Not even one mention of Kelati and the future of american running. Shemost likely will be starting her marathon career soon and will, I think, be one of the best marathoners in the world......
This year alone she went from 14:51- 14:33 int he 5k, and 31:09 to 30:34 in the 10k, along with an american record in her first half marathon ever.
I’d be more impressed if she ended up higher than 8th in the Olympics 10K.
Explain Nadia Battocletti. Missed gold by about a meter.
Here'a hint: US runners at distances above 1500 lack the speed to compete internationally, and domestic competitions do not reveal that flaw. The US system selects young women for endurance but not speed.
The runners with the best combination of speed and endurance make the team, and that type of runner has the best chance of being competitive in the Olympics.
Is it easy to make a US team? I actually think we have a very competitive women's field in just about every event at USAs. The problem, as others have mentioned, is that our best women are just a little behind the rest of the world in key events. The 1500 is the most clear example where all the trials was historically fast, we sent three great athletes, but then the Olympic final is a 3:50 low race and that's just beyond Nikki and ESP. The only real weak event that I see is the 10k but that's also the case on the men's side and Grant's medal is patching over the crack that we don't have much depth behind him and Nico.
Also the injuries hurt our ladies this year while all our best guys were pretty much 100% fit. Adding Athing Mu, even at a lower level than her usual, we have another medal threat at 800 and Monson could be someone to replicate Grant in one of her events. Karissa made two teams and she seemed to be just coming back from injury so she could certainly close the gap towards the medal conversation with a year of healthy training and a bit of luck. To me this more reminds me of how it was in the 2010s, rather than the 90s. We have a few people who can snag a medal on the right day (Rupp, Centro, Manzano, Infeld) but if those key players are injured or not 100%, then the chance fades away and we get no medals. The men greatly over performed expectations but I don't know if it's fair to say the women underperformed that massively.
Let's be honest it's pretty hard to compete with today's clownworld times like 28:46 and 14:00 (sub-14s coming soon).
Valby has massive potential and I think Alicia Monson could maybe sneak in for a bronze in the right race a la Grant Fisher, if she were healthy.
I agree, I don’t think our women are doing poorly, necessarily, just did not run their best races at the Olympics.
Athing Mu, if she’s her at her best, could still be one of the top 800m runners in the world.
Hiltz and ESP are running 3:55s when it takes a 3:52 to medal, a time that only 3 women had ever run a few years ago (omitting China’s infamous “Ma’s Army” and before Genzebe Dibaba, no female runner had run.
The 5000 wasn’t horrible, it just wasn’t enough.
In the 10,000, this was a low event for the US. With Monson out, there isn’t a runner rn who could realistically compete for a top 5 position.
Even with Monson it wasn't likely. The top medal contenders are running around 29 flat, minimum 29:30. Monson hasn't run under 30. So even if our runners are near the front with a lap to go, it's only because these other runners aren't full out running yet and they're going to be fresh for a massive kick because they haven't been maxing out yet during the race. On the men's side we had runners in the mix because Grant is a 26:32 guy running against other 26:30 ish guys. And Nico was close because he's a 26:52 guy, which is pretty close to those 26:30's guys.
My question is why the gap between the East Africans and the whole rest of the world, not just Americans, seems to be larger on the women's side, at least at 5k/10k. The only woman who could even stay close in either race was Battocletti, who's one of the most obvious dopers I've ever seen. Notably this wasn't the case in the 1500. On the men's side, even if you exclude Jakob and Grant, the relative margin is smaller.
The fastest Americans in history at the NCAA level are Wiley and Valby.
How is Wiley faster than Mu?
Believe it or not, her best collegiate time is, in fact, faster than Athing Mu's. 1:57.64 vs. 1:57.73. There is the obvious caveat that Mu left collegiate running after only 2 seasons and was heavily involved in relays as well as the 400 while running that 800 time. Wiley ran her time while pretty much just focused on the 800.
My question is why the gap between the East Africans and the whole rest of the world, not just Americans, seems to be larger on the women's side, at least at 5k/10k. The only woman who could even stay close in either race was Battocletti, who's one of the most obvious dopers I've ever seen. Notably this wasn't the case in the 1500. On the men's side, even if you exclude Jakob and Grant, the relative margin is smaller.
It's a body type and training issue. The Ethiopian and Kenyan women have naturally thinner frames than European/American women. If American women try to train exactly like the Ethiopians/Kenyans, they get hurt due to their larger frame. If they try to get thinner to match the Ethiopians/Kenyans body types, then they develop health issues and get hurt. This seems to be an issue at 10K and marathon in particular.
I don't think the American women are terribly far off in the 1,500 and 5,000 and I think the double threshold/high frequency/high cross training/don't overdo mileage approach is working very well for Americans in those events. Nikki and Elle just finished 7th and 8th at the Olympics running 3:56 and 3:57 respectively. They lost to 3 East Africans, the best European women's 1,500 runner of all time (Muir) and two high likelihood dopers (Bell and Hull). That's pretty good! Elise and Karissa also finished 7th and 8th in the 5,000, losing only to East Africans and a likely doper (Battocletti, although I would mention that it is also likely Elise and Karissa were/are doping too). Again, pretty good!
I keep telling friends that she is afflicted with the Ryan Hill syndrome. Not quite fast enough to be a medalist in the 1500 and not quite strong enough to hang in global 5000s. Both have been global indoor medalists in the 3000 though.
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