I find it interesting that 2 Aussie lads - Brett Robinson and Steve Monegetti - who are only 27.45 guys - have ran 59.50 and 60 flat respectively - yet all these 27 flat 10k Americans can’t break 60. They should be low 59….guess Aussies just do it better. Given this I expect Tiernan and Morgs to run 59.30 ish in this half.
I will be you 5 Australian dollars that neither of the two do.
I find it interesting that 2 Aussie lads - Brett Robinson and Steve Monegetti - who are only 27.45 guys - have ran 59.50 and 60 flat respectively - yet all these 27 flat 10k Americans can’t break 60. They should be low 59….guess Aussies just do it better. Given this I expect Tiernan and Morgs to run 59.30 ish in this half.
Monegetti was running marathons from the start of his track career. He ran his first marathon the same year he ran his first 10k. So I suspect his 10k pb is super soft as it was run while doing marathon specific training.
Clayton Young and Connor Mantz in some sense are the Aussie types. They moved to the marathon quickly for Americans. Mantz has the fastest 10k pb at 27:25, and with a 2:07:XX marathon, I think he's got a shot at dipping sub 60. But remember 59:43 is a bit faster than just dipping below 60. I think you need to be in 2:06 shape for an equivalent performance.
Rupp never really ran a serious half - he would likely have broken the record if he took the distance seriously during his prime.
I find it interesting that 2 Aussie lads - Brett Robinson and Steve Monegetti - who are only 27.45 guys - have ran 59.50 and 60 flat respectively - yet all these 27 flat 10k Americans can’t break 60. They should be low 59….guess Aussies just do it better. Given this I expect Tiernan and Morgs to run 59.30 ish in this half.
Monegetti was running marathons from the start of his track career. He ran his first marathon the same year he ran his first 10k. So I suspect his 10k pb is super soft as it was run while doing marathon specific training.
Clayton Young and Connor Mantz in some sense are the Aussie types. They moved to the marathon quickly for Americans. Mantz has the fastest 10k pb at 27:25, and with a 2:07:XX marathon, I think he's got a shot at dipping sub 60. But remember 59:43 is a bit faster than just dipping below 60. I think you need to be in 2:06 shape for an equivalent performance.
Rupp never really ran a serious half - he would likely have broken the record if he took the distance seriously during his prime.
Didn't Rupp run a 60:00 solo? Imagine him running in the loaded Houston half or the Valencia half. He probably runs close to 59 flat if not faster.
Monegetti was running marathons from the start of his track career. He ran his first marathon the same year he ran his first 10k. So I suspect his 10k pb is super soft as it was run while doing marathon specific training.
Clayton Young and Connor Mantz in some sense are the Aussie types. They moved to the marathon quickly for Americans. Mantz has the fastest 10k pb at 27:25, and with a 2:07:XX marathon, I think he's got a shot at dipping sub 60. But remember 59:43 is a bit faster than just dipping below 60. I think you need to be in 2:06 shape for an equivalent performance.
Rupp never really ran a serious half - he would likely have broken the record if he took the distance seriously during his prime.
Didn't Rupp run a 60:00 solo? Imagine him running in the loaded Houston half or the Valencia half. He probably runs close to 59 flat if not faster.
Didn't Rupp run a 60:00 solo? Imagine him running in the loaded Houston half or the Valencia half. He probably runs close to 59 flat if not faster.
Blah blah blah…then Hall would have run 58.
Hall's 59:43 half record and 2:06:17 in London are pretty equivalent performances, if anything the half time is stronger (his 2:04:58 in Boston was massively wind aided). I still think it takes a 2:06:XX level of fitness (from a marathon runner) to break this half record. Some of the Americans have an outside shot, but it will take a careers best performance.
Half marathon debuts are a total wild card. You can't predict a half marathon time from someone who has only done 10ks. Some can run like Gidey and others can blow up. Rupp never really went for the half American record with pacing/good conditions, so we will never know either way, its just speculation what he could have done, and therefore pretty irrelevant.
Pearson. Think he'll suprise. Intrigued Klecker v Mantz for American record great theater. Like to see how the comeback for Hawkins continues. Pat Tiernan a wild card. Lot of former NCAA champs here with McDonald, Tiernan, Mantz, Young at 10K etc
Mantz & Young are on a level above Klecker. No disrespect to Klecker, he is very good, but those 2 have continually shown they are on a level above everyone else in the US, Klecker included.
Yimer can run under 59s. Kotut probably could too, he just ran 2:03:22. Don't know what spring Marathon he'll be running though. Ditto Geay though his 2024 was rough.
Mantz and the debutantes McDonald/Klecker/Dever likely all targeting mid-59s, should be exciting.
I would be pleasantly shocked if Dever ran under 60. He just seems beneath that level, possibly mid-60 but no quicker. Same for McDonald, who I think will run 61:xx, unless he's levelled up over the winter.
Pearson. Think he'll suprise. Intrigued Klecker v Mantz for American record great theater. Like to see how the comeback for Hawkins continues. Pat Tiernan a wild card. Lot of former NCAA champs here with McDonald, Tiernan, Mantz, Young at 10K etc
Mantz & Young are on a level above Klecker. No disrespect to Klecker, he is very good, but those 2 have continually shown they are on a level above everyone else in the US, Klecker included.
Not over 10k, Klecker has been consistently top-3 in the US. And I would argue that in it's physical demands, the HM is closer to the 10k than the marathon. I think Klecker will be 10+ seconds clear of Mantz and Young. Young, in particular, doesn't have the wheels that Klecker has and that matters a lot more in the HM.
Kleckers a donkey, washed on track and same old lack of pace will show here. Just cos hes ran a few good time trials in his life means nothing when hes got to be out for an extra 48 minutes on the roads with no-one to pace him round
Kleckers a donkey, washed on track and same old lack of pace will show here. Just cos hes ran a few good time trials in his life means nothing when hes got to be out for an extra 48 minutes on the roads with no-one to pace him round
Kleckers a donkey, washed on track and same old lack of pace will show here. Just cos hes ran a few good time trials in his life means nothing when hes got to be out for an extra 48 minutes on the roads with no-one to pace him round
Donkeys aren't slow and they are tougher than nails. I want to see what the donkey can do.
Monegetti was running marathons from the start of his track career. He ran his first marathon the same year he ran his first 10k. So I suspect his 10k pb is super soft as it was run while doing marathon specific training.
Clayton Young and Connor Mantz in some sense are the Aussie types. They moved to the marathon quickly for Americans. Mantz has the fastest 10k pb at 27:25, and with a 2:07:XX marathon, I think he's got a shot at dipping sub 60. But remember 59:43 is a bit faster than just dipping below 60. I think you need to be in 2:06 shape for an equivalent performance.
Rupp never really ran a serious half - he would likely have broken the record if he took the distance seriously during his prime.
Didn't Rupp run a 60:00 solo? Imagine him running in the loaded Houston half or the Valencia half. He probably runs close to 59 flat if not faster.
I would be pleasantly shocked if Dever ran under 60. He just seems beneath that level, possibly mid-60 but no quicker. Same for McDonald, who I think will run 61:xx, unless he's levelled up over the winter.
Realized I was thinking of Atkin not Dever. I’d agree for Dever but not really McDonald unless the injury affects him.
I would be pleasantly shocked if Dever ran under 60. He just seems beneath that level, possibly mid-60 but no quicker. Same for McDonald, who I think will run 61:xx, unless he's levelled up over the winter.
Realized I was thinking of Atkin not Dever. I’d agree for Dever but not really McDonald unless the injury affects him.
Dever has better PBs for both 5k and 10k than McDonald. They were around the same level last year. Who the hell knows what Atkin could do in the HM. Maybe 59, highly likely he'd DNF. I'll look out for his usual tear-up on the BU track this year before he fails to finish a race outdoors later in the season
Erika Kemp is an interesting marathon debut. Morgan McDonald is back to making some YouTube videos & seems to have had a minor injury scare in his build-up. Obviously dk how much that really affects his entire build-up. Pearson will be fun to watch. He probably has a hard bike or swim after this.
Weather will be important to monitor. Feel like Houston has gone a touch hot/humid a fair amount in recent years.
Temperature looks ideal for next Sunday morning - high 40s/low 50s.
But it could be windy.
Yup, they're calling for winds of 8 to 9 mph from due North. On the half marathon course, miles 8.5 to 11 are headed due north - directly into the wind. Figure some strategic elite drafting to take place for those miles.
I'm doing the Marathon and looking forward to the cool temps and lower humidity (I'm so slow these days the wind won't be a factor for me). Ha! FYI, miles 11.5 to 18 of the marathon course are in the northern direction.
Temperature looks ideal for next Sunday morning - high 40s/low 50s.
But it could be windy.
Yup, they're calling for winds of 8 to 9 mph from due North. On the half marathon course, miles 8.5 to 11 are headed due north - directly into the wind. Figure some strategic elite drafting to take place for those miles.
I'm doing the Marathon and looking forward to the cool temps and lower humidity (I'm so slow these days the wind won't be a factor for me). Ha! FYI, miles 11.5 to 18 of the marathon course are in the northern direction.
Temps will be ideal. Mid 40s and holding steady throughout the morning. Cloudy and no sun. Winds may be a big challenge depending on the timing of the cold front. Could be steady 10-15 mph from the north with gusts in the 20-25 mph range. If the front pushes through a bit earlier on Saturday, winds might not be as bad Sunday morning.
I don't think the men will be able to pull of the AR with that headwind. Probably will get a few guys in the 60 flat range.
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