Why can Brazier go from 1:47-1:43 from age 18 to 19, but Hoey can't go from 1:47-1:43 from 18 to 24?

You think 5 anonymous people on their phones are somehow indicative of real world people involved in the sport. Thousands of athletes, coaches, and fans disagree with you. Show up USAs or BU this weekend and talk to track people.

I appreciate the passion and alternative thinking, but......

Yes 1:43 to 1:41 was surprising for Hoppel but it's far from crazier from 1:47 to 1:43 for Hoey.

1) Hoppel was 4th in the world in 2019. He was 4th in the world in 2024. One could argue nothing really changed.

2) Hoppel moved to altitude for the 1st time when he went from 1:43 to 1:41 and started training with Kessler.

I can't believe you are really arguing that huge improvement from prodigies at age 18-19 (Brazier) is more suspicious than a huge improvement for a former prodigy at age 24 (Hoey). Hoey looked like a lot of former mid-d prodigies who peaked as a teen (Obea Moore?) and never was going to impove and now he may be #1 in the world.

But can we as a board please agree to focus on the more important pressing doping related questions? How in the world did someone with my genes (Wejo) go from 29:49 to 28:27 at age 26 , almost 27 (and then to 28:06 at age 29)? We are approaching the 25 year anniversary of that improvement and the statute of limitations to question the validity of that expires at 25 I believe. ;)

I have no suspicion about Hoey, Hoppel, or Brazier.

I have slight suspicion of Brazier because he was in NOP, but no suspicion of the other two.

Look at Rob Heppenstall - he also (like Brazier and Hooey) ran 1.47 in HS, yet has never broken 1.46, even with a good (if not great) College career - made every NCAA final except his last ( due to injury), two medals. Same age as Brazier, if he made a breakthrough now, does that mean doping or just finally realizing his potential after he figured out what he needed to do mentally and physically. Far too much absolutism on this board (and seemingly in American society itself, based on the political threads), where life has shades of gray (or grey if you are open to other than your own perspective) that dull the edges of extremes - someone is doping because of prejudices or closed minds, when a positive test result isn't produced. That is the danger of this board (in disagreement with the Brojo's stance on doping) when leaping to conclusions based on a "feeling".

Just as Wejo presumably developed to his potential, where rojo didn't, lots of factors come into play. Coaching can be a very important one - Wejo with Kellogg, Hooey with Rinaldi. Would Peter Snell have been as great without Lydiard (who knows), Jakob Ingebrigtsen is certainly just as good (or better) without his coach (Dad). One of the factors in America (especially in HS) is that coaching is inconsistent - some very good coaches who develop talent, and poor coaches who waste talent. I would argue that this dichotomy exists in College as well.

I have always felt that more talent is left undeveloped (often because of the athlete themselves) than is realized because the factors necessary to achieve success are not easily understood in their entirety.

I'm with OP. No idea why people have such a huge stick up their ass about Hoey. We have seen FAR weirder things and far crazier progressions. Hoey ran 1:47 as an 18 year old senior, why is it so shocking to people that he's running under 1:44 now six years later?

The thing people should be concerned about is the entire 800m field at the 2024 Olympic final. Hoppel ran 1:41.67 and got beaten by Hoey, but Hoey is the one doping?

I suspect that final will ultimately be like the women's 1500 final of 2012.

He was a mid 20s 1:47 guy who dropped 3+s? Who else has done that? Now maybe there are tons of 1:47 mid 20s guys who are 12 months of training from running 1:43s. But it isn’t something we see a ton of. If the athlete special runs a 3:49 I am not going to talk about how he ran a 3:39 pre supershoes half a decade ago….

Just as many as ran 1:47 in HS

I finally beat my high school prs and qualified for USAs for the first time in my mid 20s, and I didn't dope. Sometimes people take awhile to figure things out. Talent is talent, and Hoey is finally running like his high school talent showed he could. In high school he was running like he could be the best American 800 runner ever. Why is it shocking that he might fulfill that?

Hey Rojo, I'm pretty sure Peach Pit is a she/her not a he/him. (Just listened to the the Friday 15)

It's possible that they're both doping but Brazier's training is well documented. He's well-known for running lower mileage & seemed to have a ceiling for improvement. His 400 got better during this timeframe. He chipped away at his 800 time as a college runner.

Hoey, however, ran 1:47 for several years. At some point you are who you are. I'm much more inclined to buy Brazier making improvements in college than someone making a jump after years of not running world class level times. Maybe Brazier was doping the whole time or doped to get down to 1:42 or whatever. Who knows. But his progression is much more believable.

So if a kid who ran 3:59 in hs, and then spends the next half dozen years running 3:59 miles and then runs a 3:48, you go no big deal. After all he showed talent as a 18/19 year old… Rapid improvement doesn’t guarantee doping. But it is suspicious. we can always make excuses to justify stuff. Nordas was too busy studying to train. Bell had injuries. Katir got a new coach. Wejo moved to altitude. Who knows what is clean and what is doors these days.

I was more suspicious of Hoey before I knew he had run 1:47 in HS.

Lets say the shoes are worth 1s and bicarb is worth 1s (I'm assuming he does bicarb but don't actually know).

Would we be suspicious if someone dropped from 1:45 to 1:43, after a few years of being stuck at 1:45? I think we'd find it remarkable but believable.

Now factor in some things that are difficult to quantify: 1) how much might his coaching change be worth? 2) how much might the mental boost of finally getting past your years old PR might be worth? 3) are some people super-responders to bicarb?

Lots of very weird things going on in distance running these days, Hoey's improvement is just one of many things that are hard to comprehend. I know some people dope and we should not expect everything is on the up and up, but at the same time, I have a hard time believing that everyone in running, from pro to high school, men and women, are all cheating. But there are unbelievable things going on at every level of the game. I give Hoey the benefit of the doubt. Now if he suddenly runs 1:37 or something, that would require an explanation.

Now that we have an actual President instead of a brain dead cadaver, no one cares about pronouns anymore.

Maybe it’s because they’re different people with different skill sets