I agree that the indoor stadium at the Millrose Games is just as fast as outdoors. Kerr had a pacer until 45 seconds left in Grant Fisher, Jakob ran by himself the last 2,5 minutes. Kerr managed to beat Grant by 3 seconds and Cole Hocker by 5 seconds. Do we believe those guys are 7:20 and 7:22 3K runners respectively??
3000m is shorter than 2 miles, so you would expect Kerr to be better over 3000m than 2 miles.
He was also obviously not in 3:27 shape indoor.
Aregawi ran 12:40 closing in 55 from the front to drop Cheptegei, you think Kerr could touch that? Kejelcha is a 3:47 indoor / 12:40 / 26:30 / 57:40 guy and he still died trying to go with Jakob, yet you think he could hang at that pace, that's funny.
What is Aregawi’s 1500/mile PB?
The mile is only 1391m short of a 3000m
Kerr dropped Jakob in the last three 1500/mile confrontations
…and Kerr is the indoor 2 mile WR holder
Aregawi is strong of course, but Kerr is one notch above.
Kejelcha’s 3:47 is from 2019 when he was training with Salazar (he was on totally different sauce)
He ran a 2miles in 8:00 indoors which had a lot of tight turns. Let's assume that slowed him down 0.5s/lap. That would be 8 seconds which put him at 7:52 outdoors which is equqevenit to a 7:16 3k. The IAAF equivalent table also has him at 7:53 outdoors, which is in accordance with my theory.
There's a reason why all of those milers that run those fast times at BU and UW can't replicate them outdoors...those banked tracks are faster than outdoor tracks.
This is the correct answer.
Remember, indoor mile WR Kejelcha has ZERO outdoor 1500/mile credentials.
If Kerr is distinctly better than JI over 1500m, and is his equal or better over 3km, and JI absolutely ran away with the past two WC 5kms, there is no reason Kerr would have skipped the 5km at the Olympics (especially considering all rounds are after the 1500m final). Kerr’s behavior broadcasts what everyone already knows; JI is unmatched.
He ran a 2miles in 8:00 indoors which had a lot of tight turns. Let's assume that slowed him down 0.5s/lap. That would be 8 seconds which put him at 7:52 outdoors which is equqevenit to a 7:16 3k. The IAAF equivalent table also has him at 7:53 outdoors, which is in accordance with my theory.
Instead of making up a bunch of random time losses to convert to outdoors 2 mile then convert to 3k, why not just look at his score for indoor 2 mile? 8:00 indoor 2 mile is 1314 points. 1314 points is a 7:18.5 outdoor 3000m
World Athletics should just throw out the indoor results scores. They’re obviously bogus. Does anyone think Adam Fogg is capable of 3:44.9 outdoors, or Woody is capable of 12:37 outdoors? Of course not, it’s absurd.
The points are based on statistical analyses of all-time lists, roughly assuming that the 5th/50th/500th best performances in each event will be equal value. So if for decades the top runners didn’t compete indoors, or did so in offseason form to shake some rust, and were often running on crappy tracks as you go back some years, it follows that the points values would be deceptive.
…
I think on a good day Kerr could run maybe 7:23? Which is awesome. Think about how laughable most people would have thought that was only 13 months ago.
If Kerr is distinctly better than JI over 1500m, and is his equal or better over 3km, and JI absolutely ran away with the past two WC 5kms, there is no reason Kerr would have skipped the 5km at the Olympics (especially considering all rounds are after the 1500m final). Kerr’s behavior broadcasts what everyone already knows; JI is unmatched.
I was thinking about the 5,000m in the Olympics. It would of been an easy gold for Josh. Josh could run 12:45 in a time trial, but the low IQ runners with sub 12:40 PBs just turned the race into a 1500m runner's race. Josh is the better 1500m runner, so would have spanked Jakob again, like he has literally been doing every time they have met since the WC last year
I was thinking about the 5,000m in the Olympics. It would of been an easy gold for Josh. Josh could run 12:45 in a time trial, but the low IQ runners with sub 12:40 PBs just turned the race into a 1500m runner's race. Josh is the better 1500m runner, so would have spanked Jakob again, like he has literally been doing every time they have met since the WC last year
Your permission to ever write 'low IQ' has been revoked.
Instead of making up a bunch of random time losses to convert to outdoors 2 mile then convert to 3k, why not just look at his score for indoor 2 mile? 8:00 indoor 2 mile is 1314 points. 1314 points is a 7:18.5 outdoor 3000m
Exactly, 7:18 sounds about right for him in a 3k, but that's without pacing light. With a pacing light and pacers, he can go 7:16 which would beat the current WR.
Until Kerr actually runs the WR for 3000m, he can't do it.
Wow, 3.5m every 200m of slowing down because of a sharper radius on turns. Why don't we assume something even stronger? After all, you definitely didn't choose that figure just for the whole computation to confirm what you wanted.
I think turns slowed Kerr down 1.5s/lap. He can ran 7:08 for 3k.
Instead of making up a bunch of random time losses to convert to outdoors 2 mile then convert to 3k, why not just look at his score for indoor 2 mile? 8:00 indoor 2 mile is 1314 points. 1314 points is a 7:18.5 outdoor 3000m
Exactly, 7:18 sounds about right for him in a 3k, but that's without pacing light. With a pacing light and pacers, he can go 7:16 which would beat the current WR.
I think he had a pacer all the way in his 2 miles WB!? Did you watch the race?
I think about this all the time, why they cant replicate outdoors?? I think that the fact that the indoor tracks are slightly elevated above the ground turns them into trampolines due to the force that the runners generate when running. It is the same thing that happened in the Europeans with the triple jump, they set up the triple area on a platform
No "elephant in the room" more like a mouse. If Kerr belives he can beat the current 3k record then the best way to prove this is race the distance and go for the record.
The British 3k record is 7:32, Kerr could powerwalk his way to at least a 5 second improvement if he had joined the race at Silesia, but the man is absolutely terrified of joining a race he doesn't think he has a 100% chance of winning.
If Kerr thinks he can run faster than 7:17, he'll go for it.
He's a big boy and can make those types of decisions.
He'd probably want Ingebrigsten in the same race to use for help...so that's unlikely at this point.
Why are so many people in this thread implying that Kerr has said he can break the 3k WR? He's always been quite humble about his performances above the mile. Even after he broke the indoor 2-mile record, he said in his post-race interview that 7:54 is different gravy. In interview after the Olympics he was asked about moving up to the 5k and just laughed about his PB. He knows very well that he's primarily a miler who can also run a very good 3k.
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