You may recall he went out at 3:24 pace. It was either win or fail spectacularly at the end. he wasn’t racing for silver or bronze. So your point is pointless
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
Wouldn’t say his chances are as bad as some others are saying. Though I do believe he loses in most scenarios, he is still the favorite in a race that is paced given his PR.
Best shot in my opinion is letting someone lead for the first 900m (it would have to be really fast, sub 3:30 pace) and then taking the lead and gradually picking it up the last 600m.
That being said, I see Hocker as the heavy favorite with Kerr, Nuguse, and Jingy tied for second.
It’s extremely unlikely that someone will push sub-3:30 pace through 900m. If Ingebrigtsen doesn’t take the lead, it might be as slow as 2:00 through 800m. Shortening the race, doesn’t do him any good, which is why he tried to win from the front in Paris.
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
They aren’t catching up, strength-wise. None them will ever run 7:17.55 or challenge him in a 5000m. If Fisher and Hocker run a 3000m outdoors, it probably won’t be any faster than what they did yesterday. I don’t see Kerr, who turns 28 this year, running any better than his 8:01 2-mile from last year.
Last year was the perfect storm for him to finish 4th. It might turn out that the three guys that beat him, ran the races of their lives.
You don’t know what the definition of closing a gap means. It means the gap is smaller than it was before, not that the gap has been fully bridged.
That gap between Jakob and Hocker at 3k was bigger last year than it is now.
Last year was not a perfect storm, it could be predicted if you don’t watch the race emotionally.
The only thing that would make many of us change our tune is to see Jakob 1) actually win a race in a kick over all of his top competitors and / or 2) stop looking like a sitting duck.
If Jakob PRs in shorter distances, I would still have to see it to believe it.
I'd say Jakob looked rather convincing in Lausanne last year. Hocker and Kessler were right behind him up to the 1350m mark, then he turned un the turbo. Beat Hocker with a 2.02 seconds margin, and Kessler with a 2.64 seconds margin. I would call that a kick
Stop it.
We are talking winning a championship final when everyone is peaking. Both Hocker and Kessler were drained at that meet and both slowed down tremendously on the last lap. Was a battle of attrition not a kick.
Jakob will never win an outdoor championship 1500m again. Yes, he will still win some diamond leagues, however, I think this year Hocker will even beat him in those.
Stay on topic. We’re talking about Jakob’s ability to win in a kick against top competition in a championship final. In the last such race, Jakob lost to 3 guys.
Jakob has routinely beaten most of those 3 guys.
Seems relevant to a discussion if its over for him.
Hope he captures the WR in the indoor mile next week
I hope he breaks the WR next week too, it’s still over for him in championships.
They aren’t catching up, strength-wise. None them will ever run 7:17.55 or challenge him in a 5000m. If Fisher and Hocker run a 3000m outdoors, it probably won’t be any faster than what they did yesterday. I don’t see Kerr, who turns 28 this year, running any better than his 8:01 2-mile from last year.
Last year was the perfect storm for him to finish 4th. It might turn out that the three guys that beat him, ran the races of their lives.
You don’t know what the definition of closing a gap means. It means the gap is smaller than it was before, not that the gap has been fully bridged.
That gap between Jakob and Hocker at 3k was bigger last year than it is now.
Last year was not a perfect storm, it could be predicted if you don’t watch the race emotionally.
You may recall he went out at 3:24 pace. It was either win or fail spectacularly at the end. he wasn’t racing for silver or bronze. So your point is pointless
I don’t recall that at all.
I recall him going out in 3:25.6 pace in a race that was won in 3:27.6. Not nearly what I would call redlining.
I also recall him only being .1 ahead of Kerr, and .4/.5 ahead of Hocker at 400m.
Maybe Hocker improved between his 8:05 and Oly win.
Your opinion is not buttressed by you insulting me.
Agree 100% — obviously when he ran 3:27 he could have also done a 7:2x 3000.
Also, the fact that there’s this huge bunch of really fast people may actually play into Jakob’s hands.
Clearly he’s no longer the top 1500 pick on these boards, even though in the past three championships there’s been three different winners, so no one has asserted themselves as the Top Dog. But if there’s more fast guys mixing it up up front, he’ll probably have to do less front running and can be more strategic. And make his break at the perfect moment, a la Tokyo…
Was waiting for someone to say this. Usually this is about an Ethiopian or Kenyan that rolls off a sub 12:40 performance — NOW Jakobs in trouble! Look at that time! He’s not. This happens every season. Grant Fisher is an extraordinary runner, but it was daylight between him and Jakob in the 5k last season. Yes, he’s much better now, but the very high number of people here who collectively agree Jakob can run a 12:30-12:35 whenever he wants… can Grant break the outdoor WR?
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Jakob needs to let go of the 1500m and focus on the 5k/10k. Literally holds the WR in the 3k as well.
There’s no race result that indicates he would be better at 10000m than the 1500m. With the new shoe technology, racing on the roads is about as fast as being on the track. From the perspective of possibly winning a medal in the Olympic 10000m, 27:27 is really slow.
Was waiting for someone to say this. Usually this is about an Ethiopian or Kenyan that rolls off a sub 12:40 performance — NOW Jakobs in trouble! Look at that time! He’s not. This happens every season. Grant Fisher is an extraordinary runner, but it was daylight between him and Jakob in the 5k last season. Yes, he’s much better now, but the very high number of people here who collectively agree Jakob can run a 12:30-12:35 whenever he wants… can Grant break the outdoor WR?
As it stands now, Jakob is 7 seconds ahead of Grant in a 1500m and only 5 seconds ahead of Grant in a 3000m. It should be obvious that Grant be closer than that over the next 2k.
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
I don't think you understand how much more difficult it gets to knock off every second at the sub-7:25 speeds. "He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors" is nonsense. 3 seconds might take 5-6 years of hard work IF everything goes perfectly on race day. He's already very close at the very top of his potential. He's been training for well over a decade.
Jakob is an all-time great, and will continue to be the guy on the circuit with now a little more competition there. We saw it last year at Pre. I still believe he’s going to be the fastest, but I can see Nuguse, Kerr and Hocker taking victories here and there like last year but maybe he wins half of them.
But in championships, it is extremely hard to win the way he does. He’s not done but the odds are stacked against gold medals this way. Just like they were for Tim in Tokyo.
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
I don't think you understand how much more difficult it gets to knock off every second at the sub-7:25 speeds. "He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors" is nonsense. 3 seconds might take 5-6 years of hard work IF everything goes perfectly on race day. He's already very close at the very top of his potential. He's been training for well over a decade.
Law of diminishing returns, my friend.
Hocker has been training for less than a decade. Jakob has been training for well over a decade.
Jakob is an all-time great, and will continue to be the guy on the circuit with now a little more competition there. We saw it last year at Pre. I still believe he’s going to be the fastest, but I can see Nuguse, Kerr and Hocker taking victories here and there like last year but maybe he wins half of them.
But in championships, it is extremely hard to win the way he does. He’s not done but the odds are stacked against gold medals this way. Just like they were for Tim in Tokyo.
Jakob is the straw that stirs the drink. He ran 7:17 in a year in which he had to overcome a significant injury that derailed his training for months. Yes, people are leveling up, but I predict so will Jakob. He’s going to break the 1500 wr this year and he’s going to FINALLY manage to front run to the 1500 world championship. This is the year his dreams become reality.
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
Uumm yeah Jakob hasn’t even raced this year yet... Yes sure a bunch of athletes have made some huge improvements in their times over the last few days but who’s to say Jakob won’t be making some similar improvements this year also. I would be waiting until Jakob has got at least a couple of races under his belt this year before making any predictions around world champs etc.
This^^ also, the guy who just out kicked the reigning 1500 champ in Millrose got destroyed by Jakob in the last 600 of the 5000 in Paris so just relax and let’s have fun and see where Jakob is at.