (this isn’t new).
We do have to note that Kejelcha and Aregawi are unlikely to be in the 5000. For better or for worse, Ethiopian typically only does a selection race for the 10,000. Their system for the 5,000 is flawed so that someone can snipe a spot from another athlete in a late Diamond League. They also discourage doubling As a result, the 5,000 team is usually weaker and younger. I'd expect the same this year with 3 of Barega, Kejelcha, Aregawi, and Haile Bekele making up the 10,000 with none of them doubling. For the 5,000, it'll probably be Gebrhiwet, Kuma Girma, and then either Mehary, Yihune or Haile Bekele. But of the latter 3 and Gebrhiwet, they might peak for the late DL to hit the times and be fried by Tokyo. Ditto Gebrhiwet. I guess we'll see.
This year Ethiopia isn't doing the 10000m trial apparently. Sounds like they're just picking the fastest times from the window, so Kejelcha, Aregawi, Barega, Mehary, Gemechu Dida, Tadese Worku, Haile Bekele seem like the contenders with for that (in time order). Not sure how much the athletes knew about this before it was announced a few days ago but got to feel bad for Telahun Haile Bekele if he misses out considering what happened at The Ten and his struggle to get on Ethiopian teams despite how good he is. Mezgebu Sime could make the 5000 team too
The #Ethiopian Athletics Federation officially announced today that there will be no trial race for the Ethiopian 10,000m team for the Tokyo 2025 World Championships. pic.twitter.com/IpzVDkLbWe
This year Ethiopia isn't doing the 10000m trial apparently. Sounds like they're just picking the fastest times from the window, so Kejelcha, Aregawi, Barega, Mehary, Gemechu Dida, Tadese Worku, Haile Bekele seem like the contenders with for that (in time order). Not sure how much the athletes knew about this before it was announced a few days ago but got to feel bad for Telahun Haile Bekele if he misses out considering what happened at The Ten and his struggle to get on Ethiopian teams despite how good he is. Mezgebu Sime could make the 5000 team too
Coorect, so why don't we just allow mechanical pacemakers.
If you aren't going to do that, then let's just say they have to be set as a time trial with no pacers.
I dont like how it currently works. Whoever has themost money and can hire the best pacers has the best shot.
So we'll call it the Robert Johnson rule considering I used to be a pacemaker - "Mechanical pacemakers are allowed."
Rojo I have an idea - let's construct a mechanical rail that goes round the inside of the track - same as wavelight, except it has a contraption they can strap you to it, that moves around the track at a set speed. It will be like greyhound racing except you are what they are chasing.
Perfectly set to a pace that never varies, Rodger Kram will be delighted because you will provide a 3% drafting benefit, and you could even talk GST and supershoes will they are running to motivate the guys even more.
I wouldn't really describe what Ingebrigtsen does in championship 5000s as "breaking" his opponents. He outkicks them. (Similarly, I wouldn't say Hocker or Kerr "broke" Ingebrigtsen in the 1500 -- they outkicked him.)
Ingebrigtsen is unlikely to be able to "break" Aregawi etc in a championship 5000, although if healthy he can certainly outkick them. Whether he could break them in a paced 5000 remains to be seen since he has yet to run a very fast 5000. Unfortunately the injury will rob us of the opportunity to see it.
Are you joking? The person who wins is the guy who ran the best race and is the fittest. He broke everyone in Paris, and in Budapest, and in Eugene.
The difference between what happens in the 1500m is that Ingebrigtsen loses by milleseconds due to drafting benefits and lack of pacing the guys behind him benefit from. In the 5000m he wins by a much larger margin (almost 20-30 meters other than Budapest). That is a sign of strength not speed.
Ingebrigtsen's time was 13:13.66 and he took the lead with 200 meters left. That field was not "broken" with a 13:13 -- this isn't an NCAA conference championship. Ingebrigtsen outkicked them using his superior speed. Sure strength played a part, but it obviously plays a part in any long distance race. Hocker can't outkick Ingebrigtsen if he doesn't have the strength to use his kick at the end of a 3:27 race.
If you want to use margin of victory, then in Paris, Ingebrigtsen won by 1.38 seconds in the 5000 and lost by 0.59 seconds in the 1500. As a percentage of the total time running, those are about the same.
And sure everyone benefitted by drafting off him in the 1500, but that's what people with superior kicks do -- they draft off others and then outkick them -- which is exactly why Ingebrigtsen benefits from using that same tactic in the 5000.
Now if you want to say that an athlete "breaks" opponent simply by winning (as you imply in your first sentence), then fine, but of course you would have to then say that Ingebrigtsen both broke and was broken in Paris, Budapest, and Eugene.
Coorect, so why don't we just allow mechanical pacemakers.
If you aren't going to do that, then let's just say they have to be set as a time trial with no pacers.
I dont like how it currently works. Whoever has themost money and can hire the best pacers has the best shot.
So we'll call it the Robert Johnson rule considering I used to be a pacemaker - "Mechanical pacemakers are allowed."
Rojo I have an idea - let's construct a mechanical rail that goes round the inside of the track - same as wavelight, except it has a contraption they can strap you to it, that moves around the track at a set speed. It will be like greyhound racing except you are what they are chasing.
Perfectly set to a pace that never varies, Rodger Kram will be delighted because you will provide a 3% drafting benefit, and you could even talk GST and supershoes will they are running to motivate the guys even more.
Make it happen.
When someone slows down will it snap or would they dragged along on the ground.
Are you joking? The person who wins is the guy who ran the best race and is the fittest. He broke everyone in Paris, and in Budapest, and in Eugene.
The difference between what happens in the 1500m is that Ingebrigtsen loses by milleseconds due to drafting benefits and lack of pacing the guys behind him benefit from. In the 5000m he wins by a much larger margin (almost 20-30 meters other than Budapest). That is a sign of strength not speed.
Ingebrigtsen's time was 13:13.66 and he took the lead with 200 meters left. That field was not "broken" with a 13:13 -- this isn't an NCAA conference championship. Ingebrigtsen outkicked them using his superior speed. Sure strength played a part, but it obviously plays a part in any long distance race. Hocker can't outkick Ingebrigtsen if he doesn't have the strength to use his kick at the end of a 3:27 race.
If you want to use margin of victory, then in Paris, Ingebrigtsen won by 1.38 seconds in the 5000 and lost by 0.59 seconds in the 1500. As a percentage of the total time running, those are about the same.
And sure everyone benefitted by drafting off him in the 1500, but that's what people with superior kicks do -- they draft off others and then outkick them -- which is exactly why Ingebrigtsen benefits from using that same tactic in the 5000.
Now if you want to say that an athlete "breaks" opponent simply by winning (as you imply in your first sentence), then fine, but of course you would have to then say that Ingebrigtsen both broke and was broken in Paris, Budapest, and Eugene.
You simply have no idea what you are talking about. Any one of those guys can run as fast as Ingebrigtsen in the last 200m. The reason why they cannot in a 5000m is because he has superior strength. The margins of victories other than Budapest show this superior strength.
Ingebrigtsen's time was 13:13.66 and he took the lead with 200 meters left. That field was not "broken" with a 13:13 -- this isn't an NCAA conference championship. Ingebrigtsen outkicked them using his superior speed. Sure strength played a part, but it obviously plays a part in any long distance race. Hocker can't outkick Ingebrigtsen if he doesn't have the strength to use his kick at the end of a 3:27 race.
If you want to use margin of victory, then in Paris, Ingebrigtsen won by 1.38 seconds in the 5000 and lost by 0.59 seconds in the 1500. As a percentage of the total time running, those are about the same.
And sure everyone benefitted by drafting off him in the 1500, but that's what people with superior kicks do -- they draft off others and then outkick them -- which is exactly why Ingebrigtsen benefits from using that same tactic in the 5000.
Now if you want to say that an athlete "breaks" opponent simply by winning (as you imply in your first sentence), then fine, but of course you would have to then say that Ingebrigtsen both broke and was broken in Paris, Budapest, and Eugene.
You simply have no idea what you are talking about. Any one of those guys can run as fast as Ingebrigtsen in the last 200m. The reason why they cannot in a 5000m is because he has superior strength. The margins of victories other than Budapest show this superior strength.
THIS. Drafting and position are hardly a thing for the first 4000 meters plus in a 5000. notice half the field running in lanes 2 and 3. Ingebrigtsen running off to the edge to grab drinks in the middle of the race in Eugene. And then destroying the field over the final 1000.
You simply have no idea what you are talking about. Any one of those guys can run as fast as Ingebrigtsen in the last 200m. The reason why they cannot in a 5000m is because he has superior strength. The margins of victories other than Budapest show this superior strength.
I think you guys are arguing a bit all over the place. Look at the field Jakob was beating in Paris: Kwemoi - Not as fast as Jakob, nor as strong Fisher - As strong as Jakob, not as fast Lobalu - Not as fast as Jakob, nor as strong Gebrhiwet - As strong as Jakob, not as fast (which is why he is panicking and sprinting too early) Aregawi (indoors) - As strong as Jakob, not as fast Kejelcha - As strong as Jakob, not as fast
Amongst his 5,000m competition, Jakob holds the speed advantage against basically all of them. This could change IF Hocker were to make a 5,000m final. Ditto Nuguse/Kerr were they to attempt the double. Barega is one of the fastest 5,000m guys, running low 3:30s and winning World Indoors 3K. But you saw what happened as soon as Kerr/Nuguse entered the fray and dropped sub-26 for the last 200 of a slow race.
Coorect, so why don't we just allow mechanical pacemakers.
If you aren't going to do that, then let's just say they have to be set as a time trial with no pacers.
I dont like how it currently works. Whoever has themost money and can hire the best pacers has the best shot.
So we'll call it the Robert Johnson rule considering I used to be a pacemaker - "Mechanical pacemakers are allowed."
Rojo I have an idea - let's construct a mechanical rail that goes round the inside of the track - same as wavelight, except it has a contraption they can strap you to it, that moves around the track at a set speed. It will be like greyhound racing except you are what they are chasing.
Perfectly set to a pace that never varies, Rodger Kram will be delighted because you will provide a 3% drafting benefit, and you could even talk GST and supershoes will they are running to motivate the guys even more.
You simply have no idea what you are talking about. Any one of those guys can run as fast as Ingebrigtsen in the last 200m. The reason why they cannot in a 5000m is because he has superior strength. The margins of victories other than Budapest show this superior strength.
I think you guys are arguing a bit all over the place. Look at the field Jakob was beating in Paris: Kwemoi - Not as fast as Jakob, nor as strong Fisher - As strong as Jakob, not as fast Lobalu - Not as fast as Jakob, nor as strong Gebrhiwet - As strong as Jakob, not as fast (which is why he is panicking and sprinting too early) Aregawi (indoors) - As strong as Jakob, not as fast Kejelcha - As strong as Jakob, not as fast
Amongst his 5,000m competition, Jakob holds the speed advantage against basically all of them. This could change IF Hocker were to make a 5,000m final. Ditto Nuguse/Kerr were they to attempt the double. Barega is one of the fastest 5,000m guys, running low 3:30s and winning World Indoors 3K. But you saw what happened as soon as Kerr/Nuguse entered the fray and dropped sub-26 for the last 200 of a slow race.
I think we all are confused on what kicking even is. I don’t care to argue more. When Jakob runs sub 12:35 none of this will matter.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
You simply have no idea what you are talking about. Any one of those guys can run as fast as Ingebrigtsen in the last 200m. The reason why they cannot in a 5000m is because he has superior strength. The margins of victories other than Budapest show this superior strength.
I think you guys are arguing a bit all over the place. Look at the field Jakob was beating in Paris: Kwemoi - Not as fast as Jakob, nor as strong Fisher - As strong as Jakob, not as fast Lobalu - Not as fast as Jakob, nor as strong Gebrhiwet - As strong as Jakob, not as fast (which is why he is panicking and sprinting too early) Aregawi (indoors) - As strong as Jakob, not as fast Kejelcha - As strong as Jakob, not as fast
Amongst his 5,000m competition, Jakob holds the speed advantage against basically all of them. This could change IF Hocker were to make a 5,000m final. Ditto Nuguse/Kerr were they to attempt the double. Barega is one of the fastest 5,000m guys, running low 3:30s and winning World Indoors 3K. But you saw what happened as soon as Kerr/Nuguse entered the fray and dropped sub-26 for the last 200 of a slow race.
sure. or if lyles or wanyoni were to make a 5000 final.
Hocker being competitive in a worlds 5000 is laughable at this point.
I think what Jakob would say is that with 400 to go in a 5K, his lactate is the lowest and thus he’s able to summon the fastest final lap at that point. It’s not like in an all out 400 he’s the fastest, he just can deploy his speed better than everyone else at the end of the race when others are tired.
I think we all are confused on what kicking even is. I don’t care to argue more. When Jakob runs sub 12:35 none of this will matter.
I think people are getting tripped up on the idea that Jakobs strength alone is what wins these races. He’s beating guys who run sub-58 in the half. He is plain faster than them, and in a 13:05+ race he simply has their all-out sprint covered. Like vs. Aregawi he had the extra gear even after Aregawi beat him to the front and fended him off a time or two. If he weren’t strong enough to run just as fast, faster or close to as fast as these guys at 5,000 it wouldn’t matter, but he is. Then his superior speed comes out and he can drop 1:50 last 800 and 53 last lap.
I think what Jakob would say is that with 400 to go in a 5K, his lactate is the lowest and thus he’s able to summon the fastest final lap at that point. It’s not like in an all out 400 he’s the fastest, he just can deploy his speed better than everyone else at the end of the race when others are tired.
While that may be right, I’m not sure who amongst the serious 5000m contenders would be faster in an all-out 400. Who would you pick to beat him?