2025 is unlikely as Jesuit returns almost everyone from their 2024 squad and CDA will be arguably faster by average time than they were in 2024.
2026 Crater and Jesuit should both be strong. CDA will have the best lineup yet with Carr, Henry, Morgenstern, Huele, and Howard - a possible top 3 team at NXN.
2025 is unlikely as Jesuit returns almost everyone from their 2024 squad and CDA will be arguably faster by average time than they were in 2024.
2026 Crater and Jesuit should both be strong. CDA will have the best lineup yet with Carr, Henry, Morgenstern, Huele, and Howard - a possible top 3 team at NXN.
Rocky might have a chance in 2027
Jesuit will be strong in 2026? They will have 5 seniors in their top 7 in 2025 so they will graduate 5 guys
2025 is unlikely as Jesuit returns almost everyone from their 2024 squad and CDA will be arguably faster by average time than they were in 2024.
2026 Crater and Jesuit should both be strong. CDA will have the best lineup yet with Carr, Henry, Morgenstern, Huele, and Howard - a possible top 3 team at NXN.
Rocky might have a chance in 2027
Jesuit will be strong in 2026? They will have 5 seniors in their top 7 in 2025 so they will graduate 5 guys
You are correct, next year Jesuit might be the team to beat at NXN with CDA the closest but Jesuit has a good pipeline coming in and still think they have a top 4 performance at NXR. CDA will have their best team in 2026 and Crater will be solid along with potentially some WA schools. I just don't see Rocky getting into the top 2 at NXR the next couple of years.
The Idaho thread says Culpepper had mono earlier this year. He ran 10:04 at Simplot, but then he didn't race until April 10th, so he must have gotten during late February/early March. Eagle's fastest 3200 this outdoor season is 9:33 and that boy was their #3 at the state meet.
He ran 17:22… it’s a big jump but don’t over exaggerate it.
I consider 17:20-17:59 "mid to high 17's"
17:57, 18:36, 17:51, 17:25, 17:22, 18:26, 17:34, 17:40 + a 10:27 3200 for HOKA.
He averaged 17:51 last season.
Tiger Grizz is infamously slow and the discovery park course was sloppy and runners ran way slower across the board. You’re still overstating it. He was a 17:22-17:34 boy at the end of the season normal season on normal courses.
He ran 17:22… it’s a big jump but don’t over exaggerate it.
I consider 17:20-17:59 "mid to high 17's"
17:57, 18:36, 17:51, 17:25, 17:22, 18:26, 17:34, 17:40 + a 10:27 3200 for HOKA.
He averaged 17:51 last season.
This is the kind of thing that makes people dislike the Rocky fans. You don't say that a kid is in a range if that's where they averaged over the course of the season. You say where they actually ended up. It's a continuation of the idea that Jeff Howard can turn anyone into a possible contributor. Jonah Bennion was a top 10 freshman in the valley during cross country and was a top 10 freshman coming into the cross country season, and he was a 17:20-ish kid.
The freshman that ran faster at the district meet went 4:37/9:57, 4:47 (but race in a limited fashion), 4:45/10:09, 4:43/10:10, 4:39/9:58, and 4:43/9:58. He's gone 4:45/9:53. It's clearly better than 3 of those other boys, but right in the realm of the other three. He was legitimately very good during cross country and is legitimately very good now.
It looks like they get 0 high quality 8th graders coming in for the guys. They have 4:52 and 4:57 freshmen, then it drops off to 5:17.
Their sophomore class has run 4:35, 4:42, 4:46, and 4:49, but those guys ran 4:36 last year, 4:50 last year, 4:48 as an 8th grader, and 4:53 last year, so it's not like they are getting a ton better.
They also have a 17:31 5k XC freshman and a couple of more just over 18:00, but none of those guys are running track this year. Actually the 17:31 guy is on the track roster but he hasn’t raced yet
Don't look now, but Rocky has 9:27, 9:52, 9:53, 9:57, and 10:15 returning. They will be more relevant than I thought they were going to be.
All of those marks are from Boise, as well. Those might be worth 5-10 seconds better in Portland.
I saw in the NXN 2025 thread that they are getting a 9:49 transfer who will be a senior
There’s also a 9:20 transfer coming in but it’s not clear what school they are ending up at. If they end up at Rocky, they have to be one of only a few favorites.
Jesuit will be strong in 2026? They will have 5 seniors in their top 7 in 2025 so they will graduate 5 guys
You are correct, next year Jesuit might be the team to beat at NXN with CDA the closest but Jesuit has a good pipeline coming in and still think they have a top 4 performance at NXR. CDA will have their best team in 2026 and Crater will be solid along with potentially some WA schools. I just don't see Rocky getting into the top 2 at NXR the next couple of years.
Jesuit is a team to beat at NATIONALS?
Nah, I’d go with Niwot (very Newbury Park-esque team).
It looks like they get 0 high quality 8th graders coming in for the guys. They have 4:52 and 4:57 freshmen, then it drops off to 5:17.
Their sophomore class has run 4:35, 4:42, 4:46, and 4:49, but those guys ran 4:36 last year, 4:50 last year, 4:48 as an 8th grader, and 4:53 last year, so it's not like they are getting a ton better.
Based on the current roster on Milesplit, they have only one incoming freshman boy who went under 6 minutes in the 1600 (of the 1600 times that I can find). They have 8 freshman boys listed on there (some of them have no 1600 times of track times at all listed on milesplit). The milesplit roster doesn’t include Maybury so this roster likely not up to date yet. And of course, people can develop over time
It looks like they get 0 high quality 8th graders coming in for the guys. They have 4:52 and 4:57 freshmen, then it drops off to 5:17.
Their sophomore class has run 4:35, 4:42, 4:46, and 4:49, but those guys ran 4:36 last year, 4:50 last year, 4:48 as an 8th grader, and 4:53 last year, so it's not like they are getting a ton better.
Based on the current roster on Milesplit, they have only one incoming freshman boy who went under 6 minutes in the 1600 (of the 1600 times that I can find). They have 8 freshman boys listed on there (some of them have no 1600 times of track times at all listed on milesplit). The milesplit roster doesn’t include Maybury so this roster likely not up to date yet. And of course, people can develop over time
You know that Rocky has a good freshman and you are baiting.
Kent Bailey (ran for South Nampa Middle School) is attending Rocky from outside of Rocky boundaries. He should be attending Skyview but is attending Rocky Mountain, which is 15 miles away. He ran 4:35.99 for 1600m at Nike Outdoor Nationals.
You know that Rocky has a good freshman and you are baiting.
Kent Bailey (ran for South Nampa Middle School) is attending Rocky from outside of Rocky boundaries. He should be attending Skyview but is attending Rocky Mountain, which is 15 miles away. He ran 4:35.99 for 1600m at Nike Outdoor Nationals.
He wasn’t listed on the milesplit roster but thanks
You know that Rocky has a good freshman and you are baiting.
Kent Bailey (ran for South Nampa Middle School) is attending Rocky from outside of Rocky boundaries. He should be attending Skyview but is attending Rocky Mountain, which is 15 miles away. He ran 4:35.99 for 1600m at Nike Outdoor Nationals.
He wasn’t listed on the milesplit roster but thanks
It looks like they get 0 high quality 8th graders coming in for the guys. They have 4:52 and 4:57 freshmen, then it drops off to 5:17.
Their sophomore class has run 4:35, 4:42, 4:46, and 4:49, but those guys ran 4:36 last year, 4:50 last year, 4:48 as an 8th grader, and 4:53 last year, so it's not like they are getting a ton better.
Based on the current roster on Milesplit, they have only one incoming freshman boy who went under 6 minutes in the 1600 (of the 1600 times that I can find). They have 8 freshman boys listed on there (some of them have no 1600 times of track times at all listed on milesplit). The milesplit roster doesn’t include Maybury so this roster likely not up to date yet. And of course, people can develop over time
In all reality, Rocky is now one of four Idaho teams that looks like they are doing a good job of developing talent and depth instead of just one. Previously, they had to contend with just Crater and Jesuit, now Washington is rising again and you get the odd Montana school.
Yes, they may qualify, but they are not consistently the best team in Idaho and barring getting transfers (they got a huge senior transfer this year and a good freshman- recruiting?!) they look like they will struggle to consistently be the best team in their district.