Still better than Tokyo when only Hocker made the final. Fair point though, if Hocker is around 5th and Yared and Hobbs are further back then it won’t really be that much more impressive. But I think Hocker has a great shot at the bronze at least.
Everyone is focused on Jacob and Kerr but I think Hocker could squeeze in and surprise for second if the pace is slow. Yared has the potential as well, but he is going to have to want it and be more aggressive and position himself correctly.
I see the final playing out the same way with Jacob leading but he is going to have to dig in deep because Kerr can strike at any time.
There is a zero percent chance the race will be slow. JI will run the same race he did when he won in Tokyo. There is absolutely no reason for him to run slow when no human is capable of running faster than him right now. His 4th best EVER 3:26x 3 weeks ago shows that. He would be a fool to let this be anything slower than 3:28.
Can see a US sweep of the medals. Hocker, Kessler and Nuguse. They are clearly the best of the lot. Only two Brits in the final and neither are medal material. The Norway guys maybe a threat, but our guys are better - as they were literally jogging to qualify.
This is officially the new dumbest take ever on LR.
Still better than Tokyo when only Hocker made the final. Fair point though, if Hocker is around 5th and Yared and Hobbs are further back then it won’t really be that much more impressive. But I think Hocker has a great shot at the bronze at least.
Bronze? I think the American has a distinct chance to win if the race plays out to his strengths.
No chance. Hocker is 5 seconds off JIs best time. In what world would JI run this a slow race when he knows its impossible for the 3:30 guys to run with him if he throws down a 3:27.
There is a zero percent chance the race will be slow. JI will run the same race he did when he won in Tokyo. There is absolutely no reason for him to run slow when no human is capable of running faster than him right now. His 4th best EVER 3:26x 3 weeks ago shows that. He would be a fool to let this be anything slower than 3:28.
This. In fact, I see no reason for Jakob not to take the lead immediately and make it a time trial. Kerr still might beat him but no one else could.
If Jakob DOESN'T make it a time trial, he only increases the odds that Kerr beats him.
And if the pace is slow enough that Hocker is still right behind Jakob at the bell lap, Hocker might beat him, too.
Yes in the second race. In the first that is only sort of true and needs context. Hocker ran well, but JI and Kerr ran quite slow to their PRs. Hocker ran within 2 seconds of his PR but JI and Kerr were 5 to 6 seconds off. If JI makes the final a 3:27ish race, only Kerr has the speed to keep up. JI ran 3:26 3 weeks ago so he is sand bagging righ now.
Cannot see an Oly Final run in 3:27pt.
No rabbit. Winner probably more like 3:29.0 (which is plenty fast).
JI and Kerr both want to be legends so we might have a WR final and somebody might do some stupid rabbit stuff just to taste the lead for a lap. Either way this hyped up conversation is really fun and I'm glad following distance running feels cool right now.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
No chance. Hocker is 5 seconds off JIs best time. In what world would JI run this a slow race when he knows its impossible for the 3:30 guys to run with him if he throws down a 3:27.
Hocker’s PB is 3:30.59 and JI’s is 3:26.74. in what math class that you took does that make JI 5s faster?
Hocker and Kessler were not even breathing hard. The Africans were gassed. Something don't smell right. This reminds me of when Salazar came out with his white paper saying you had to dope to play and the following year US went from 2 sub 13s in history to seven.
No chance. Hocker is 5 seconds off JIs best time. In what world would JI run this a slow race when he knows its impossible for the 3:30 guys to run with him if he throws down a 3:27.
Hocker’s PB is 3:30.59 and JI’s is 3:26.74. in what math class that you took does that make JI 5s faster?
Oohh sorry. I was one second off. Big deal. In a 1500, 4 seconds is a lifetime.
There is a zero percent chance the race will be slow. JI will run the same race he did when he won in Tokyo. There is absolutely no reason for him to run slow when no human is capable of running faster than him right now. His 4th best EVER 3:26x 3 weeks ago shows that. He would be a fool to let this be anything slower than 3:28.
This. In fact, I see no reason for Jakob not to take the lead immediately and make it a time trial. Kerr still might beat him but no one else could.
If Jakob DOESN'T make it a time trial, he only increases the odds that Kerr beats him.
And if the pace is slow enough that Hocker is still right behind Jakob at the bell lap, Hocker might beat him, too.
Exactly. There is just no logical reason for JI to let this be anything slower than he won Tokyo. And he is much faster now. Only 1 guy (Kerr) can mayve run that Tokyo time (i say maybe cuz Kerr's PR is a 3:29).
No american is going to medal in the men's 1500m. timothy knows that he doesn't have his 800m speed anymore, so he's in a somewhat similar situation as jakob and requires a fast race to do well. timothy is gonna set a fast pace in the first 100m while jakob comes in and continues that fast pace. they're gonna help each other out to go 3:28 pace for the first 3 laps. jakob finishes in 3:27, timothy finishes in 3:28, and josh kerr struggles to outkick timothy at the end but places 3rd. america goes home devastated.
No american is going to medal in the men's 1500m. timothy knows that he doesn't have his 800m speed anymore, so he's in a somewhat similar situation as jakob and requires a fast race to do well. timothy is gonna set a fast pace in the first 100m while jakob comes in and continues that fast pace. they're gonna help each other out to go 3:28 pace for the first 3 laps. jakob finishes in 3:27, timothy finishes in 3:28, and josh kerr struggles to outkick timothy at the end but places 3rd. america goes home devastated.
This is the right prediction though i think I would swap Kerr into 2nd. JI wins in 3:27 something, a second ish slower than his PR.
This. In fact, I see no reason for Jakob not to take the lead immediately and make it a time trial. Kerr still might beat him but no one else could.
If Jakob DOESN'T make it a time trial, he only increases the odds that Kerr beats him.
And if the pace is slow enough that Hocker is still right behind Jakob at the bell lap, Hocker might beat him, too.
The reason Jakob will not take it immediately is his preference to not run in a pack when he doesn't have to, thus avoiding falling.
Seems reasonable he will hang back at the start like he usually does, survey the field for the first 200 meters, then move to the front and assume the lead by the 600 meter mark.
However, he better hope the Oly finals' first 400 is faster than 60.8 like it was in the today's semis. If so, that plays to his huge advantage. If not, the finals becomes an 1100 meter race which gives the more speed-oriented guys like Kerr & Hocker a fighting chance.
Real question is: what will Nuguse do? His best races have been when he's out quick, takes the lead which is a position in which he seems quite comfortable, then stays in 1st or 2nd place the whole way. It sure worked today in the semis.
In the Oly finals, would be very happy to see Nuguse/field take it out in 57 before tucking in behind JIngy . . . then pray to the running gods they can keep up with Jakob as he ratchets down the pace every 100 meters to the end.
I don't think anyone in the field capable of running 3:30 flat or faster has any incentive to let the pace languish. A 3:32-3:34 pace will create a rush hour bunch that raise the possibility of tripping and trapping. And there is enough other talent to create surprises off a slow pace. I think one or more of JI, YN, JK or TC take it out fast early.
- Jakob took the lead in the last 2 world championships but didn't do much with the lead & both race ended the same for him (no pace changes, didn't do anything to shake things up before the last 400m). He needs to do shift the gears a little bit more if he doesn't want a Brit to sneak a win again.
- Likely, if Jakob wants to win, it needs to look something like El G's last 800m in the Athens 1500m where there was a more concerted effort to squeeze down the pace and spread things out more (which still had a close race with Lagat).
If I had to guess, the 1500m final will look similar to Athens.
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