Ypm wrote:
This discussion doesn't make much sense to me as you're asking if the mile was contested over the 1500m, would the mile record have fallen by now....Yet you're forgetting that the 1500m HAS been contested as the standard for so many years now and that record is still standing. So no El G's 3:43.13 would not have been broken by now. Maybe Lagat, Kiprop or Jakob would have gotten close to breaking it, but they would have been off my about .2 or so. Conversions don't matter, I'm just looking at actual race data where many people have tried to break his 1500 record and all have failed. It would have been the same for the mile; the record is just too good.
I do, however, believe both of these records will be broken in the next 5 years.
It’s entirely reasonable and probably correct that El G would still be the mile WR holder, but the WR wouldn’t be 3:43.13. Your post seems to assume that 3:26.00 and 3:43.13 are of identical quality since the same man ran both times. Taken to the extreme you’d be assuming that Lagat was only good for 3:47, Makhloufi 3:52, Farah 3:56, etc.
For decades, athletes have made more concerted attempts at the 1500 than the mile; for decades most of the world has considered the 1500 WR the more prestigious, serious target. Therefore most elites have 1500 PBs that are stronger than their mile PB.
Even if you don’t believe anyone but El G would have run faster than 3:43.13, it’s not on account of your logic exactly.
I think most likely, El G would have run ~3:42.5 and Jakob would have run ~3:43.0 by now. (3:43.00 is 3:27.85 1500 pace…plenty fast). I’m not sure there would be any men between them on the all time list, but Lagat on the day he ran 3:26.34 would have had a chance (the only other guy between them at 1500 is Asbel Kiprop, just 0.04 faster than Jakob, and the extra distance to the mile strongly favors Jakob).