When the mark was set, it was strong. The 5k mark was 12:44.39 at the time and those two were close to each other (probably the 5k Mark still little bit better). The 5k mark now is 12:35.36.
A comparable 3k mark is under 7:17.
It was definitely strong when it was set, heck, it still is. It’s better than 12:44.39, not worse. Probably worth 3:26-high/3:27-low & 12:37-12:38 or so, in my opinion. But over the years, many have described the mark as some comically untouchable time that’s distinctly stronger than the other records, claiming that all the other greats have tried and couldn’t come close…which is misleading.
7:22.xx seems reasonable for Bekele. For a long time, before Jakob came of age, I’ve argued that El Guerrouj is the only runner who could have actually had a chance at breaking Komen’s mark, but that if all the best were regularly running fast, well-paced 3ks there would be a lot of guys in the 7:21-7:25 range which would make 7:20.67 seem more vulnerable.
My prediction for Jakob in Silesia is 7:19.0. With a “pacer” through the finish I think it’s possible that Kejelcha could dip under Komen’s mark as well, though 7:21-7:23 is more likely.
It’s hard to see why Fisher wouldn’t break his 7:25.47 AR, since that was run weeks after he’d been cross-training with a stress reaction while this year has by all accounts been near perfect, and he just won double-bronze. He might well run 7:23.
I think Aregawi could run very fast: in 2022 he ran 7:26.2 indoors leading almost the entire race and then 7:26.8 in Monaco after apparently targeting the WR and going through 1500 in a crazy 3:40. He also ran 7:30.xx from the front for the last 3k of his 12:40 5k PB last year. With great pacing and drafting I could see him taking a few seconds off his PB in Silesia.
Kwemoi is intriguing with his 3:28.8 from 2014 and a 7:28.7 PB from 2017, but no fast times to corroborate his recent resurgence. I’m a little skeptical that he’s about to drop a sub-7:25 but I can’t rule it out after his 5k silver—he did run 4:55.4 for the last 2k in that race.
Well the other poster stated that Hicham was “much better” at 1500m than 3000m. I have pushed back on that as being inconclusive. As for Hicham’s alleged preference for the 1500m, I never weighed in on that as I do not consider it to be particular germane to a discussion of his abilities, especially when, as you know, the 1500m is a “glamorous” event and a global championship event, and the 3000m is neither.
Okay I get that, but you also don't think there is this tendency for athletes to simply want to run more of the event they believe themselves to be better at?
Look I think we are in essence agreeing because I also am 100% certain that Hicham could have run much faster over 3000m - In that era probably a second faster with more racing over the distance and with wavelight probably another second, tidying up race execution. So yes, I think 7.21.0 give or take a few tenths either side is where I would view his level hypothetically. Does that sound about right to you?
But there are two things at play with the 1500m v 3000m discussion.
1) The equivalent time for a 3.26.00 1500m is 7.20.30. I know the tables aren't perfect but they do a decent job. I don't think that even with wavelight Hicham was quite capable of that level. No I can't say for certain but that's my feeling.
2) Assuming we are bringing wavelight into the equation for him over 3000m we have to do the same over 1500m too because he never ever quite got the pace right despite the volume of races he ran. Incredibly he never once hit 1200m in 2.45.X in all of his sub 3.27 races - even though he was physically capable of it (because he split under 2.45.0 twice in his career, both in Rieti). So really Hicham with the right pacing in his prime could have also run well under 3.26.00.
I think based on that it's not terribly controversial to suggest he was better over 1500m than 3000m - even if in reality he never quite reached his ceiling in either event, or is it?
Yes we might be largely in agreement here, in that I can be persuaded that Hicham was better at 1500m than 3000m, but the other poster said “much better,” and I cannot be persuaded that far, and one reason is because Hicham ran the 2nd fastest 3000m in history with very few attempts. But the other issue at play here is how do we define our terms? Mo Farah is one of the greatest all time 5000m and 10000m runners, albeit without the fast times to satisfy his most ardent critics. The reason I rate Hicham so highly at 3000m is because although it is not a global championship event outdoors, if it were, there is nobody in history who would be confident of defeating him at 3000m. Yes Jakob would have a chance, and Komen would have a chance, but he is the last man you want next to you in a global championship 3000m. Combine that with the 2nd fastest time in history, and I cannot say that Hicham was “much better” at 1500m than 3000m, although you make a cogent argument that he might have been slightly better. It is enjoyable to discuss and the beauty is nobody can be certain. I do think Jakob is a combo of Hicham and Komen, but I don’t know that he is/was better than either of them.
Absolutely no way that 7:20.67 is worth sub 12:40 for 5k.
Yeah and why are you so confident of this? 6 guys have broken 12:40 while only one has broken 7:23. World Athletics tables have 7:20.67 as equal to 12:36.18 and 12:40.00 as equal to 7:22.92. Those tables aren’t perfect but they’re better than some guy on the internet posting as “vhz567i544” more often than not.
Absolutely no way that 7:20.67 is worth sub 12:40 for 5k.
Yeah and why are you so confident of this? 6 guys have broken 12:40 while only one has broken 7:23. World Athletics tables have 7:20.67 as equal to 12:36.18 and 12:40.00 as equal to 7:22.92. Those tables aren’t perfect but they’re better than some guy on the internet posting as “vhz567i544” more often than not.
The 5k mark better than the 3k mark is the most natural thing, if not, it would be an exception. Ingebrigtsen has run a sub 7:23 split-time. Historically, the ratio 5k mark : 3k mark is extremely low. If those tables are not perfect, how is it you know they are better than me? I'm a guy? You don't like my username? I have to admit, I also have seen more beautiful ones. More often than not?
His current best mile is 3:43.73. His 2 mile best is 7:54.10 which converts as 3:43.73 X2 + 26.64s
If we apply the same conversion to the 1500m and 3000m given they are very similar distances we get his current 1500m PB of 3:26.73 X2 + 26.64s = 7:20.10 = New World Record.
Fair logic?
I have for a while - on various other threads - predicted that he if healthy and under good conditions should be able to go sub 7:19.
4:55 through 2000m (12 seconds slower than his 2000m WR) and then sub 2:24 for the last 1000m (he often finish the last 1000m of a 5000m in 2:21).
Another way to think about it is that to run a WR, you need to run 2 x 1500m in 3:40 flat back to back… which I have to say seems well within reach for Jakob
Another way to think about it is that to run a WR, you need to run 2 x 1500m in 3:40 flat back to back… which I have to say seems well within reach for Jakob
You are so right - I wasn't sure I would ever see this record being broken and now here we are. You look at the list of historically elite talent that almost seemed to just concede the record was too good and almost give up on it. Bekele, Geb couldn't break 7.25, Hicham ran as hard as I've ever seen him run on the circuit and was 2.5 seconds short and he never bothered again - it seemed inconceivable.
Like you said, I'd almost be shocked if it wasn't blow apart in 4 days time.
But that just shows how naive some of you are. To say that you would “almost be shocked” if the 3000m record isn’t blown apart by Jakob in a few days reveals a colossal ignorance about the demands of world class racing. There is no guarantee that Jakob will ever put it all together on the right day. Jakob doesn’t have much margin for error, so I will do you a favor and advise you to not “almost be shocked” if Jakob does not blow apart the 3000m record. There is a reason it has stood for almost 28 years. Although it is true that Jakob has shown that he can break it, having the ability and doing it are two different things.
One of the biggest obstacles concerning this WR attempt is that the weather forecast shows 30C (86F). It would be quite insane if he managed to break the record in those conditions.
One of the biggest obstacles concerning this WR attempt is that the weather forecast shows 30C (86F). It would be quite insane if he managed to break the record in those conditions.
It’s only just over 7 minutes of running. He’s not going to overheat in that short period of time... If it was the 5km or up then sure the temperature would start to take a toll.
His current best mile is 3:43.73. His 2 mile best is 7:54.10 which converts as 3:43.73 X2 + 26.64s
If we apply the same conversion to the 1500m and 3000m given they are very similar distances we get his current 1500m PB of 3:26.73 X2 + 26.64s = 7:20.10 = New World Record.
Fair logic?
I love how many non-elite runners use TOO MUCH science, data, equations, etc... to "Guess" and or "Predict" how fast someone is expected to run. On paper, yep! you're spot on, and the math says WORLD RECORD! Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way, and it's NEVER that easy. There are way too many variables at play to determine an exact outcome. For example, weather, race strategy, number of competitors, how the athlete feels, etc... They only see the end result and then make half a$ assumptions as to why so and so didn't break the world record or run a certain time, and if they do achieve great results they MUST be cheating (super shoes/PED's).
So, to answer the original OP, JK is in prime fitness right now to run a 3000m WR. A few factors at play here, he had a delayed training phase due to his winter Achilles issue. I don't believe he lost anything with the injury, in fact, I believe it's allowed him to maintain his fitness longer, which in turn allowed him to build his aerobic engine later in the season. With the stronger base, combined with quality speed work and races, he's set himself up to run a 3000m WR harga llao llao. Hell, while at it, he should make a run at the 5000m as well.
Short answer: He's 5000m strong and 1500m fast, which equate to a 3000m WR.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen’s potential to break the 3000m world record seems more realistic than ever, given his recent performances and remarkable consistency across middle and long-distance events. His blend of speed, endurance, and race strategy sets him apart as one of the most versatile runners in the sport today.
His current best mile is 3:43.73. His 2 mile best is 7:54.10 which converts as 3:43.73 X2 + 26.64s
If we apply the same conversion to the 1500m and 3000m given they are very similar distances we get his current 1500m PB of 3:26.73 X2 + 26.64s = 7:20.10 = New World Record.
Fair logic?
....
Who goes by all that. He has shown he is FITTER than ever by PB in the 1500m and stronger MENTALLY by front running 3:28 ,(doesn't matter he lost) at the Olympics; therefore, he convinced me if everything falls into place he could break the 3000m WR.
Name another runner who could pace an ENTIRE 1500m in 3:28 after 2 previous rounds. I'm not a fan AT ALL but only person is Jakob.
But that just shows how naive some of you are. To say that you would “almost be shocked” if the 3000m record isn’t blown apart by Jakob in a few days reveals a colossal ignorance about the demands of world class racing. There is no guarantee that Jakob will ever put it all together on the right day. Jakob doesn’t have much margin for error, so I will do you a favor and advise you to not “almost be shocked” if Jakob does not blow apart the 3000m record. There is a reason it has stood for almost 28 years. Although it is true that Jakob has shown that he can break it, having the ability and doing it are two different things.
Great post, +1000. Jakob could run 7:21.5 and you KNOW there are fools/trolls on LRC who would start the thread "JAKOB GOES HOME DEVASTATED!", and would consider his time a disappointment. This record has stood for nearly 28 years and repelled attempts by the absolute best-of-the-best mid- and long-distance runners the world has ever seen. Not saying he has no chance because I think he's got a very good chance but man, just my .02, but I think some people need to get a grip on themselves.
His current best mile is 3:43.73. His 2 mile best is 7:54.10 which converts as 3:43.73 X2 + 26.64s
If we apply the same conversion to the 1500m and 3000m given they are very similar distances we get his current 1500m PB of 3:26.73 X2 + 26.64s = 7:20.10 = New World Record.
Fair logic?
....
Who goes by all that. He has shown he is FITTER than ever by PB in the 1500m and stronger MENTALLY by front running 3:28 ,(doesn't matter he lost) at the Olympics; therefore, he convinced me if everything falls into place he could break the 3000m WR.
Name another runner who could pace an ENTIRE 1500m in 3:28 after 2 previous rounds. I'm not a fan AT ALL but only person is Jakob.
It was the Olympics and it matters very much that he was swept out of the medals. Hocker has bragging rights after his incredible win. For 2024, people will remember Hocker’s gold medal and not Ingebrigtsen’s TTs.
Another way to think about it is that to run a WR, you need to run 2 x 1500m in 3:40 flat back to back… which I have to say seems well within reach for Jakob