I think Tuohy is (maybe barely) in the top 30. Presumably Halladay-Lowry will enter either steeple or 5000 but which one? She might have a better shot at steeple. In a slowish 5000 watch Donahue who is running well.
Lowry has not entered either race yet. Delay, who I thought was a steepler, is in the 5k. Are there any other fast 5ks between now and the trials? If not she might be okay.
Will the 10,000m at the european championships be a sub 30:40 race for women and sub 27:00 for men? I highly doubt it for men, and still probably not for the women unless someone take it out real hot.
That is probably true, so what races were you thinking of when you said “unless someone gets the auto-qualifier”?
No races I can think of, I don't think the number of people with the standard will change in the next couple weeks. Maybe the US olympic trials since someone like Karissa Schweizer who once had the standard and still needs something fast might try to make it a fast race, and Valby is probably capable of it. So the combination of people capable of the standard and also needing it, with it being in Eugene and potentially decent weather for a 10,000m, could result in a sub 30:40 race at the trials. Not many other countries will have that situation in the next couple weeks.
You don't need the standard to be qualified. There are 42 people who will be in the olympics for 5,000 meters. Only 24 of the slots at the moment are possible to be filled by people with the auto-standard. So 18 or more people will make it in on ranking in the world.
The US women who are currently ranked high enough, thus being qualified if the US sends them by being in our top 3, are:
Natosha Rogers, Whittni Morgan, Allie Buchalski, Parker Valby, Abby Nichols, Emily Infeld, Kayley Delay. And a few others would slide into ranking position with a top 3 at the US championships as long as it's a reasonably fast time around 15 flat.
I don't know why people still think the only way you can qualify is by getting the auto standard. There have been so many examples of people qualifying without the standard.
So the race isn't just out of the handful of people with the auto who aren't injured, any of these several additional runners would also be qualified via ranking.
Thanks for posting this, it needed to be recognized. Valby is safely inside the rankings quota even without the 14:52 she ran 2 days ago. If that is added it will give her an unassailable cushion.
If ESP runs the 5k she’s a massive favorite to win, with Cranny feeling like a safe bet for 2nd. Schweizer should be the slight favorite for 3rd, but it’s not crazy to think Valby could gap her if she runs 14:50 in suboptimal weather. No one else (besides Kelati) has shown they could contend with what Valby did at NCAAs since (at least) Andrews ran 14:46 in January. IMO, Henes and Donaghu are next most likely to surprise with top-3 but it would mean Henes being back to her best or Donaghu running the race of her life (she’s been on a roll all year and can finish fast).
Thanks for posting this, it needed to be recognized. Valby is safely inside the rankings quota even without the 14:52 she ran 2 days ago. If that is added it will give her an unassailable cushion.
If ESP runs the 5k she’s a massive favorite to win, with Cranny feeling like a safe bet for 2nd. Schweizer should be the slight favorite for 3rd, but it’s not crazy to think Valby could gap her if she runs 14:50 in suboptimal weather. No one else (besides Kelati) has shown they could contend with what Valby did at NCAAs since (at least) Andrews ran 14:46 in January. IMO, Henes and Donaghu are next most likely to surprise with top-3 but it would mean Henes being back to her best or Donaghu running the race of her life (she’s been on a roll all year and can finish fast).
I agree that ESP, Cranny, and Schweizer/Valby are probably the top 3. Regardless of the others, you need to be absolutely 100% in top form and in peak shape preferably with some races under your belt to get to the top 3. Not all mentioned will make that cut.
Also, Valby just solo'd a 14:52 a copule days after a 31:40 10,000m. With an olympic spot on the line and other people to draft off for part of the race, I'd think she could run 14:40's and make the team. She also ran her 30:50 ish 10,000m largely by herself. I think she could reasonably make both teams. In the 10,000m however there are fewer spots that go to ranking athletes, so her qualification is not for certain if she doesn't run the 30:40 at the trials, but if she runs another sub 31 with the bonus points she should be one of the first couple in on ranking, giving her a spot as long as a few more athletes don't suddenly hit the auto from other countries.
This is America. I don't see that many people doing good at the championship. Honestly imo the safest bet for Valby is to run both races. No way I see more than 5 people breaking 15. If she hammers 14:3x-40 pace. Only Cranny and ESP would be there remaining. I love Andrews but that's what broke her last year if I remember correctly. Biggest x Factors to me are how kickers will do at 1440 pace this year
Valby should skip the 5 and focus on the 10. Valby is a lock in the 10. The 5 is a question mark and both a prelim and a final (with legit shoes) and the amount of racing she has done could destroy her for the 10.
Will the 10,000m at the european championships be a sub 30:40 race for women and sub 27:00 for men? I highly doubt it for men, and still probably not for the women unless someone take it out real hot.
Well, the last Euro championship 10,000m was won in a faster time than the standard. Yasemin Can ran 30:32.57 and Eilish McColgan was close with a 30:41.05. That was only the fourth time the winning time was faster than the standard, after 1986, 2002 and 2006. There are women in the race that like to push the pace and run fast times like Megan Keith in this year's race though. I wouldn't be surprised to see her try to hammer it like Eilish tried to for the win.
To me, it appeared as though Valby was going all-out that last lap at NCAA Champs. She could perhaps get down to 68 or 67 in a high-stakes race. Looking at the data, the top athletes look to be running 65 or faster on their final laps.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Valby's challenge will be is she needs pace to be as fast as possible, but that means she will basically act as pacer for at least 3 who are likely capable of same time (and faster final lap) as she is.
Josette Andrews has the Olympic standard with a 14:46 indoors. She definitely has to be on the short list for the 2024 team.
5k is going to be very competitive at the trials. Kelati, ESP, Cranny, Schweizer and Valby are all going to be in the hunt. Valby is a bit of a unknown quantity in that she has not raced a national championship or an international race. But we have seen many times when someone wearing college gear has taken an Olympic spot at the trials.
Agree. I'm surprised to say but I actually think it will be closer than what the data shows; Cranny and Schweizer haven't shown to be in the same shape as when they closed in 63 and 64. And I would place Valby's 14:52 'solo' on par with Andrews' 14:46.
This may be the most competitive distance at the trials on the women's side.
Not sure what the best strategy would be for Valby.
Josette Andrews has the Olympic standard with a 14:46 indoors. She definitely has to be on the short list for the 2024 team.
5k is going to be very competitive at the trials. Kelati, ESP, Cranny, Schweizer and Valby are all going to be in the hunt. Valby is a bit of an unknown quantity in that she has not raced a national championship or an international race. But we have seen many times when someone wearing college gear has taken an Olympic spot at the trials.
Sorry but January was a long time ago and it’s clear Andrews has been injured all spring. Missing or withdrawing from meets. Total question mark. and therefore not on any short list right now like the other 4 mentioned (and others).
I just finally watched the Portland Track Festival 5000m race. Contrary to the reports of gail-force winds (lol), I did not see any disturbance trackside; there seemed to actually be a chill, with some bystanders in long-sleeve heavy shirts, so the confitions were ideal for racing.
Therefore, based upon the visual results of that race and what Valby accomplished at Natty’s, I now whole-heartedly support Valby racing the 5000m at the OlyTrials!
The BTC gals fully revealed their hand in going for the Olympic Standard in that race. The hay is in the barn, and there is not going to be some magical increase in fitness between now and the 5000m at the Trials. (That ain’t happening, unless syringes and/or blood bags are resorted to.)
Josette Andrews has the Olympic standard with a 14:46 indoors. She definitely has to be on the short list for the 2024 team.
5k is going to be very competitive at the trials. Kelati, ESP, Cranny, Schweizer and Valby are all going to be in the hunt. Valby is a bit of a unknown quantity in that she has not raced a national championship or an international race. But we have seen many times when someone wearing college gear has taken an Olympic spot at the trials.
There is nothing to indicate that Josette is healthy right now, unfortunately.
I just finally watched the Portland Track Festival 5000m race. Contrary to the reports of gail-force winds (lol), I did not see any disturbance trackside; there seemed to actually be a chill, with some bystanders in long-sleeve heavy shirts, so the confitions were ideal for racing.
Therefore, based upon the visual results of that race and what Valby accomplished at Natty’s, I now whole-heartedly support Valby racing the 5000m at the OlyTrials!
The BTC gals fully revealed their hand in going for the Olympic Standard in that race. The hay is in the barn, and there is not going to be some magical increase in fitness between now and the 5000m at the Trials. (That ain’t happening, unless syringes and/or blood bags are resorted to.)
This is “The Summer of Valbymania”.
Schweizer and Cranny at least demonstrated health in that race. If they are healthy, Valby may be able to run with them, but he isn't beating them. Nobody in the US is outkicking Cranny in a 5K race right now unless somehow ESP is in the race and still with her at the end.
I just finally watched the Portland Track Festival 5000m race. Contrary to the reports of gail-force winds (lol), I did not see any disturbance trackside; there seemed to actually be a chill, with some bystanders in long-sleeve heavy shirts, so the confitions were ideal for racing.
Therefore, based upon the visual results of that race and what Valby accomplished at Natty’s, I now whole-heartedly support Valby racing the 5000m at the OlyTrials!
The BTC gals fully revealed their hand in going for the Olympic Standard in that race. The hay is in the barn, and there is not going to be some magical increase in fitness between now and the 5000m at the Trials. (That ain’t happening, unless syringes and/or blood bags are resorted to.)
Watch live as some of the top U.S. and international runners compete in the "hot window" at the Portland Track Festival at Lincoln High School, featuring the...
I just finally watched the Portland Track Festival 5000m race. Contrary to the reports of gail-force winds (lol), I did not see any disturbance trackside; there seemed to actually be a chill, with some bystanders in long-sleeve heavy shirts, so the confitions were ideal for racing.
Therefore, based upon the visual results of that race and what Valby accomplished at Natty’s, I now whole-heartedly support Valby racing the 5000m at the OlyTrials!
The BTC gals fully revealed their hand in going for the Olympic Standard in that race. The hay is in the barn, and there is not going to be some magical increase in fitness between now and the 5000m at the Trials. (That ain’t happening, unless syringes and/or blood bags are resorted to.)
This is “The Summer of Valbymania”.
Schweizer and Cranny at least demonstrated health in that race. If they are healthy, Valby may be able to run with them, but he isn't beating them. Nobody in the US is outkicking Cranny in a 5K race right now unless somehow ESP is in the race and still with her at the end.
ESP’s 1500m PR is almost 3 seconds faster than Cranny’s. Their 5000m PRs are 1 second apart.
I feel like ESP is solidly ahead of Cranny at the end of a 5000.
To me, it appeared as though Valby was going all-out that last lap at NCAA Champs. She could perhaps get down to 68 or 67 in a high-stakes race. Looking at the data, the top athletes look to be running 65 or faster on their final laps.
This is fantastic data but there’s no way of knowing if Rogers or Infeld could have run 14:52 in 82F, which would make the last lap splits a moot point.
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