There was a rumor Hicham El Guerrouj collapsed and nearly died after a race, his blood was so thick. He collapsed after his world record 1500.
I've never heard that before, but Morceli was treated in hospital for anemia. His body had likely been left unable to produce enough red blood cells naturally. He probably came off EPO after he won his Olympic gold, or throttled back, which is why he declined so quickly.
There was a rumor Hicham El Guerrouj collapsed and nearly died after a race, his blood was so thick. He collapsed after his world record 1500.
I've never heard that before, but Morceli was treated in hospital for anemia. His body had likely been left unable to produce enough red blood cells naturally. He probably came off EPO after he won his Olympic gold, or throttled back, which is why he declined so quickly.
And Coe was treated for toxoplasmosis. Wanna try some doping theory there too?
1% increase in hematocrit with no increase in blood volume, thus a 1% increase in "global hemoglobin" (it's difficult/expensive to measure so not viable for most of us), will net ~ .62% increase in aerobic power output, which in turn will net an approximate .38% increase in speed at aerobic-dominant pace
some things to consider with that info
an event like the 1500 taps into a considerable amount of power through the anaerobic process (can be over 40% for anaerobic monsters, closer to 20% for anaerobically challenged), and epo even before it has time to make more rbcs has shown that it helps shuttle lactate and/or allow one to sustain higher lactate levels without "tying up", but generally speaking one can still get a close approximation assuming it won't increase aerobic power (even though it actually does somewhat)
i recommend making your calculations in 1% increments (yay for exponents and calculators), meaning you'll get an erroneous estimate on the high-side if you use the formula in paragraph 1 to estimate in the following way: 40% hct --> 50% hct = 25% increase (no, it's not a 10% increase, 10/40 = 25%) 25% x .62 = 15.5% 15.5% x .62 = 9.6% faster for aerobic exclusive event like marathon (not scientifically correct terminology or the actual truth, lactate is always contributing, but for sake of making calculation this is effective) thus a 2:30 marathon turns into = wrong
going from 40% hct --> 50% in 1% increase increments (thus 40 to 40.4 to 40.804 etc) will take twenty-two 1% jumps up from 40 (40 x 1.01^22 = 49.78, 40 x 1.01^23 = 50.29)
corresponding highest potential increase in speed = 1.0038^22 = 1.087, thus a 2:30 marathon at best could turn into ~2:17
of course we know that a clean 2:12 runner is not going to suddenly run 2:00-2:01, so what gives? well, for starters how fast we can run is not just due to oxygen-carrying capacity, absolute speed (flying 150-200 speed is a good metric) matters, tendon elasticity matters, other things matter, but i find it very hard to quantify and i think my experience and knowledge with the substance has led me to believe to some extent (of course he can't completely tell the truth don't be naive) that Renato saying the best of the best east africans (many many generations of ancestors lived at altitude in generally warm weather with very consistent moderately high UV exposure year-round) simply do not benefit (as much) as people who come from sea-level-ish ancestors
so as one gets faster, i would say it is indeed true it helps them less by %, but there are such small gaps among the very best that a small % can make a drastic difference so it's still a game changer
anyways, using the OPs initial example of a 4:30 miler, and lets say it's a white dude born and raised at sea-level just as his ancestors were
lets go with an aerobic : anaerobic power output split of 67% (x = .67) : 33% (y = .33), a base hematocrit of 40% with a target hct of 50%
so that is twenty-two 1% jumps, netting an increase in aerobic power output by about 13% (22% x .62), thus the aerobic portion (x ) that was 67% has increased to 1.13x equivalent to .67 x 1.13 = .75, then add the .33 in and we are at 1.08 meaning 8% more power than before. 8% more power will net about 5% more speed
soooo 4:30 --> ~ 4:17 at best, half that improvement at worst, so range of 4:17 - 4:23/4
there are of course other factors, especially psychological like the potential of taking training, diet, recovery much more seriously when using because "now you're being serious and want to maximize gains and make it worth it", and doing the same in craces
who is helped most by increasing hematocrit (again, global hemoglobin for you sticklers)? people born, raised and descended from sea-level ancestors, with a lot of basic/max/raw speed reserve in the tank (like a 4:30 miler that can run a 23-flat 200 as opposed to 4:30 miler with 26-flat 200 speed) and an aerobic system that has not been fully maximized (either short-term in your own single life, or long-term in the many lives of your ancestors due to living at sea-level and doing viking stuff with swords and boats instead of running around and generally trying to not overheat or die of thirst/starvation)
it's not super complicated, but generally this is all just sitting in my head and i don't have discussions in words with myself about it so am not used to writing it all out thus it comes across a bit convoluted surely
TLDR: can't properly estimate the OPs examples of 4:30 or 4:10 miler because i can't accurately calculate their aerobic:anaerobic power output ratio without another pb being provided and i don't know how much absolute speed reserve they are working with or what their starting hct is and how high they are willing to go (still lots of room for improvement beyond 50%, can't recommend going above the upper 50s though it gets a little dicey especially if you sweat profusely)
anyway, feel free to ama, i promise i know more about this than over 99% of the forum (and nobody ever lies on here so it's legit for sure for sure)
And Coe was treated for toxoplasmosis. Wanna try some doping theory there too?
No, that's for you to try to do. Ovett once lost a bit of blood when he collided with church railings. I see no need to try any doping theory there, but if you want to, feel free.
If EPO levels are too high the body will produce too many red blood cells which can thicken the blood, leading to clotting, heart attack and stroke. Repeated doses of EPO can also stimulate the development of antibodies directed against EPO, which can result in anaemia. The long-term health risks of sustained EPO use are still unclear.
El Guerrouj. Morceli, who came back from the bitter diappointment of seventh place in the 1992 Olympic final to breaking the world record later that season and which he bettered three years later, has tasted nothing but defeat since his Olympic triumph last year. El Guerrouj, who took silver behind Morceli in Gothenburg two years ago, outclassed him in the Grand Prix final in Milan which also resulted in him losing his four year unbeaten run over the distance, and saw his indoor world record blasted apart by his nemesis El Guerrouj in Stuttgart in February -- the effects of these blows have cooled their relationship. Not surprisingly Morceli, who is also the mile world record holder, has cooled at the prospect of meeting the Moroccan too often and although he denies it it appears he is losing the psychological battle. He has not been helped this season by suffering from anaemia, a problem that has affected Jamaican sprint queen Merlene Ottey, and was treated for it in Switzerland after he retired midway through his much hyped 'duel' with Haile Gebrselassie in Hengelo in June.
(before EPO was invented), but even on full EPO (1990s) the record is only five seconds faster.
So to answer your question, 5 seconds is the most it has helped HUMANITY in the 1500m.
You are missing the fact that athletes used blood transfusions before EPO, which has more or less the same effect.
As for expert estimates, Ashenden/Parisotto estimated 15 - 30 sec over 5,000, Schumacher up to 1 minute over 10,000, and Malm up to 3% in general (all for unlimited blood doping, regardless whether transfusions and or EPO).
To be complete: Salazar estimated 2 minutes for the marathon by doping (without specifying which), and Canova 2 minutes for the marathon by steroids.
(before EPO was invented), but even on full EPO (1990s) the record is only five seconds faster.
So to answer your question, 5 seconds is the most it has helped HUMANITY in the 1500m.
You are missing the fact that athletes used blood transfusions before EPO, which has more or less the same effect.
As for expert estimates, Ashenden/Parisotto estimated 15 - 30 sec over 5,000, Schumacher up to 1 minute over 10,000, and Malm up to 3% in general (all for unlimited blood doping, regardless whether transfusions and or EPO).
To be complete: Salazar estimated 2 minutes for the marathon by doping (without specifying which), and Canova 2 minutes for the marathon by steroids.
Yes. Good point. But transfusions increase volume as well. EPO is just adding red blood cells (thicker blood). I might be wrong about that; what do I know! :)
My point is that there are limits about how much you can do. If you are near the limit to begin with, it is less of an improvement to get to that limit (less improvement). That is why Kip Keino on EPO wouldn't have been a 3:22 runner...
It is the same with losing weight, for example. If I lose 25 lbs, I would be much better. If Nuguse lost 25 pounds, he would be dead.
Upping my mileage from 40 to 80 mpw might bring me huge gains. Grant Fisher going from 110 to 150 might not have the same benefit because there are upper limits for all these things.
This post was edited 22 seconds after it was posted.
What about Cathal Lombard? I can’t remember the specifics but didn’t he go from a shade under 30 for 10k down to mid 27s?
That's right - almost a 3 minute improvement over 18 months! 😲 He also set the Irish national record & qualified for the Olympics. This is what I was talking about with an athlete that is a high-responder to O2-Vector doping.
It is not quite a first for track and field, but in telling the world yesterday, "Hands up, I did it," Cathal Lombard, the Irish distance runner whose positive test for the blood-boosting substance erythropoietin came to ligh...
What about Cathal Lombard? I can’t remember the specifics but didn’t he go from a shade under 30 for 10k down to mid 27s?
That's right - almost a 3 minute improvement over 18 months! 😲 He also set the Irish national record & qualified for the Olympics. This is what I was talking about with an athlete that is a high-responder to O2-Vector doping.
keep in mind over the course of that 18-24 months other things almost surely changed as well, such as more volume, better diet, more consistency, more sleep etc. due to greater psychological motivation knowing he was using
most people who use peds are like that though, so it's not abnormal to see one be more serious and get a huge increase in performance like he did
1% increase in hematocrit with no increase in blood volume, thus a 1% increase in "global hemoglobin" (it's difficult/expensive to measure so not viable for most of us), will net ~ .62% increase in aerobic power output, which in turn will net an approximate .38% increase in speed at aerobic-dominant pace
some things to consider with that info
an event like the 1500 taps into a considerable amount of power through the anaerobic process (can be over 40% for anaerobic monsters, closer to 20% for anaerobically challenged), and epo even before it has time to make more rbcs has shown that it helps shuttle lactate and/or allow one to sustain higher lactate levels without "tying up", but generally speaking one can still get a close approximation assuming it won't increase aerobic power (even though it actually does somewhat)
i recommend making your calculations in 1% increments (yay for exponents and calculators), meaning you'll get an erroneous estimate on the high-side if you use the formula in paragraph 1 to estimate in the following way: 40% hct --> 50% hct = 25% increase (no, it's not a 10% increase, 10/40 = 25%) 25% x .62 = 15.5% 15.5% x .62 = 9.6% faster for aerobic exclusive event like marathon (not scientifically correct terminology or the actual truth, lactate is always contributing, but for sake of making calculation this is effective) thus a 2:30 marathon turns into = wrong
going from 40% hct --> 50% in 1% increase increments (thus 40 to 40.4 to 40.804 etc) will take twenty-two 1% jumps up from 40 (40 x 1.01^22 = 49.78, 40 x 1.01^23 = 50.29)
corresponding highest potential increase in speed = 1.0038^22 = 1.087, thus a 2:30 marathon at best could turn into ~2:17
of course we know that a clean 2:12 runner is not going to suddenly run 2:00-2:01, so what gives? well, for starters how fast we can run is not just due to oxygen-carrying capacity, absolute speed (flying 150-200 speed is a good metric) matters, tendon elasticity matters, other things matter, but i find it very hard to quantify and i think my experience and knowledge with the substance has led me to believe to some extent (of course he can't completely tell the truth don't be naive) that Renato saying the best of the best east africans (many many generations of ancestors lived at altitude in generally warm weather with very consistent moderately high UV exposure year-round) simply do not benefit (as much) as people who come from sea-level-ish ancestors
so as one gets faster, i would say it is indeed true it helps them less by %, but there are such small gaps among the very best that a small % can make a drastic difference so it's still a game changer
anyways, using the OPs initial example of a 4:30 miler, and lets say it's a white dude born and raised at sea-level just as his ancestors were
lets go with an aerobic : anaerobic power output split of 67% (x = .67) : 33% (y = .33), a base hematocrit of 40% with a target hct of 50%
so that is twenty-two 1% jumps, netting an increase in aerobic power output by about 13% (22% x .62), thus the aerobic portion (x ) that was 67% has increased to 1.13x equivalent to .67 x 1.13 = .75, then add the .33 in and we are at 1.08 meaning 8% more power than before. 8% more power will net about 5% more speed
soooo 4:30 --> ~ 4:17 at best, half that improvement at worst, so range of 4:17 - 4:23/4
there are of course other factors, especially psychological like the potential of taking training, diet, recovery much more seriously when using because "now you're being serious and want to maximize gains and make it worth it", and doing the same in craces
who is helped most by increasing hematocrit (again, global hemoglobin for you sticklers)? people born, raised and descended from sea-level ancestors, with a lot of basic/max/raw speed reserve in the tank (like a 4:30 miler that can run a 23-flat 200 as opposed to 4:30 miler with 26-flat 200 speed) and an aerobic system that has not been fully maximized (either short-term in your own single life, or long-term in the many lives of your ancestors due to living at sea-level and doing viking stuff with swords and boats instead of running around and generally trying to not overheat or die of thirst/starvation)
it's not super complicated, but generally this is all just sitting in my head and i don't have discussions in words with myself about it so am not used to writing it all out thus it comes across a bit convoluted surely
TLDR: can't properly estimate the OPs examples of 4:30 or 4:10 miler because i can't accurately calculate their aerobic:anaerobic power output ratio without another pb being provided and i don't know how much absolute speed reserve they are working with or what their starting hct is and how high they are willing to go (still lots of room for improvement beyond 50%, can't recommend going above the upper 50s though it gets a little dicey especially if you sweat profusely)
anyway, feel free to ama, i promise i know more about this than over 99% of the forum (and nobody ever lies on here so it's legit for sure for sure)
Very interesting, thanks!
Out of curiosity, how much does hematocrit help per "unit"? I'm curious as to what my potential would have been if I doped to the gills. I ran 4:05 off of about 24.5 (flying) 200 speed. Ancestry is around 90% white/European with the remainder native. I think the 3000 was my best distance, followed by 1500 / mile, then 5000. I had my blood tested at the start of my best season to see if I was anemic and had a hematocrit of 39.
Yes. Good point. But transfusions increase volume as well. EPO is just adding red blood cells (thicker blood). I might be wrong about that; what do I know! :)
Pros centrifuge the blood before (freezing and) adding, so the transfusion basically only adds the cells.
I agree with the rest (diminishing return and limit and whatnot).
Blot clot or stroke or heart attack from a blood clot
idk if this is true.... according to this website everyone is on EPO but never heard of a single elite runner having any of these issues save one that was almost certainly not doping and had a heart condition RIP ryan shay... maybe PEDs are just good for our overall health and unless we're competing we should be taking them... I knew a professional baseball player, high draft pick but don't think ever made the show... said the best thing he ever did was HGH... maybe a lot of these PEDs are just great for overall health?
Out of curiosity, how much does hematocrit help per "unit"? I'm curious as to what my potential would have been if I doped to the gills. I ran 4:05 off of about 24.5 (flying) 200 speed. Ancestry is around 90% white/European with the remainder native. I think the 3000 was my best distance, followed by 1500 / mile, then 5000. I had my blood tested at the start of my best season to see if I was anemic and had a hematocrit of 39.
i'm not totally sure what you mean by "help per 'unit'"
as in receiving "one unit" of blood? quick search says this is the content of one unit, "The volume of one unit of RBCs contains approximately 200mL red blood cells, 100 mL of an additive solution, and ~30mL plasma, with a hematocrit approximately 55%". calculating the improvement with any accuracy isn't really possible without knowing what your total blood volume was to start with. say it was 5 liters though, you just added about 6% more volume to that and it was almost 50% higher rbc concentration than your starting blood, so if i'm doing the quick math right that is 1.5x x 6% = 9% increase in oxygen carrying capacity which would net about 5.5% more aerobic power output
was the 4:05 for 1500 or mile? what did you run in the 3000 and 5000?
Say I'm a 4:30 miler. will EPO get me to 4:10? What if i'm a 4:10 miler, will EPO get me a sub-4? Asking for a friend.
I have always wondered what EPO tastes like, and the texture. If I'm not being tested, can I take an EPO shot or tablet before a race, and do you suddenly feel a burst of energy when you take it. For pros I guess they would be taking it before training sessions when the testers are far away from their Norweigen village
I guess everyone cheats. If not, someone could have run 3:20 by now if they started to cheat.
I see your logic but I think you are missing the next step, how the muscle fibers use the oxygen. And there is an upper limit to where EPO can take you, which some people are at naturally. I am naturally a 42 hematocrit, so EPO would have helped me a lot. But if you are naturally at 50, there is less "room to improve."
There is a "max" hematocrit that athletes can have and still live (blood gets too thick), but there is also a limit on how fast your muscle can use the oxygen. So at some point, let's say at 51 or 52, you start to see very diminished returns (if any) on "more red blood cells."
That is why people like Kip Keino or Jim Ryun, for example who might have had a natural hematocrit of 52, would be running 3:31-32 back in the 1960s (before EPO was invented), but even on full EPO (1990s) the record is only five seconds faster.
So to answer your question, 5 seconds is the most it has helped HUMANITY in the 1500m.
Ryun ran 3:33. Keino was nowhere near that - 3:35. So the improvement is possibly bigger. 7-8 secs. Like Katir - 3:36 to 3:28 in a year.
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