To be real, if Jesuit had their hands on Elias Thronson (#2 Freshman in state- Davis high), they would be unstoppable. Thronson quite literally was from the same Jesuit feeder middle school.
Imma be real- everything from the guy’s individual side is so cooked (This is not including the obvious individuals from Jesuit and Matilda Torres, who are def going to nxn). Will make a girls one, at some point.
Top tier:
Maximo Zavaleta (MLK), Conor Lott (Clovis North), Oliver Hunter (Dana Hills), Olly O’Connor (Viewpoint), Aidan Antonio (Woodbridge).
Mid Tier:
Blake Bay (Fresno Christian) and Alijah Murillo (Branham)
On the come up:
Braulio Castillo (West Ranch), Andres Lomeli (Kimball), Noel Huato (Del Oro), Matteus Dos Santos and Yohan Anderson (San Clemente), Elias Thronson (Davis), Mario Montoya (Redondo Union), Henry Hauser (Menlo), Yuvel Goldberg (Mountain View), Clark Gregory and Caden Ehrhorn (Campolindo).
Ayala can lowk benefit from a transfer, such as freshman Gavin De La Fuente (Chino Hills). De La Fuente ran 16:00 at Woodward and sub 15 at Woodbridge.
D4: JSerra. Took second two years in a row but this time I think they can pull off the title after returning 5 guys and most of the team looking to be seniors.
D4 looks pretty desolate after this year aside from Jserra.
Palos Verdes could maybe challenge if they can bring up a good 5th runner. Harvard Westlake returns 6 guys but they are way back.
Don't think any other team has even 3 guys left.
For the JSerra boys, next year will likely be the last chance to win state at this rate. They have a great junior class, but they only have one person in the frosh/soph class who broke 20 in 3 miles
Imma be real- everything from the guy’s individual side is so cooked (This is not including the obvious individuals from Jesuit and Matilda Torres, who are def going to nxn). Will make a girls one, at some point.
Top tier:
Maximo Zavaleta (MLK), Conor Lott (Clovis North), Oliver Hunter (Dana Hills), Olly O’Connor (Viewpoint), Aidan Antonio (Woodbridge).
Mid Tier:
Blake Bay (Fresno Christian) and Alijah Murillo (Branham)
On the come up:
Braulio Castillo (West Ranch), Andres Lomeli (Kimball), Noel Huato (Del Oro), Matteus Dos Santos and Yohan Anderson (San Clemente), Elias Thronson (Davis), Mario Montoya (Redondo Union), Henry Hauser (Menlo), Yuvel Goldberg (Mountain View), Clark Gregory and Caden Ehrhorn (Campolindo).
there will be breakouts but most of it will come from the current freshman and sophmore classes. I am expecting some big new names from class of 2028 and 2027
Will any boys or girls teams from D3, D4 or D5 have a chance to make NXN besides JSerra girls?
On the boys:
Campolindo has a shot in D3 with reasonable improvements from their returners.
JSerra will probably win D4, but won't be close to sniffing NXN in the merge barring a miracle.
D5 will return to being a wasteland without Menlo's low sticks.
Everyone else is cooked. It'll be the D1/D2 show next year for NXN qualification
On the girls side:
I don't think anyone else will even come close besides JSerra. D3-D5 times were already bad this year compared to usual and next year they will be bad.
California has guys come out of nowhere their senior years and surprise people. Here are some names and I looked at their Jr year state meet PR and then what they ran at state this year.
Kushen 15:20 to 14:44
Lesher 15:42 to 14:43
Cook 15:27 to 14:54
Miller 15:37 (clovis) to 14:51
Douglass 15:19 to 14:58
Daillak 15:32 to 14:53 (clovis)
I feel like the class of 2026 is going to have a lot of improvements like this so I really see no reason to freak out about individual talent. I agree there are less super stars who had a monster JR season like Noonan/Holman/EFY etc. but that was an exceptional class. California is too deep with talent and guys to not turnover individual talent year after year. Excluding the Jesuit/Torres boys I agree Zavaleta/Lott are probably the top guys in the class but I am expecting this class to have a lot of guys pop some times on the track just like a lot of those names I listed above did in their JR years.
but the top california talent this year were - noonan(5th), turk(18th), fitchen young (34rd) and they were all sub 15 guys their junior year with noonan down at 14:35
I mean to be fair, just going by the previous track season, Dalliak and Cook were kind of expected to have a break out season. Dalliak ran sub 9 at the state meet- already kind of indicating he was going to go crazy this season. Same with Cook, brodie ran 4:08 in CCS (huge improvement from barely going sub 4:20 CCS his sophomore year). They may have not been on everyone’s radar up until this season, but it was expected to happen.
Okay sure you can say that this year but how about last year.
Josh Bell 9th at NxN 15:20 to 14:50
Jason Parra 8th at NxN 15:13 to 14:56
Lucas Cohen 24th at NxN 15:46 to 14:45
There is also something called having an off day. Abbott who ran 15:04 this year lost to Lesher and Kushen by 20 seconds at state but ended up finishing in 53rd ahead of both of them. If those guys ran how they were supposed to they would have probably been in the top 30. All I am saying is give this class of 2026 some time. We should not write them off yet.
To be real, if Jesuit had their hands on Elias Thronson (#2 Freshman in state- Davis high), they would be unstoppable. Thronson quite literally was from the same Jesuit feeder middle school.
They don't your need any help recruiting runners from other schools. They get transfers every year.
Okay sure you can say that this year but how about last year.
Josh Bell 9th at NxN 15:20 to 14:50
Jason Parra 8th at NxN 15:13 to 14:56
Lucas Cohen 24th at NxN 15:46 to 14:45
There is also something called having an off day. Abbott who ran 15:04 this year lost to Lesher and Kushen by 20 seconds at state but ended up finishing in 53rd ahead of both of them. If those guys ran how they were supposed to they would have probably been in the top 30. All I am saying is give this class of 2026 some time. We should not write them off yet.
when evaluating on which runners will improve most, then be able to be competitive at the collegiate level. (I wonder if college coaches look at talent the same way I do)
Mental Toughness.
Talent.
For mental toughness, I use 3 criterias: Consistency, how humble/thankful they are in interviews and how often they lead races. Mental toughness is not only important for racing but discipline and hard work.
For talent, it is less very relevant for improvement on the high school level. I use criteria: unknown school, less physically developed and how many years they have been competitively running. Talent often comes from unexpected improvements after being consistent. Think of: Cooper Teare, Luis Grijalva
Parra and Bell were very mental tough and talented.
JSerra is pretty shakey after last few years performance, although they still return a great scoring roster for the next year. If they still had Summer Wilson I think they would have been dominant this year.
An on point Corona or Ventura with True not injured could have maybe sniped that 3rd NXN spot this year.
Ventura had other problems besides True. Sax wasn't close to her pervious performances, Nuckols looks to have faded at the end of the season and rest of the team either flatlined or was missing at the end. A healthy True would not have been enough for them.
Sophia Grant was originally going to transfer to Ventura this year but she ended up deciding to stay at Newbury Park.
Based on what happened to Ventura at the state meet, even if she transferred in and stuck with Ventura’s #2, they still wouldn’t have gotten top 4 in the merge
Can someone with some authority in CIF make sure that they DONT sell our state meet coverage? The past two years they sold it, then nobody bought it, so NO COVERAGE. Who made this decision the past two years?
Can someone with some authority in CIF make sure that they DONT sell our state meet coverage? The past two years they sold it, then nobody bought it, so NO COVERAGE. Who made this decision the past two years?
I will work on this.
Follow up, since I'm unfamiliar with how the other big meets in CA have provided coverage......Was there a charge for coverage at Woodbridge or at Clovis? If so, why did nobody bid on the state meet?
I actually am in a position to work on this, but need as much background info as possible so I don't go in blind.
To be real, if Jesuit had their hands on Elias Thronson (#2 Freshman in state- Davis high), they would be unstoppable. Thronson quite literally was from the same Jesuit feeder middle school.
They don't your need any help recruiting runners from other schools. They get transfers every year.
And some people who make big jumps
Like Jakary going from 18:00 to 15s at Clovis in a year
And first year runner Higgins going 15:37 at state in 2023