I suppose I agree with people who say we don't truly know what the limits of human running performance are. To an extent, anyway (I don't think we'll ever see, for example, a marathon run in under an hour). But I also feel that when an individual runner has been around for a while. and they are a physically mature adult (let's say, 30 years old), you get a fairly clear picture of what their ability range is, and what their absolute top level might be. Granted, being around for a while already, they've probably already had some "perfect days" when the lead-in was perfect, the weather was great, etc., but things could always get slightly better, right?
So let's look at Ruth Chepngetich's marathon yearly bests since 2017. Try to temporarily forget what you know, and read only up until the end of 2023: what would you estimate her absolute perfect result might be?
2017 2:22:36 Istanbul (TUR) 12 NOV 2017
2018 2:18:35 Istanbul (TUR) 11 NOV 2018
2019 2:17:08 Dubai (UAE) 25 JAN 2019
2020 2:22:05 London (GBR) 04 OCT 2020
2021 2:22:31 Chicago, IL (USA) 10 OCT 2021
2022 2:14:18 Chicago, IL (USA) 09 OCT 2022
2023 2:15:37 Chicago, IL (USA) 08 OCT 2023
2024 2:09:56 Chicago, IL (USA) 13 OCT 2024