You don’t know what you were thinking? Seems like par for the course, like the other day spitting out “… but he didn’t win the Olympics,” or whatever re Jim Ryun without considering altitude in ‘68, being tripped in ‘72, basically acting like Armstronglivs does with Jakob.
Funny stuff, but it’s obvious Armstronglivs is mentally ill when it comes to his fixation on Jakob. Why all the worry about what Jakob will do? Are Nuguse and Hocker going to use the same tactics… again? We know Kerr will if he makes the final. Considering how it’s obvious he struggles to keep a stiff upper lip since his personal debacle in Paris it will be intersting to see if he truly recovers from putting his foot in his big mouth and Hocker putting his foot in his rear end.
You don’t know what you were thinking? Seems like par for the course, like the other day spitting out “… but he didn’t win the Olympics,” or whatever re Jim Ryun without considering altitude in ‘68, being tripped in ‘72, basically acting like Armstronglivs does with Jakob.
Funny stuff, but it’s obvious Armstronglivs is mentally ill when it comes to his fixation on Jakob. Why all the worry about what Jakob will do? Are Nuguse and Hocker going to use the same tactics… again? We know Kerr will if he makes the final. Considering how it’s obvious he struggles to keep a stiff upper lip since his personal debacle in Paris it will be intersting to see if he truly recovers from putting his foot in his big mouth and Hocker putting his foot in his rear end.
Since everyone here is posting about Jakob they, too, must be "mentally ill" - like you say. Welcome to that club.
Funny stuff, but it’s obvious Armstronglivs is mentally ill when it comes to his fixation on Jakob. Why all the worry about what Jakob will do? Are Nuguse and Hocker going to use the same tactics… again? We know Kerr will if he makes the final. Considering how it’s obvious he struggles to keep a stiff upper lip since his personal debacle in Paris it will be intersting to see if he truly recovers from putting his foot in his big mouth and Hocker putting his foot in his rear end.
Since everyone here is posting about Jakob they, too, must be "mentally ill" - like you say. Welcome to that club.
You didn't understand this one sentence you are replying to.
Funny stuff, but it’s obvious Armstronglivs is mentally ill when it comes to his fixation on Jakob. Why all the worry about what Jakob will do? Are Nuguse and Hocker going to use the same tactics… again? We know Kerr will if he makes the final. Considering how it’s obvious he struggles to keep a stiff upper lip since his personal debacle in Paris it will be intersting to see if he truly recovers from putting his foot in his big mouth and Hocker putting his foot in his rear end.
Since everyone here is posting about Jakob they, too, must be "mentally ill" - like you say. Welcome to that club.
No one, absolutely no one, posts half of what you do about Jakob. Ever!
Kicker vs strength runner problem has been around forever, even in hs dual meets.
Kicker sits and waits, strength runner leads and tries to run kick out of the kicker...or pull away. Jakob's best chance to win is to lead early.
If he waits to lead and pace crawls, he's dead already early in race. He wants it to be a full 1500m of racing, not a 700 jog, followed by hard 800. He's not the fastest 800 runner in field either.
He can win this way, he just has to run the perfect race.
Concerns of drafting, lane 2 in a 1500 etc are overrated. Look at Hocker's gold. In a kicker's race he did the impossible...actually kicking twice against world class competitors!
Simple, on that particular day, at that particular moment, he had the best fitness. Could have been as simple as the perfect squirt of adrenaline, but in crunch time be had the wherewithal to kick twice! (not a usual effective plan)
I don't think this is true. I think Jakob is probably the fittest guy in every race he contests. There's a reason he's essentially unbeatable in rabbited races.
I think he has better individual odds than anyone else, but he's certainly not favored to beat the field. At the end of the race there's a good chance that someone has the wheels left to outkick him. The 2nd-4th best in the world are far better than they've ever been.
The problem with running from the front is that you waste probably 0.5s per lap having to draft, which means you need a fitness gap of ~2s over the entire field even if you execute the race perfectly. Since Hocker ran 3:27.65, it means Jakob needed to be in 3:25.65 shape at minimum. Frankly, he probably wasn't far off, but his splits weren't ideal (54.9-56.6-55.8-40.9) which complicated things further. He also made tactical mistakes like wasting energy by surging with 700 to go. In comparison, Hocker's splits were much more even with 55.6-56.4-55.8-39.6. Tim in 2019 is the only guy in history who's been able to win from the front and that's because he did have that fitness gap and people were too afraid to go with him. Not anymore.
So how can Jakob win this year? I think El G's strategy in 2004 is the way to go, just sit on the rail for 700m and just started grinding everyone's wheels off with 800m to go. In Eugene he didn't really commit enough. Alternatively, I think doing nothing special and just sitting in the pack like everyone else would give him surprisingly decent odds. His kick is very underrated, we just never get to see it because he always burns himself out too early (which of course is a risk he'll have to take with the El G strategy).
Been saying this since 2022, the way for him to win is with a long ramp-up to the finish. Hocker, Kerr, Nuguse are great athletes but they don't actually have much better speed than Jakob, what they have is acceleration. He can run a 51-second last lap, we've seen it before, but what he can't do is flip a switch and increase his speed by 5-10% in a few meters. Kerr and Hocker both have that, and I've seen Nuguse do it too (but less consistently).
Running 1200m+ from the front and trying to run 3:27-3:28 is just not going to cut it. At the Olympics, Jakob ran that way and ran faster than anyone else in the field had ever run before by a full second, and he still got destroyed because the other three ran 3:27 thanks to their perfect pacer. Even if he massively levels up this year and gets into 3:24-3:25 shape, that only means he'll be able to run ~3:26 without a pacer, and I wouldn't put it past at least Hocker to be able to do that (especially after his 7:23i).
Instead, he should tuck in and let the pace be whatever it will be for 600m. There are enough guys that like to run fast they will probably run 57-60 pace, which is easier for Jakob than anyone else in the field and probably won't even get his blood lactate up. At that point, a slow but steady move to the front, and then a gradual build-up to the finish will be the way to go. Something like 14.0, 27.8 (13.8), 41.4 (13.6), 54.8 (13.4), 1:08.0 (13.2), 1:21.0 (13.0), 1:33.8 (12.8), 1:46.4 (12.6) should be definitely possible for him (basically the same as El G). That 25.4 and 12.6 at the end are not going to do anything to Hocker or Kerr, but the key is the 53.6 from 900m to 1300m. That's where the other three have a choice to either drop back and attempt to catch Jakob with a blazing last 200 of 24.xx, or they stay with him and burn their kicks off.
The key to convincing him would probably just be making him rewatch 2000 and 2004 2004. Compare him to El G, and Hocker/Kerr to Lagat/Ngeny. Tell him that this is how the GOAT won, and it's still considered one of the greatest races of all time. If he could somehow surpass that race (which I think he can), it would put him one step closer to surpassing El G.
The 2022 strategy is sound, but he tried to “control it” instead of just blasting the pace. I’d advise Jakob to accept that it might be more like 3:33 pace through 700 and then go with sub-1:48 neg split squeeze from there.
This is almost exactly what El G did to finally win his Olympic gold in 2004!
Jakob is the fastest in the world with a pacer, but he will run a second or two slower without any pacer, and that isn't a large enough gap to drop everyone solo. If he takes it out hard and leads it all, he is just a pacer for everyone else and one of the few guys who can run somewhat close to him will have a good kick for the win. Nuguse/Hocker/Kessler/Kerr, maybe the young guys Laros or Myers will be even better by September, that's several guys who are only 2-3 seconds behind Jakob with a pacer, so if Jakob slows up slightly without a pacer they're all right with him in the final 200 meters.
Funny stuff, but it’s obvious Armstronglivs is mentally ill when it comes to his fixation on Jakob. Why all the worry about what Jakob will do? Are Nuguse and Hocker going to use the same tactics… again? We know Kerr will if he makes the final. Considering how it’s obvious he struggles to keep a stiff upper lip since his personal debacle in Paris it will be intersting to see if he truly recovers from putting his foot in his big mouth and Hocker putting his foot in his rear end.
Since everyone here is posting about Jakob they, too, must be "mentally ill" - like you say. Welcome to that club.
Amateurish deflection. You really are dense and rather ill.
Interesting take by Nuguse to kick things off. Will be interesting to see if any of the Paris medalists decide to change things up.
Since everyone here is posting about Jakob they, too, must be "mentally ill" - like you say. Welcome to that club.
No one, absolutely no one, posts half of what you do about Jakob. Ever!
I'm pretty sure on this whole globe you will not find just one other person who has written as much about Jakob than Armstronglivs.
New facts which he presented? - Zero.
Just that he has lost the last three global 1500m finals, that he has set his 5000m PB in 2021 and that he had to walk during his Half-Marathon debut.
Any - again: any - other poster in those threads knew this already. But still those facts were presented again and again hundreds of times by this mentally ill person.
I don't think this is true. I think Jakob is probably the fittest guy in every race he contests. There's a reason he's essentially unbeatable in rabbited races.
I think he has better individual odds than anyone else, but he's certainly not favored to beat the field. At the end of the race there's a good chance that someone has the wheels left to outkick him. The 2nd-4th best in the world are far better than they've ever been.
The problem with running from the front is that you waste probably 0.5s per lap having to draft, which means you need a fitness gap of ~2s over the entire field even if you execute the race perfectly. Since Hocker ran 3:27.65, it means Jakob needed to be in 3:25.65 shape at minimum. Frankly, he probably wasn't far off, but his splits weren't ideal (54.9-56.6-55.8-40.9) which complicated things further. He also made tactical mistakes like wasting energy by surging with 700 to go. In comparison, Hocker's splits were much more even with 55.6-56.4-55.8-39.6. Tim in 2019 is the only guy in history who's been able to win from the front and that's because he did have that fitness gap and people were too afraid to go with him. Not anymore.
So how can Jakob win this year? I think El G's strategy in 2004 is the way to go, just sit on the rail for 700m and just started grinding everyone's wheels off with 800m to go. In Eugene he didn't really commit enough. Alternatively, I think doing nothing special and just sitting in the pack like everyone else would give him surprisingly decent odds. His kick is very underrated, we just never get to see it because he always burns himself out too early (which of course is a risk he'll have to take with the El G strategy).
Been saying this since 2022, the way for him to win is with a long ramp-up to the finish. Hocker, Kerr, Nuguse are great athletes but they don't actually have much better speed than Jakob, what they have is acceleration. He can run a 51-second last lap, we've seen it before, but what he can't do is flip a switch and increase his speed by 5-10% in a few meters. Kerr and Hocker both have that, and I've seen Nuguse do it too (but less consistently).
Running 1200m+ from the front and trying to run 3:27-3:28 is just not going to cut it. At the Olympics, Jakob ran that way and ran faster than anyone else in the field had ever run before by a full second, and he still got destroyed because the other three ran 3:27 thanks to their perfect pacer. Even if he massively levels up this year and gets into 3:24-3:25 shape, that only means he'll be able to run ~3:26 without a pacer, and I wouldn't put it past at least Hocker to be able to do that (especially after his 7:23i).
Instead, he should tuck in and let the pace be whatever it will be for 600m. There are enough guys that like to run fast they will probably run 57-60 pace, which is easier for Jakob than anyone else in the field and probably won't even get his blood lactate up. At that point, a slow but steady move to the front, and then a gradual build-up to the finish will be the way to go. Something like 14.0, 27.8 (13.8), 41.4 (13.6), 54.8 (13.4), 1:08.0 (13.2), 1:21.0 (13.0), 1:33.8 (12.8), 1:46.4 (12.6) should be definitely possible for him (basically the same as El G). That 25.4 and 12.6 at the end are not going to do anything to Hocker or Kerr, but the key is the 53.6 from 900m to 1300m. That's where the other three have a choice to either drop back and attempt to catch Jakob with a blazing last 200 of 24.xx, or they stay with him and burn their kicks off.
The key to convincing him would probably just be making him rewatch 2000 and 2004 2004. Compare him to El G, and Hocker/Kerr to Lagat/Ngeny. Tell him that this is how the GOAT won, and it's still considered one of the greatest races of all time. If he could somehow surpass that race (which I think he can), it would put him one step closer to surpassing El G.
It’s top end-speed,and not acceleration that puts Ingebrigtsen at a disadvantage. They’re already running at close to 16 mph and not coming out of the blocks. In last year’s Olympics, and the last 2 WC, he’s been passed coming down the stretch which has nothing to do with acceleration. If the others did accomplish a sudden acceleration further back, there would a corresponding loss of energy.
Ingebrigtsen cannot win a 900m race and it would also be impossible for him to run such precise splits. If he did choose the 600m strategy, he would need to run a hard, even pace from there to where the kicking starts. If I analyzed your strategy correctly, you’ve got him finishing in 1:46.6, or .2 seconds faster than his PR.
Watching something he can’t do, won’t help him much.
Been saying this since 2022, the way for him to win is with a long ramp-up to the finish. Hocker, Kerr, Nuguse are great athletes but they don't actually have much better speed than Jakob, what they have is acceleration. He can run a 51-second last lap, we've seen it before, but what he can't do is flip a switch and increase his speed by 5-10% in a few meters. Kerr and Hocker both have that, and I've seen Nuguse do it too (but less consistently).
Running 1200m+ from the front and trying to run 3:27-3:28 is just not going to cut it. At the Olympics, Jakob ran that way and ran faster than anyone else in the field had ever run before by a full second, and he still got destroyed because the other three ran 3:27 thanks to their perfect pacer. Even if he massively levels up this year and gets into 3:24-3:25 shape, that only means he'll be able to run ~3:26 without a pacer, and I wouldn't put it past at least Hocker to be able to do that (especially after his 7:23i).
Instead, he should tuck in and let the pace be whatever it will be for 600m. There are enough guys that like to run fast they will probably run 57-60 pace, which is easier for Jakob than anyone else in the field and probably won't even get his blood lactate up. At that point, a slow but steady move to the front, and then a gradual build-up to the finish will be the way to go. Something like 14.0, 27.8 (13.8), 41.4 (13.6), 54.8 (13.4), 1:08.0 (13.2), 1:21.0 (13.0), 1:33.8 (12.8), 1:46.4 (12.6) should be definitely possible for him (basically the same as El G). That 25.4 and 12.6 at the end are not going to do anything to Hocker or Kerr, but the key is the 53.6 from 900m to 1300m. That's where the other three have a choice to either drop back and attempt to catch Jakob with a blazing last 200 of 24.xx, or they stay with him and burn their kicks off.
The key to convincing him would probably just be making him rewatch 2000 and 2004 2004. Compare him to El G, and Hocker/Kerr to Lagat/Ngeny. Tell him that this is how the GOAT won, and it's still considered one of the greatest races of all time. If he could somehow surpass that race (which I think he can), it would put him one step closer to surpassing El G.
It’s top end-speed,and not acceleration that puts Ingebrigtsen at a disadvantage. They’re already running at close to 16 mph and not coming out of the blocks. In last year’s Olympics, and the last 2 WC, he’s been passed coming down the stretch which has nothing to do with acceleration. If the others did accomplish a sudden acceleration further back, there would a corresponding loss of energy.
Ingebrigtsen cannot win a 900m race and it would also be impossible for him to run such precise splits. If he did choose the 600m strategy, he would need to run a hard, even pace from there to where the kicking starts. If I analyzed your strategy correctly, you’ve got him finishing in 1:46.6, or .2 seconds faster than his PR.
Watching something he can’t do, won’t help him much.
It’s 1:46.4: he added it up right there in his post. I agree that he cannot run a 1:46.4 last 800 with a 25.4 last 200/12.6 last 800 (50.4 pace? Really?) in a 3:28-3:31 race. The splits are too fast, but I agree with the strategy.
Jakob could learn something from the 80s Cram v Ovett duels. Where Ovett had a decisive quick-break acceleration advantage but no actual top speed advantage, at least when everyone was at peak. Crystal Palace 83 shows how Cram (Jakob) could race the big kicker most effectively. Also Coe at the 84OG was interviewed regarding how to race Cram and he said my goal was not to let Cram get in front on the last lap because he was very hard to pass once he had only clear track in front of him and when everyone was at their limit. The timing of the tactics is most important. I agree with the poster upthread who said 2023 WC 15 was Jakob's best tactical effort but he was not at 100pc and was going to lose regardless.
Nobody even asks about Jakob's tactics in the 5k because everyone, including his competitors, knows it doesn't matter, he wins regardless.