I think a lot of people like to overestimate the advantage that Canadians might gain from cold, snowy weather.
I think most will run fine, but I also predict a number of real blowups along the lines of Jepkurui in 2022. Mid 30s with wet feet will affect some in a bad way.
Sure, but it won’t correlate directly with the climates of where the athletes were raised.
John Anderson may be smart to bring Parker Valby to the ESPNU broadcast as a paid New Balance promotion.
Is occasional message board poster "Tuffy" actually Suzie Tuffey of NC State who won XC Nats in 1985 on a day with 33F temp and 15 mph winds? Might be cool to hear her commentary in the booth.
In 2022, Hertenstein of CO was 16th at 5k, then threw down a monster kick to place 5th. If anyone does the same on Sat, could it be...Ayyildiz (4:09/15:15)?
I think most will run fine, but I also predict a number of real blowups along the lines of Jepkurui in 2022. Mid 30s with wet feet will affect some in a bad way.
Sure, but it won’t correlate directly with the climates of where the athletes were raised.
I agree, and I should have worded my post better so it could not be interpreted that way. So my fault.
btw no doubt most know, but one factor for the M race is a good portion of the course gets run thru 4 times, and some parts 5 or 6 (the hill up toward 9K) between both races so by the last "lap" conditions may suffer a lot.
That looks like a wee bit more snow than just a bit of snow. Going out on a limb here predicting no one runs under Valby’s time. 😝
We might even see some unexpected upsets.
Per weather forecast, snow ending by 11pm tonight (Thu) then cloudy and in the high-30s/low-40s through race day. Thus, snow probably will have melted by race time Saturday morning, leaving parts of the course a bit mushy.
Maybe Kosgei's 18:59.1/6k CR will survive, but fully expecting several to be under Valby's 19:17.2 time from last year. Seems like every high quality women's xc race this year has been won in sub-19:20.
Note: Dani Jones/CO won 2018 NCAAs @ Zimmer in 19:42.8. Times have changed.
And, Morgan McDonald's 29:08.3/10k CR from the 2018 NCAA race should be obliterated.
Nice to have the pertinent (interesting) course record times collected all together in one post. I’ve wondered what Valby would have run on, for instance, the Terra Haute course, which seemed to be used multiple times before I followed the sport. It’s kind of too bad that they don’t keep just one championship course so that valid comparisons, using the same course, can be made down through the years.
Per weather forecast, snow ending by 11pm tonight (Thu) then cloudy and in the high-30s/low-40s through race day. Thus, snow probably will have melted by race time Saturday morning, leaving parts of the course a bit mushy.
Maybe Kosgei's 18:59.1/6k CR will survive, but fully expecting several to be under Valby's 19:17.2 time from last year. Seems like every high quality women's xc race this year has been won in sub-19:20.
Note: Dani Jones/CO won 2018 NCAAs @ Zimmer in 19:42.8. Times have changed.
And, Morgan McDonald's 29:08.3/10k CR from the 2018 NCAA race should be obliterated.
Nice to have the pertinent (interesting) course record times collected all together in one post. I’ve wondered what Valby would have run on, for instance, the Terra Haute course, which seemed to be used multiple times before I followed the sport. It’s kind of too bad that they don’t keep just one championship course so that valid comparisons, using the same course, can be made down through the years.
The LAACTIC algorithm did a pretty good job of projecting Div I female runners’ 5k times last year. So it’s interesting that even though some fast times have already been run this season, Lemngole, currently pegged at 15:07 by the algorithm, is still significantly slower than Valby’s sub-15 pegging last year.
Nice to have the pertinent (interesting) course record times collected all together in one post. I’ve wondered what Valby would have run on, for instance, the Terra Haute course, which seemed to be used multiple times before I followed the sport. It’s kind of too bad that they don’t keep just one championship course so that valid comparisons, using the same course, can be made down through the years.
The LAACTIC algorithm did a pretty good job of projecting Div I female runners’ 5k times last year. So it’s interesting that even though some fast times have already been run this season, Lemngole, currently pegged at 15:07 by the algorithm, is still significantly slower than Valby’s sub-15 pegging last year.
One of a few LAACTIC discussions from last season:
Nice to have the pertinent (interesting) course record times collected all together in one post. I’ve wondered what Valby would have run on, for instance, the Terra Haute course, which seemed to be used multiple times before I followed the sport. It’s kind of too bad that they don’t keep just one championship course so that valid comparisons, using the same course, can be made down through the years.
XC times really shouldn’t be compared year-to-year because times don’t matter in XC. I like that it’s a rotating course. It was too much when it was held at Terre Haute so often.
Nice to have the pertinent (interesting) course record times collected all together in one post. I’ve wondered what Valby would have run on, for instance, the Terra Haute course, which seemed to be used multiple times before I followed the sport. It’s kind of too bad that they don’t keep just one championship course so that valid comparisons, using the same course, can be made down through the years.
XC times really shouldn’t be compared year-to-year because times don’t matter in XC. I like that it’s a rotating course. It was too much when it was held at Terre Haute so often.
I didn’t include “except for variable climatic conditions” (which should be understood), the same (unchanged) course would give us at least something (besides the decent LAACTIC algorithm) to make year-to-year comparisons of athletes. But it is understandable that fan (and coaches) fatigue might build up going to the same place year-after-year.
Per weather forecast, snow ending by 11pm tonight (Thu) then cloudy and in the high-30s/low-40s through race day. Thus, snow probably will have melted by race time Saturday morning, leaving parts of the course a bit mushy.
Maybe Kosgei's 18:59.1/6k CR will survive, but fully expecting several to be under Valby's 19:17.2 time from last year. Seems like every high quality women's xc race this year has been won in sub-19:20.
Note: Dani Jones/CO won 2018 NCAAs @ Zimmer in 19:42.8. Times have changed.
And, Morgan McDonald's 29:08.3/10k CR from the 2018 NCAA race should be obliterated.
Nice to have the pertinent (interesting) course record times collected all together in one post. I’ve wondered what Valby would have run on, for instance, the Terra Haute course, which seemed to be used multiple times before I followed the sport. It’s kind of too bad that they don’t keep just one championship course so that valid comparisons, using the same course, can be made down through the years.
La Verne Gibson/IN State was used for several consecutive years following it's opening in 1999 or thereabouts.
Since, other purpose-built xc courses such as Apalachee Park/FL State, Thomas Zimmer/WI, Greiner Family/Ok State, Panorama Farms/VA, and next year Gans Creek/MO have came into existence. So, since those schools want NCAAs, makes sense to use them.
Now, the western half of the US needs a purpose built xc course (Crystal Springs is too small, not to mention no way college coaches would allow their runners on that course, much less the local residents). At least there should be a low-altitude golf course somewhere in AZ, CA, OR, WA, or ID that would be conducive to and willing to host it.
Sub 20:00 times at Zimmer for W since 2018 - perhaps of limited value Pamela Kosgei New Mexico 18:59.1 2024 Pre Nats Hilda Olemomoi Florida 19:02.9 2024 Pre Nats Caroline Jeptanui Tulane 19:05.4 2024 Pre Nats Ceili McCabe West Virginia 19:10.8 2024 Pre Nats Chloe Thomas Connecticut 19:11.8 2024 Pre Nats Grace Hartman NC State 19:15.2 2024 Pre Nats Parker Valby Florida 19:17.2 2023 Nuttycombe Paityn Noe Arkansas 19:19.5 2024 Pre Nats Katelyn Tuohy NC State 19:29.5 2023 Nuttycombe Hannah Gapes NC State 19:31.0 2024 Pre Nats Alicia Monson Wisconsin 19:33.3 2018 Nuttycombe Lexy Halladay-Lowry BYU 19:33.4 2024 Pre Nats Weini Kelati New Mexico 19:35.9 2018 Nuttycombe Joy Naukot West Virginia 19:37.4 2024 Pre Nats Ali Weimer Minnesota 19:38.5 2024 Pre Nats Siona Chisholm Notre Dame 19:38.8 2024 Pre Nats Ednah Kurgat New Mexico 19:38.8 2018 Nuttycombe Alicia Monson Wisconsin 19:39.3 2019 Nuttycombe Dani Jones Colorado 19:39.6 2018 Nuttycombe Allie Ostrander Boise State 19:40.4 2018 Nuttycombe Sophia Kennedy Stanford 19:41.7 2024 Pre Nats Dani Jones Colorado 19:42.8 2018 Nationals Katelyn Tuohy NC State 19:44.3 2022 Nuttycombe Makena Morley Colorado 19:45.2 2018 Nuttycombe Weini Kelati New Mexico 19:45.3 2018 Nationals Carmen Alder BYU 19:48.6 2024 Pre Nats Weini Kelati New Mexico 19:48.6 2019 Nuttycombe Kelsey Chmiel NC State 19:49.4 2022 Nuttycombe Emily Covert Notre Dame 19:49.5 2024 Pre Nats Jessica Hull Oregon 19:50.4 2018 Nationals Chloe Foerster Washington 19:50.6 2024 Pre Nats Mercy Kinyanjui Toledo 19:51.0 2024 Pre Nats Mia Cochran Arkansas 19:51.8 2024 Pre Nats Taylor Werner Arkansas 19:52.2 2019 Nuttycombe Kelsey Chmiel NC State 19:52.9 2023 Nuttycombe Aliandrea Upshaw Northern Arizona 19:53.6 2024 Pre Nats Elise Stearns Northern Arizona 19:54.6 2023 Nuttycombe Jenna Hutchins BYU 19:54.7 2024 Pre Nats Charlotte Prouse New Mexico 19:55.0 2018 Nuttycombe Olivia Markezich Notre Dame 19:55.0 2023 Great Lakes Regional Alicia Monson Wisconsin 19:55.2 2018 Nationals Katrina Robinson Arkansas 19:55.3 2018 Nuttycombe Fiona O'Keeffe Stanford 19:55.4 2019 Nuttycombe Ednah Kurgat New Mexico 19:55.8 2018 Nationals Maelle Porcher Iowa State 19:55.8 2024 Pre Nats Kaylee Mitchell Oregon State 19:56.6 2023 Nuttycombe Carly Wilkes Furman 19:56.7 2024 Pre Nats Allie Ostrander Boise State 19:56.9 2018 Nationals Ceili McCabe West Virginia 19:57.4 2021 Nuttycombe Elise Stearns Northern Arizona 19:57.5 2022 Nuttycombe Zofia Dudek Stanford 19:57.7 2024 Pre Nats Erica Birk BYU 19:58.1 2018 Nationals Emily Venters Colorado 19:58.2 2018 Nuttycombe Clare O'Brien Boise State 19:58.4 2018 Nuttycombe Nicole Hutchinson Villanova 19:58.9 2018 Nuttycombe Maia Ramsden Harvard 19:59.1 2023 Nuttycombe Chloe Scrimgeour Georgetown 19:59.2 2023 Nuttycombe Bieke Schipperen Florida State 19:59.3 2024 Pre Nats Katie Izzo Arkansas 19:59.4 2019 Nuttycombe Savannah Roark Syracuse 19:59.5 2024 Pre Nats Alex Carlson Northern Arizona 19:59.6 2024 Pre Nats
Thanks for that; I find it interesting. But besides variability in course conditions and weather, it is understood another important variable in those times is when in the season they were run (whether or not at their Championship peak fitness.)
For instance…Monson who was very familiar with the course, ran 22 seconds slower at the 2018 Championship in those conditions, than she had earlier in the season at Nuttycombe.
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