Kipyegon: Sub4 mile attempt coming? The beginning of a legendary season

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Francis Fratelli wrote:

I would agree that it does. You don’t know me, and there’s no way for you to believe what I’m saying. However, I can assure you that this is completely serious. I know they have already approached some pacemakers as well in addition to the previous info given yesterday.

I absolutely believe this/you.

This is where Nike, despite finding a way to totally ruin their business over the last 3-4 years, has and will always be ahead of it's competitors when it comes to marketing ambition.

Easy to forget that 10-111 years ago, the sub 2 hour marathon was in general met with rolling eyes and scoffs. Kimetto had run 2.02.57 on the worlds fastest course in Berlin, with "BOOST" foam midsoled shoes and the concept and it had taken 16 years to take basically 3min off daCostas' 2.06.05. But Nike saw gains to be made in footwear, pacing and optimal racing surface. They also knew they had one of the alltime great distance running talents in Kipchoge who was really starting to hit his straps after moving to the marathon in 2013. So they invested in the Breaking 2 project and proved it could be done.

And they are always looking for moments like these and they need one. The timing and circumstances match up with 2016/17. Nike was losing market share to adidas because of the Ultraboost, slipping out of the forefront of peoples minds when it came to performance running (adi also had "held" the marathon WR since 2007 with Geb) and this changed that all. Same thing has happened now on a much bigger scale but its also no secret that Nike is full on investing back in the running category from EKINs, to product and activations, and something like this would be right on par with that strategy.

One thing Nike likes being is successful. The bones of the breaking 2 were there for a long time, they just wouldn't commit until they knew they had the athlete and it was possible. If Kipchoge had only run 2.02.30 at Monza they whole thing would have been perceived as a dramatic failure. I guess they would be really trying to see if this was possible with her. Like if you publicize this, put cash behind it, probably a new product etc etc and she goes out and runs 4.07.1 or maybe breaks the record by a second, it's cool - that would be I guess an "worlds best" performance - but that won't be good enough. I think running sub 4.04 would be seen as a pass, enough to show there was something in the idea/concept, but even that seems unlikely - that on it's own is a 1.4% drop. Not convinced a few male pacemakers are worth that much, christ.

Do you have any intel on a go/no-go for this?

Francis Fratelli wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

I absolutely believe this/you.

This is where Nike, despite finding a way to totally ruin their business over the last 3-4 years, has and will always be ahead of it's competitors when it comes to marketing ambition.

Easy to forget that 10-111 years ago, the sub 2 hour marathon was in general met with rolling eyes and scoffs. Kimetto had run 2.02.57 on the worlds fastest course in Berlin, with "BOOST" foam midsoled shoes and the concept and it had taken 16 years to take basically 3min off daCostas' 2.06.05. But Nike saw gains to be made in footwear, pacing and optimal racing surface. They also knew they had one of the alltime great distance running talents in Kipchoge who was really starting to hit his straps after moving to the marathon in 2013. So they invested in the Breaking 2 project and proved it could be done.

And they are always looking for moments like these and they need one. The timing and circumstances match up with 2016/17. Nike was losing market share to adidas because of the Ultraboost, slipping out of the forefront of peoples minds when it came to performance running (adi also had "held" the marathon WR since 2007 with Geb) and this changed that all. Same thing has happened now on a much bigger scale but its also no secret that Nike is full on investing back in the running category from EKINs, to product and activations, and something like this would be right on par with that strategy.

One thing Nike likes being is successful. The bones of the breaking 2 were there for a long time, they just wouldn't commit until they knew they had the athlete and it was possible. If Kipchoge had only run 2.02.30 at Monza they whole thing would have been perceived as a dramatic failure. I guess they would be really trying to see if this was possible with her. Like if you publicize this, put cash behind it, probably a new product etc etc and she goes out and runs 4.07.1 or maybe breaks the record by a second, it's cool - that would be I guess an "worlds best" performance - but that won't be good enough. I think running sub 4.04 would be seen as a pass, enough to show there was something in the idea/concept, but even that seems unlikely - that on it's own is a 1.4% drop. Not convinced a few male pacemakers are worth that much, christ.

Do you have any intel on a go/no-go for this?

What I was told would be that preliminary plans are being made for a late June/early July attempt. A final decision will be made at the end of may when considering her fitness and results. That’s everything that I know. Her open in late apri in China DL seems to corroborate that plan in a way.

this and this wrote:

Since the run may not be certifiable for record purposes, there are many things they could manipulate to shave 7.64 seconds off her mile time.

These are in addition to optimal drafting techniques, which have already been estimated to allow her to run 3:59.

They do not have to do this on a standard track. The turns on a track slow people down. It was estimated that a Breaking 2 course with minimal turns might be worth 20 seconds or so in a marathon, so a course with minimal turns at a faster 4 flat/mile pace might be worth 1-2 seconds. They could lay down a special one lane half mile or even mile track with wide turns. Or lay down a flat straight single lane of Mondo or whatever surface they believe is fastest.

They could optimize the surface of that track based on Kipyegon's weight, stride length, footplant, shoe selection, etc. We already know there is a wide range of variation in track surfaces with some tracks known as being fast for sprinters while others are faster for distance runners. An optimized track surface could easily be worth 1 or 2 seconds.

An optimized track surface would be developed in conjunction with an optimized shoe.

A modified track configuration could allow for a flying V formation of pacers surrounding her. It might be difficult to have pacers to the left of her on a normal track, but they could always run just inside the rail. A modified and tighter flying V formation of skilled and trained pacers that practiced with Kipyegon could provide additional time savings.

They could optimize pacing strategy using wavelights and highly skilled pacers to draft off of. Likely starting out slightly slower than even splits and finishing faster.

It will be much easier to find a 4 minute window of optimal weather for a mile run than it was to find a 120 minute window of optimal weather for a marathon.

Another advantage they have over Breaking 2 is the ability to make multiple attempts at a sub 4 mile over the course of a few days. The much shorter distance would allow them to start numerous attempts that were ended after 1/2 or even 3/4 of a mile with less cumulative stress/fatigue than corresponding attempts to break 2 in a marathon. They could also start and abort numerous attempts, and then start another attempt again and again, on the same day or even during the same session. They could decide to continue or abort any attempt based on monitoring of heart and respiration rates, many other variables and the way she feels.

this and this wrote:

Since the run may not be certifiable for record purposes, there are many things they could manipulate to shave 7.64 seconds off her mile time.

These are in addition to optimal drafting techniques, which have already been estimated to allow her to run 3:59.

They do not have to do this on a standard track. The turns on a track slow people down. It was estimated that a Breaking 2 course with minimal turns might be worth 20 seconds or so in a marathon, so a course with minimal turns at a faster 4 flat/mile pace might be worth 1-2 seconds. They could lay down a special one lane half mile or even mile track with wide turns. Or lay down a flat straight single lane of Mondo or whatever surface they believe is fastest.

They could optimize the surface of that track based on Kipyegon's weight, stride length, footplant, shoe selection, etc. We already know there is a wide range of variation in track surfaces with some tracks known as being fast for sprinters while others are faster for distance runners. An optimized track surface could easily be worth 1 or 2 seconds.

An optimized track surface would be developed in conjunction with an optimized shoe.

A modified track configuration could allow for a flying V formation of pacers surrounding her. It might be difficult to have pacers to the left of her on a normal track, but they could always run just inside the rail. A modified and tighter flying V formation of skilled and trained pacers that practiced with Kipyegon could provide additional time savings.

They could optimize pacing strategy using wavelights and highly skilled pacers to draft off of. Likely starting out slightly slower than even splits and finishing faster.

It will be much easier to find a 4 minute window of optimal weather for a mile run than it was to find a 120 minute window of optimal weather for a marathon.

Another advantage they have over Breaking 2 is the ability to make multiple attempts at a sub 4 mile over the course of a few days. The much shorter distance would allow them to start numerous attempts that were ended after 1/2 or even 3/4 of a mile with less cumulative stress/fatigue than corresponding attempts to break 2 in a marathon. They could also start and abort numerous attempts, and then start another attempt again and again, on the same day or even during the same session. They could decide to continue or abort any attempt based on monitoring of heart and respiration rates, many other variables and the way she feels.

Octopus wrote:

bhah wrote:

No, it doesn’t kill the hype and it’s not too complicated for normies to understand. The bigger factor is that there isn’t much hype to distance running at all amongst normies because they just don’t care much about it.

Yes pro running is a niche sport that few people follow, but the INEOS 1:59 Challenge probably got more attention than any other running event the past decade. Search for it on YouTube and look at how many views the videos have:

INEOS 1:59 Challenge Live - 7.3 million views
Eliud Kipchoge - The Final Kilometre of the INEOS 1:59 Challenge - 10 million views
Eliud Kipchoge: My Sub 2 Hour Marathon (Documentary) - 939K views
Scientists Told Him A Sub-2 Hour Marathon Was Impossible… - 6.1 million views
1:59:40! Kipchoge runs historic first sub-2 hour marathon | NBC Sports 1 million views
Full race: Eliud Kipchoge makes history in Vienna winning under 2 hours 515k views
How Eliud Kipchoge Ran a Sub 2 Hour Marathon - 10 million views
Eliud Kipchoge 1:59:40 - Inspirational Video 2.9 million views
HAIL THE KING: Eliud Kipchoge makes history 1.1 million views

If Kiplimo runs a sub-2 world record will it receive the same level of attention?