Yared Nuguse:
What is there to say that hasn’t been said? The 2023 season Nuguse had, going from a 3:53 guy to a 3:43 guy, setting 3 American records, taking 5th in the world in inarguably his “worst” race of the season.
He’s the man to beat and in the top 3 in the world. The closest thing the US has to a “lock” to make the team, Olympic final, and best chance at a medal. The “knock” on Nuguse is not an inability to kick (he’s closed FAST races in 25s), but that he hasn’t been quite as convincing in his performances or momentum as he was in 2023. He broke onto the Professional scene with much to prove, and prove he did. After a year like that, the only way “up” is either an Olympic (gold?) medal or a world record. That pressure may be hampering him to an extent as he hasn’t seemed to have the fire or the gall to really challenge Kerr when he’s had the opportunity. I don’t see that biting him at the Trials because his fitness is simply in a different stratosphere, but it could lead to a hard-charging Hocker and Waskom to get him at the line.
Odds of winning: 60%
Odds of making the team: 80%
Cole Hocker:
Nuguse is the class of the field. That said, I’m comfortable writing that Cole Hocker is the most “complete” miler in the field. He can make teams hurt. He can run under a former Olympic record He’s shown us he knows how to race, and he knows how to win. It’s hard to say that for Nuguse, without discrediting him, it’s hard to consider something a “technical masterclass” when you’re simply better than everyone else.
What makes me excited for Hocker is we’re finally seeing what a healthy, professional him can do, from the 800 to the 5K. This is the season he wasn’t able to have in 2022 or ‘23 after his breakout NCAA stampede and Olympic debut. And he’s not disappointed: He’s set PRs in every event he’s competed in save the 1500 (although a 12:58 and a 1:45 are indicative of something big). He’s captured an indoor national title and world indoor silver narrowly missing the win to Geordie Beamish. He’s firing on all cylinders, and the only reason Nuguse is “the class of the field” is because we haven’t seen Cole crank out the 3:29 or faster he likely has in the tank.
I like his chances of making the team about as much as Yared. I give Yared, however, the slight advantage to win because we’ve seen his PRs and 3k fitness are simply a notch above, and he seems to be the only one capable of dropping a 3:30-31 from the front. In a race 3:33 or slower though, only the race will tell us who the better man is on the day.
Odds of winning: 25%
Odds of making the team: 75%
Hobbs Kessler:
Arguably my favorite on the start line. The wunderkind. The closest the American Mile has to a child star, we’ve seen the talent but also seen the blunders and growing pains of navigating the professional circuit at a young age without the NCAA racing experience.
Hobbs Kessler may be just about as talented as anyone but Nuguse, if not more. He’s right with Hocker on paper with his PRs, has the fastest 800 in the field (and has said in interviews he frequently works on speed development running sub 11 100m pace in practice), and snagged his first world medal indoors with a gutsy run expected of a competitor many years his senior. He opened his season by beating a World Champ too.
The tough thing with Kessler is the consistency, understandably for his experience level, is ALL over the place. We’ve seen him almost miss out on a spot at US indoors with some tactics miscalculations and more recently seen him DQed (?) at the LA Grand Prix and knocked out of Pre (which I was dismayed to watch live in Eugene) for forcing his way onto the inside. This makes him a bit more of a question mark.
I want him on this team. He, Hocker, and Nuguse have the ability to represent the United States, in my opinion, better than any other group of milers. But he needs to prove he’s ready on the day but staying out of trouble and ending his toxic relationship with the rail.
Odds of winning: 15%
Odds of making the team: 50%
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Cooper Teare:
I’m placing Teare in a league of his own. He’s 25 and therefore not a collegian, nor is he a veteran. It’s also a stretch to call him a “dark horse” because he’s one of three men in this field who’s won a US title.
On the plus side Teare is back with Ben Thomas whom he’s seen enormous success and showed tremendous range with a 12:54.73 in the 5K and a very slept on US Cross Country title.
He also did run 3:32 low, faster than all but Nuguse and Hocker. My issue is we’ve failed to see Cooper really dominate a 1500 or mile, arguably since his 2022 title. He’s run some fast times in time-trial esque meets. But in his highest profile performances of the year (Milrose, Bowerman), he was a non-factor and ran 3:53. Even in his win at Portland Track Fest, I would argue that he could have “dominated” that field, but won more or less in the last 50 meters. He has the talent to make this team, but he hasn’t “shown up” in a 1500 or mile meaningfully in so long that I’m hesitant to bet on him. I think he should shift his focus to the 5,000, with the 1500 as a side project/sharpener.
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The collegians:
Joe Waskom:
Very, very hard to bet against Joe. He came out of what (to me, at least) complete obscurity to win his first NCAA title in 2022 as a former steeples. He operated at the tip of the spear for all of 2033, dropping a 3:51 indoors, almost repeating as NCAA champ and then made his first World’s team after challenging Yared Nuguse at USA’s.
I was a bit worried about Joe this year. His indoor debut was markedly slower (3:54 as opposed to 3:51), and his outdoor debut has been bettered by several high schoolers this year. However, he’s proved he’s (nearly) in top shape again winning his second NCAA title with a blazing fast close.
I think his racing acumen is second to few in this race outside Hocker and Nuguse. My worry for Joe lies in both his inconsistency (I’m willing to write of some of his lackluster performance off as hard training blocks) and the fact that we’ve never seen him contend a race faster than 3:34 before, which the Trials very well could be. We do know, however, that he’ll run with abandon. And that’s why he’s my fourth pick after the big three to make the team.
Odds of winning: 10%
Team: 40%
Colin Sahlman
Winning: Long shot
Team: 15%
If I had been writing this a month or two ago, Sahlman would have been by outside pick to make the team. With a very impressive indoors, and a 3:33 NCAA lead in his outdoor debut, Sahlman has had a breakout year- proving that his amazing high school senior campaign was not his peak nor a flash in the pan.
He has more than enough speed (arguably the best in the field 400 with a 46 high at his regional meet) and the requisite strength from training at 7,000 feet. The stretch with Sahlman is his championship racing acumen. If he can’t hang on to win NCAAs in a kick, and can’t take better than 6th; he’ll need the race of his life and then some to make this team. Anything can happen, but I’m not holding my breath on his going to Paris. I’m confident, however, that he could be THE guy going into the 2028 Trials and hope he stays healthy and motivated enough to prove me right.
Winning: long shot
Team: 12.5%
Nathan Green:
Winning: slightly less long shot
Team: 15%
We know what Nathan Green is capable of at his best. He’s run 3:34 and can close like a freight train. He also trains with one of the most elite groups of milers on the planet.
He certainly has a shot on his best day to make this team, particularly in a more tactical affair. My issue is we need to see a performance like 2023 NCAAs a few more times to be able to count on it.
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The veterans and dark horses:
Centro:
You can’t count him out. He’s an Olympic Gold medalist and seems to be in the best form since 2021.
Had we seen a 3:32 or even a win over a decent field I’d feel much more confident in the staple. However, in his victory lap season in 2024, I can count on one thing: he’ll leave it all on the line if he makes the Trials Final.
Odds of winning: long shot
Odds of making the team: 10%
Henry Wynne:
Henry Wynne, while he’s never been “the man” and hasn’t had as many big moments as many of his competitors, he’s earned the forgone conclusion that he will make the final and mix it up with the best in the nation.
He almost made the World Indoors Squad and has run in the 3:34s a handful of times. He also trains with the reigning world champ and Olympic favorite in Josh Kerr. I fear that Danny Mackey’s selective racing and training schedule may work perfectly for the champ, but leave Wynne a bit flat to capitalize on his chance at an Olympic team.
Chances at winning: slim to none
Team: 5%
Sam Prakel:
Mister consistent. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride. Sam Prakel is a testament what consistency and being injury free can bring you in this sport.
He hasn’t done much in the way of low 3:30 performances or sub 3:50s, but he has US road titles and a US indoor double from last year. He is a cut above the B team and has made just about every final in memory. He has, however, always been on the outside looking in when it comes to the top of the US and the world stage. I think he has a shot to make this team given his experience and consistency in the top 8-10 of US finals, but if he does, I have a feeling it will be by the skin of his teeth.
Winning: slim to none
Making the team: 8%
Eric Holt:
My favorite movie is Rocky. There is nothing in sport or competition more satisfying than seeing a late-blooming underdog rise to the occasion and do something unthinkable.
For the third season in a row, I can’t shake the feeling that Eric Holt from Empire Elite could give us that big moment...
However, he’s completed what I believe is his first Altitude camp building a stronger engine (undeniably his weak link in a field of competent 5,000 and 3,000 runners) and almost nabbed Jake Wightman at the line.
Odds of winning: 5%
Odds of making the team: 18%
Good predictions except that the likelihoods of making the team should sum to 300%. Depending on what likelihood you assign to Teare, your likelihoods add up to somewhere around 330%, indicating about a 10% overall estimation of each individual's chances of making the team.