All respect to Valby but she’s never going to medal in any major championship if she runs even paced k’s from the front, towing faster finishers along with her as she did in the 5K. As difficult a challenge as it may be, she needs to train to surge and disrupt the tempo of those drafting on her.
Duuuuude. Shes young and will be a much better runner in the future. By then she will have her choice how to run and will do it.
All respect to Valby but she’s never going to medal in any major championship if she runs even paced k’s from the front, towing faster finishers along with her as she did in the 5K. As difficult a challenge as it may be, she needs to train to surge and disrupt the tempo of those drafting on her.
Duuuuude. Shes young and will be a much better runner in the future. By then she will have her choice how to run and will do it.
The 1500 prelims are 13 hours after the 5K final. She said herself that she probably won’t double, but she hasn’t made a final decision. If she drops the 5K, she or her sponsor don’t get to pick the replacement. Furthermore, Valby hasn’t even signed a pro contract yet, and may be listening to multiple suitors.
Wouldn't this serve as leverage for New Balance?
"Hey Valby you either sign with us or you won't go to the Olympics" as NB can make ESP stay on the 5000 team and just quit when it's race time.
More like, Hey if you slide us X$ we will make a slot for you.
Here is a crazy thought: maybe ESP’s agent Ray Flynn in exchange will want Valby to show up at Flynn’s Millrose track meet someday, in order for another of Flynn’s athletes, Tuohy, to kick Valby’s tail in a 3000m race.
Here is a crazy thought: maybe ESP’s agent Ray Flynn in exchange will want Valby to show up at Flynn’s Millrose track meet someday, in order for another of Flynn’s athletes, Tuohy, to kick Valby’s tail in a 3000m race.
lol, at this point even Taylor Roe would kick Tuohy’s tail again.
Didn't Kipyegon already announce she wants to run the 5000? Chebet will and probably Tsegay, so there could be at least 3 sub-14:10 women in the race.
And ESP will not take Valby into account at all. She will make her decision on what events to run solely on the basis of what she thinks will give her the best short for a medal.
ESP beat Tsegay at world indoors in 3k. . .
Sure, but that doesn't mean she will beat her every time they race. Since world indoors Tsegay has run 3:50 and ESP 3:56.
An out-of-shape looking Hassan easily out sprinted Cranny recently. Will she be in the 5009? Who knows.
Both the 1500 and 5000 will be tough to medal. Four Ethiopians have run under 3:56 and Welteji already beat ESP this year. I think the Ethiopians will push for a low 3:50 pace to avoid getting into a last lap dash with Kipyegen, who has beaten them every time in that scenario, and especially if Faith runs the 5000.
The 1500 prelims are 13 hours after the 5K final. She said herself that she probably won’t double, but she hasn’t made a final decision. If she drops the 5K, she or her sponsor don’t get to pick the replacement. Furthermore, Valby hasn’t even signed a pro contract yet, and may be listening to multiple suitors.
Wouldn't this serve as leverage for New Balance?
"Hey Valby you either sign with us or you won't go to the Olympics" as NB can make ESP stay on the 5000 team and just quit when it's race time.
Technically there’s an honest effort rule, but she could run 5000 tempo in 15:30, finish not close to last in her heat and not get dinged for effort, and then be fresh. It is a great negotiating card
Not sure if anyone has mentioned it but ESP implied in the post interview that she will not be doing the double in Paris. She basically said the double is impossible given the timing. If she wins the 1500 convincingly that's what she'll be doing in Paris is my guess. At 2:40 she says the schedule at OG would "make it tough" to do the double:
Not sure if anyone has mentioned it but ESP implied in the post interview that she will not be doing the double in Paris. She basically said the double is impossible given the timing. If she wins the 1500 convincingly that's what she'll be doing in Paris is my guess. At 2:40 she says the schedule at OG would "make it tough" to do the double:
I thought this too until the Trials. She nearly lost to Cranny, who has no chance. I think the 5k is still a little long for her. Meanwhile she's already gone 3:56.0 in the 1500 and has a wicked kick. The 1500 is definitely her better shot this cycle.
I'm with you on this. No American woman has ever, EVER, medaled in the 5,000 at the Olympics. It's not going to be St. Pierre this year either. For the 1,500, last year in Budapest, Hassan got bronze in 3:56.00, which is Elle's best time exactly. She will need to run her best, but she will have a shot at a medal in the 1,500. Given that it's after the 5,000, I would think she will want to put all of her efforts into that.
Mackay, MacLean and Hiltz could be in 3:57 shape right now. Let's see if St Pierre even makes the 1500 team.
Mackay, MacLean and Hiltz could be in 3:57 shape right now. Let's see if St Pierre even makes the 1500 team.
They "could be" but they aren't. And they aren't beating ESP, either.
St Pierre and Hiltz have raced the 1500/mile 15 times. Hiltz has won twice, in 2018 & 2019.
The last time they raced was at Pre. ESP beat Hiltz by over 3 1/2 seconds.
MacKay was behind Hiltz.
So: No, MacKay, MacLean or Hiltz are not going to beat ESP this year.
However, I would not be surprised if MacKay and/or MacLean beat Hiltz.
St P won't have Welteji and Hull to chase this time and frontrunning a 3:56 is risky. In a championship race 3:58 or slower, 800 speed factors in more. Mackay and MacLean just clocked 1:57.87 and 1:58.77. St P hasn't dipped below 2:00 since 2021 (1:59.99). If the pace holds around 4:00, Hiltz can close the final 200 as quick as anyone in this field. Hiltz and the NB runners enter the 1500 with fresh legs. The effect of Monday's 5k on St P is unknown.
Bottom line, if St P not on point, her chances of missing the podium are higher than you think.
All respect to Valby but she’s never going to medal in any major championship if she runs even paced k’s from the front, towing faster finishers along with her as she did in the 5K. As difficult a challenge as it may be, she needs to train to surge and disrupt the tempo of those drafting on her.
So, based on one race in which she ran the best strategy possible to have any hope, you are assuming that is the only strategy she can employ and won't learn to do anything differently as a professional, surrounded by faster runners?
Or am I reading that incorrectly.
Yes, she has to learn to shift gears but that was never the way to run in either her NCAA Title-winning races or the Olympic Trials.
Monson was a lot like Valby when she came out of college. Meanwhile she has a bagful of new tricks. These are mostly strength based, but if you are strong, you have surges, a wind up close and a decent 800m finish. If you are not a natural sprinter, however, it's tough to ever develop speed for last 100-200 meters.
IT'S easy to criticise Vallby, but as long as she keeps running 14:50 or better, she will continue to qualify for trials and big meets. Most likely she keeps improving on this time too.
WOULD you prefer that the winner came in at 15:45 and Valby finished 8th?
She did all she could just needing one of the big 3 to be off, or cramp. It almost worked.