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Will Kipchoge and Bekele finish before/after the top American?

Peach Pit · 2024-07-29T20:38:43-04:00

The US marathon team isn't really strong this year with Young/Mantz/Korir unlikely to medal. Bekele last 2 races have been master's WRs, so he looks like he's finally training consistently, although 2:04 is a long way from 2:01. Kipchoge hasn't looked great lately, but he's less than 2 years off setting a WR, and there's no reason to think he couldn't still run close to his best if training has been going well. Assuming Kipchoge and Bekele have both been healthy, they can probably run at least 2:03 on a good course. Alas, Paris is not a course for fast times.The hills are more comparable to cross country than to marathoning. One might expect Mantz and Bekele to do a bit better comparatively due to their (very) respective success at XC. One might also say that XC success has nothing to do with how someone handles a hilly marathon, and it's not like Bekele is any more successful in hilly marathons than Kipchoge. The wonderful thing about the Paris course is the hills are so extreme that there's no way to know if either argument holds any water until we see them race. There really is no precedent for this course.The hills are so crazy that basically anything could happen. The hills are all in the middle of the race, and there's no extreme elevation change for the last 6 miles, which is 'when the race really starts'. It's not at all inconceivable that Bekele and Kipchoge go out in the lead pack, hit the hills way too fast, then are overtaken by Conor Mantz in the pain cave. Particularly because that exact thing almost happened in Boston last year. Of course the Americans could bonk too, but I feel like there's a good chance at least one of them tries to run their own race, whereas Kipchoge and Bekele will want gold or at least a medal.I think there's a better chance that they both finish behind the top American than either of them medaling.

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mictlantecuhtli

Member since 06/17/2024.
2,019 posts. Last post 4 hours ago.

1 year ago 08/10/2024 4:25am EDT
re: MasterofNone

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MasterofNone wrote:
I'll buy everyone on this thread a supporter's club membership if any American beats Kipchoge/Bekele provided they do not DNF.
C'mon. Kipchoge has time to take a crap mid race and cool down before any of our guys finish
pay up buddy

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Peach Pit

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1 year ago 08/10/2024 4:28am EDT
re: John Wesley Harding

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John Wesley Harding wrote:
Kipchoge and Bekele both top-8
Top 8? More like too l8.
JWH wrote:
and the Americans approximately 10-15-25ish.
Call Conner Mantz Eluid Kipchoge the way he's top 8

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1500m-enthusiast

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1 year ago 08/10/2024 4:42am EDT
re: Peach Pit

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I think I forget sometimes just how much of a different beast the marathon is compared to the track disciplines. It seems that no matter how good you are or how much you try to prepare, you're bound to get humbled by it at least once (and probably more than that).
I guess this race sort of reminded me of why "hobby joggers" and non runners respect the distance so much now.

This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.

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read, b*tch

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1 year ago 08/10/2024 5:06am EDT
re: mictlantecuhtli

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mictlantecuhtli wrote:
MasterofNone wrote:
provided they do not DNF.
pay up buddy
didya forget to read that part?

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1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:03pm EDT
re: read, b*tch

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read, b*tch wrote:
mictlantecuhtli wrote:
pay up buddy
didya forget to read that part?
did bekele DNF you actual idiot? sometimes I see someone so stupid I just feel sorry for them. Today that is you.

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Will Kipchoge and Bekele finish before/after the top American?

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