Oddly, that advice was great two years ago, but times are unfortunately changing, the roster limits coming next fall to most D1 schools are going to limit spots. You will see a lot of schools filling limited spots earlier in the process with little flexibility once they fill their spots. How many mid level kids in 2025 have struggled to find a D1 spot that was the top of their list this year? it won’t get easier in the future with transfers, internationals, potential 5th year of eligibility…
Yes, it’s verbal commits and kids can back out, track/XC is about to become a lot more like soccer/softball etc… with early commits. you see a lot of big schools getting 2026 commitments, they aren’t going to have spots and the next level schools will fill up and so on down the line.
There will be more kids developing and transferring up if that is their goal in the future, but finding a good initial fit athletically and academically should be everyone’s priority so you find a place you want to be and starting earlier is going to become the new normal.
Remember, 10-15 years ago before early signing in Nov. started a lot of kids did visits in Jan/Feb. and made decisions in Feb. or later. Then it shifted earlier for Nov. signing with schools and kids wanting to make decisions before championship XC season started their senior year. This will be a new recalibration to decisions being more common in Junior spring/summer before senior year. It’s not great for late developing kids or borderline kids that used to be able to get a spot at a top program as a developmental kid, it might suck, but it is what it is…