Cole Hocker: "If I stay healthy, I don’t think anyone can beat me. Definitely not in America,”

The goose is going to blow the socks off this man bun wearing hippie.

LOL I was with you until you called LRC racists and mentioned steve holman.

Well there are a lot of racists here. Although Holman was not a very good big meet runner, he did run 1:44 and 3:31, so let us show some respect. He was quite talented, but yeah, it appears Hocker is better, at least at 1500m and longer.

I like the confidence, but hobbs has tons of talent and his racing savvy seems solid, and yared is capable of throwing down some elite times. I think Cole might find that this take will age poorly.

Uocie is probably just trying to rationalize how the heck so many of you guys think Hocker is better than the 3:43 man.

Nuguse wasn't even really dropped in the trials despite leading the hardest parts of the race. To lead the trials with no questions or hesitations to me shows the clear best miler in America. So unless something has shifted massively in Hockers favor. How the hell does he deserve an almost twice as high odds to medal. Now he's thinking he can't be beaten by another american and that is a ludicrous conclusion given the last year.

Kessler wasn't too far back in the indoor 1500. Nuguse took silver in a more competitive race there too and some here think he did have a shot at gold over Kerr if he ran that race slightly differently. The biggest thing going for Hocker is only he knows how healthy he is/has been and if that has limited his buildup. Other than that I'd argue nuguse lightly tapered for the US trials or at least had the option to. Hocker definitely didn't have that option.

The pro Hocker sample size is:

2021 trials

2024 trials

NCAA?

Pro nuguse sample size:

-3:43 against Jakob

-Beat Kerr after winning gold

-3rd at bowerman(most competitive race of the year)

-Every other race against Cole

This is overwhelmingly in Nuguse's favor as the supreme American miler. I get that Cole has to think this way but it sounds like he's worried about the wrong guy. Worry about the 3:26 man that has been apart of ZERO "slow" 1500m finals. Jakob won't let the race be a 3:30 affair. You have to look at rio or 2017 for a slower final.

I don't even think a 3:30 race is in Cole's favor either. There are still the 1:43 guys that will feel great around that pace. It's in Cole's best interest to just be in the right position and make the final. The health is something I can't account for only Cole.

No.

There’s nothing 1500 runners like more than talking about their 5k strength*

* Placed 7th in the 5k final 🤔

Lol seriously, you are putting your bets on Nuguse? He needs Jakob to pull him through for the American record. Absolute crutch. This won't play well into championship racing. Among the US men, I feel that Hocker and Hobbs have more racer in them.

Ref to the LRC posts on US Olympic Trials. Nuguse got the leading time but unable to replicate that fast time or convert that into a fast finish. His style is very similar to Jakob in terms of racing, however Jakob have the strength to control and lead the race. Anyways, I foresee Nuguse getting a fast time but not winning. While Hocker/Hobbs will likely have a higher likelihood of podiuming with their finishing kick (ofc, if they are in the right position).

Ok I think people over underrating Nuguse, but you're definitely underestimating Hocker. Nuguse did lead the hardest part of the Trials, but Hocker more than dropped him. Jingy was closer to Kerr at Pre than Nuguse was to Hocker at the Trials. Hocker's last 300 was NUTS.

Also the pro Hocker sample size should include his 6th place at the Olympics and 7th place at Worlds.

You don't think a 3:30 race is in his favor because there are 1:43 guys who feel great at that pace? He closed a 3:30 race in 52s, easing up at the end, and later spoke about how he never felt that good before at that pace, and he beat Hobbs Kessler who ran 1:43 twice later that week. Honestly the more I think about it, the more I feel like he's gonna medal, or at least has a better chance than Nuguse. He just runs so well in championships every single time.

Hocker is this generations Alan Webb.

Bold for someone who hasn’t won anything at all internationally

I think Hocker is a very fine runner and in a slower race he definitely has the wheels. But at sub 3:30 pace with elbows and spikes flying (how many falls have there been this year) we'll see. The USA team is a good one and one that poses lots of questions. Will the 2023 Nuguse be back? Can Hocker be in a winning position to use his obvious speed? What is Kessler's ceiling? (I can honestly see him making the 800/1500 finals) and what is the value of fearless youth? My country's team also poses questions. Can McSweyn be competitive in the 1500 (my take is he'll be run out in the heat) Hoare looks good but can he hang on if it's really fast? And what of Spencer? He looked really good at the Australian Championships but hasn't shown much since. Can't wait to see.

What 1:43 guys are you referring to that will feel “great” running a 3:30 pace? You do realize that your kick is based more on your strength than top speed right? This is basic stuff. Please find me a current 1:43 man who closed as fast as Cole did at the trials

Hocker is definitely in my second tier of guys who have a shot and have to be considered medal contenders. He's in there with Nuguse and Cheruiyot, just below Kerr and Ingebrigtsen.

My reservations with Hocker are, first, that he still hasn't broken 3:30. He had perfect pacing for 1300m at USAs and still only ran 3:30. If Nuguse led out Kerr and Ingebrigtsen for 1100-1300m at that pace, they'd both at least run 3:28. Second, Hocker still has no really good results against a top international field. He was never a factor in the finals at Tokyo or Budapest and his DL performances have been mediocre and he's been beaten comfortably by Kerr and Ingebrigtsen whenever they've raced over the last two years. Nuguse disappointed in Budapest but has some DL wins to his name and some fast top-3 finishes in DLs. Hocker's résumé is a lot thinner by comparison.

But both Nuguse and Hocker need to get out of the "top American" mindset. They're among the best of the best globally in the 1500, their rivals aren't domestic also-rans anymore.

You are being too literal. Everyone is hurting the last lap of the olympic 1500m. I was basically stating if it's a 3:30 race Cole isn't who I'd be most concerned about. Without really looking I count 3 3:30/1:43 guys. I mean Cole's magnificient kick you guys are raving about here was MUTED by Geordie Beamish the steepler/5k guy. Beamish was running the 1500m for a change of pace during the indoor. Now Imagine what El Bakkali would do. jkjk I'm just not falling for the Cole Hocker kick hype.

If his kick is his only path to victory you guys would be insane to think only he has those kind of wheels. Jakob/Kerr/Tim/Yared are not going for that mess. Jakob himself has even gotten stronger and kicks off of sub 3:29 pace. Absolutlely no reason to let Cole be a factor to begin with. Then there are still guys like Hoare who will start winding the pace up with 7-800 to go. I just think there are so many variables here that point to a faster race. Now if cole is in it with 300 to go at 3:28-9 pace that is another story.

This statement is actually very wrong analysis but the rest of your comments were fine.

Cole Hocker ran 1:55.73 for the first 800m & 1:34.86 for the last 700m. First 800m of the race at 3:36.99 pace. Last 700m at 3:23.27 pace.

At world’s last year, Jakob ran 1:54.19 for the first 800m & 1:35.46 for the last 700m. First 800m of the race at 3:34.10 pace. Last 700m at 3:24.55 pace.

So it was Kerr / Jakob that had more optimal pacing. Cole had a more dramatic negative split.

A lot slower start makes for a slightly faster finish, what else is new? Thats my problem with Hocker. Cool, he is really good to run down B-tier americans and slightly edge off Nuguse in a 3:30 race. What have he done that is either a great time, or a great result against international competition at a high level? Anything close to a podium? No? Nuguse have that. Hocker does not have either.

Are you that blind that you can't see how stupidly arrogant you sound?

Perfect pacing? 41.92/59.23/56.82/52.63 is not that. The slow second lap and overly fast last lap. There is zero chance Kerr and Jakob would put 1.6s or more on Hocker in the last 200 and run a 51.0 last lap with a sub-25 last 200. Yes Nuguse has the better resume but Hocker showed in this race he has a great kick now in a quicker race. We will see in a really quick race if it comes to that.