Runners don’t always improve equally across the full range of events as they mature. A kid with elite high school range from 800 through 5k XC isn’t necessarily going to progress to world class range from 800-10,000. If Sahlman was destined to be a 5k runner, I think he’d have done better in XC and 3k/5k races in college already. His 13:38.96 was a quality win but overall his distance performances have been pretty “meh” for a guy with his HS credentials and mid-distance results.
I won’t be surprised if he eventually runs 13:0X (I’d say I expect it), but his 800 and 1500 times at that point will be much better than 13:0X/5k, and I doubt he’ll ever run a meaningful 10k on the track.
I still think Sahlman could be world class in the 5k. He was at least as good at XC as Nico was in HS. I assumed the reason he did so poorly in XC, and so well in mid-d, was because Smith was trying to expand from only having 5k/10k guys, so Colin got a bit more mid-d focused training and a bit less XC training. That thought was reinforced when Aaron ran a 400m PB in his first indoor race after XC. I don't have any insider info though.
Remember, Geordie Beamish won a mile title at NAU, but he (and Smith) saw himself as a 3k/5k guy. The only reason he was in the mile was because he didn't get a 3k qualifier, and his like 4:08 at altitude qualified him for the mile. I think Smith realized he had Bosley and Young to take care of long distance events (they hold CRs from 3k-10k btw), and the Sahlmans probably wanted to keep focusing on 800/1500s, so it worked out.
I agree that I wouldn't be surprised if he only ran 13:0x, but that's only if he never gives it a real shot (a la Centro). If he went all in on longer distances, I'd be surprised if he wasn't at least in the low 12:50s.
I get Coe/Cram/that other british guy from around then mixed up, but I've been saying for a while that we should have more guys like them. I think Brazier could've fit that mold if he'd raced the 1500 more (during covid he ran 3:35 closing in I think 52 and it looked easy).
It's too early to say if 1:41 is on the table for Sahlman, but I'm starting to think he could be like Clayton Murphy, albeit maybe more 1500 focused than 800 focused. a 1:42 high or 1:43 low wouldn't shock me in the next 2-3 years, although I'd expect 3:29 from him before that. If he runs 1:43 this year I will be saying Mike Smith is the second coming of Christ (the first being Sean Brosnan ofc).
Can we pump the brakes a bit on the 800 potential here? 1:41? Neils Laros ran a full second faster at 800 last year than Sahlman and I don’t even really see that sort of talk about him in the 800. I think the idea is he could become a 1:42mid/3:27 guy perhaps. Sahlman certainly is more of an 800/1500 guy than we’ve seen of late, but he more resembles a higher-upside Engels as far as how I’d view his 800 prospects. Engels topped out at 1:44.6/3:33.6x. I could see 1:43hi/3:29 for Sahlman which is distinct from Hocker, Nuguse, Mario, Hoare but in line with the speedier guys who can run a fast 800.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Can we pump the brakes a bit on the 800 potential here? 1:41? Neils Laros ran a full second faster at 800 last year than Sahlman and I don’t even really see that sort of talk about him in the 800. I think the idea is he could become a 1:42/3:27 guy perhaps. Sahlman certainly is more of an 800/1500 guy than we’ve seen of late, but he more resembles a higher-upside Engels as far as how I’d view his 800 prospects. Engels topped out at 1:44.6/3:33.6x. I could see 1:43hi/3:29 for Sahlman which is distinct from Hocker, Nuguse, Mario, Hoare but in line with the speedier guys who can run a fast 800.
"CaN wE pUmP tHe BrEaKs" proceeds to give the same predictions I did
I literally said it's too early to know if 1:41 is realistic. Is that not pumping the breaks on 1:41?
Edit: Wait I also said it would take the 2nd coming of Christ for him to run 1:43 this year what should I have said instead lmao
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
He’s run 1:45.57 at age 20 and this thread is about a 46.9 400m split. I don’t see why he can’t run 1:43 in 2-3 years, which would obviously qualify as professional.
Willis’s lifetime PR was 1:45.54, for clarity. Centro didn’t run faster than 1:45.86 until he was 25.
If you check the all-time 800m list, many of them improved less than second, or not at all, after their age 20 season.
I once spent an entire summer on the all-time 800m list. Worst vacation ever.
Of the 20 American men to run sub-1:44, 17 of them improved their 800 PBs by over a second after their age 20 season.
(The exceptions are Earl Jones, John Marshall, and most recently Jose Parrilla 30+ years ago.)
Can we pump the brakes a bit on the 800 potential here? 1:41? Neils Laros ran a full second faster at 800 last year than Sahlman and I don’t even really see that sort of talk about him in the 800. I think the idea is he could become a 1:42mid/3:27 guy perhaps. Sahlman certainly is more of an 800/1500 guy than we’ve seen of late, but he more resembles a higher-upside Engels as far as how I’d view his 800 prospects. Engels topped out at 1:44.6/3:33.6x. I could see 1:43hi/3:29 for Sahlman which is distinct from Hocker, Nuguse, Mario, Hoare but in line with the speedier guys who can run a fast 800.
I genuinely apologize for being a pedant, THOUGHTSLEADER, but I notice you always spell it “Neils Laros” when his name is Niels.
Can we pump the brakes a bit on the 800 potential here? 1:41? Neils Laros ran a full second faster at 800 last year than Sahlman and I don’t even really see that sort of talk about him in the 800. I think the idea is he could become a 1:42/3:27 guy perhaps. Sahlman certainly is more of an 800/1500 guy than we’ve seen of late, but he more resembles a higher-upside Engels as far as how I’d view his 800 prospects. Engels topped out at 1:44.6/3:33.6x. I could see 1:43hi/3:29 for Sahlman which is distinct from Hocker, Nuguse, Mario, Hoare but in line with the speedier guys who can run a fast 800.
"CaN wE pUmP tHe BrEaKs" proceeds to give the same predictions I did
I literally said it's too early to know if 1:41 is realistic. Is that not pumping the breaks on 1:41?
Edit: Wait I also said it would take the 2nd coming of Christ for him to run 1:43 this year what should I have said instead lmao
He estimated a max of 1:43-high, while you said you won’t be surprised by 1:42-high. Not exactly the same. He also didn’t alternate capital and lower case letters, and I can’t understand why you did except to be sorta douchey.
Can we pump the brakes a bit on the 800 potential here? 1:41? Neils Laros ran a full second faster at 800 last year than Sahlman and I don’t even really see that sort of talk about him in the 800. I think the idea is he could become a 1:42mid/3:27 guy perhaps. Sahlman certainly is more of an 800/1500 guy than we’ve seen of late, but he more resembles a higher-upside Engels as far as how I’d view his 800 prospects. Engels topped out at 1:44.6/3:33.6x. I could see 1:43hi/3:29 for Sahlman which is distinct from Hocker, Nuguse, Mario, Hoare but in line with the speedier guys who can run a fast 800.
I genuinely apologize for being a pedant, THOUGHTSLEADER, but I notice you always spell it “Neils Laros” when his name is Niels.
Like Jakob’s last name it might take me a few years to get it right…25% of the time.
"CaN wE pUmP tHe BrEaKs" proceeds to give the same predictions I did
I literally said it's too early to know if 1:41 is realistic. Is that not pumping the breaks on 1:41?
Edit: Wait I also said it would take the 2nd coming of Christ for him to run 1:43 this year what should I have said instead lmao
JWH covered it. But I think 1:41 is outlandish as a goal for his career at this point and 1:42 probably is too. I was talking about 1:43high as a long-term goal. Honestly if Sahlman runs 1:43 or even 1:44 this year it would probably mean that he ran it at USAs AND I’d put it more of a sign that his natural speed has been underestimated than the coaching prowess of Mike Smith. I have tons of respect for him but he is intentionally training Sahlman as a 1500 guy and having him run 400s as a side thing. This is to say 800m coaching/specific training exists, but I don’t think that is what’s happening here. Ditto Nathan Green of UW.
He's a pure middle distance guy now. His longer races (3k+) have been underwhelming but that could be because of his weight/muscle gain. He does look like he filled out more at NAU than in HS.
His dad is a muscular dude so he maybe just be still coming into his body. Aaron is def bigger now.
I get Coe/Cram/that other british guy from around then mixed up, but I've been saying for a while that we should have more guys like them. I think Brazier could've fit that mold if he'd raced the 1500 more (during covid he ran 3:35 closing in I think 52 and it looked easy).
It's too early to say if 1:41 is on the table for Sahlman, but I'm starting to think he could be like Clayton Murphy, albeit maybe more 1500 focused than 800 focused. a 1:42 high or 1:43 low wouldn't shock me in the next 2-3 years, although I'd expect 3:29 from him before that. If he runs 1:43 this year I will be saying Mike Smith is the second coming of Christ (the first being Sean Brosnan ofc).
Can we pump the brakes a bit on the 800 potential here? 1:41? Neils Laros ran a full second faster at 800 last year than Sahlman and I don’t even really see that sort of talk about him in the 800. I think the idea is he could become a 1:42mid/3:27 guy perhaps. Sahlman certainly is more of an 800/1500 guy than we’ve seen of late, but he more resembles a higher-upside Engels as far as how I’d view his 800 prospects. Engels topped out at 1:44.6/3:33.6x. I could see 1:43hi/3:29 for Sahlman which is distinct from Hocker, Nuguse, Mario, Hoare but in line with the speedier guys who can run a fast 800.
listen, in fairness, a 46.8 relay split for a 20 year old 1500 runner is nuts. How many guys with similar times could do that at the same age?
Wow a lot of commotion stirred up here since I posted this.
I think I need to make something clear lol. I am not expecting for Sahlman to be running 1:41 or 3:47 anytime soon. But I do think that when Sahlman is at his absolute greatest, he has potential to be like Coe. Just maybe.
I also do believe that Sahlman is much more of a 1500/mile guy than he is pure 800. He will be breaking 3:50 in the mile for sure, and any professional 800 time he'd run would likely be a byproduct. I think for sure he'll run something like 1:43 or better at his best., but who knows.
Ultimately it's still way too early to make these comparisons and I honestly just can see Sahlman being like Coe as he improves further and further in the far future.
He'll need to be closer to 45 to make the USA 4x400. He's not even in the ballpark.
Okay? No one was talking about him running the 4x4 but it’s kind of amazing that a former high school national cross country champion even was briefly discussed by a letsrun poster as having an outside shot at the Olympic 4x4 team
Of course Colin can’t make the US 4x4 squad. Can you imagine the Olympic announcers going:
“And now Matthew Boling passes the baton to the 2021 runninglane cross country champion Colin Sahlman”
That being said Colin has a considerable shot at both the 800m and 1500m team
How tf was the op’s humor lost on you and so many others
JWH covered it. But I think 1:41 is outlandish as a goal for his career at this point and 1:42 probably is too. I was talking about 1:43high as a long-term goal. Honestly if Sahlman runs 1:43 or even 1:44 this year it would probably mean that he ran it at USAs AND I’d put it more of a sign that his natural speed has been underestimated than the coaching prowess of Mike Smith. I have tons of respect for him but he is intentionally training Sahlman as a 1500 guy and having him run 400s as a side thing. This is to say 800m coaching/specific training exists, but I don’t think that is what’s happening here. Ditto Nathan Green of UW.
mmm i think i basically agree, except I don't think 1:42 is an outlandish goal for his career. Definitely a high goal, but he's been exceeding expectations for a whole lotta years now. What'd your Nico Young predictions look like in 2019? I think even I wasn't predicting him to be sub-13/27 at age 21.
Amen on training him as a 1500 guy, although I feel like with the amount of 400s/800s he does, and the fact that Aaron seemed pretty focused on the 800 his senior year and still went to NAU, that Smith is trying to get them to the point they're nationally competitive in the 800. Maybe not a real 800/1500 guy like Coe, but more like what Wightman has where he can win WCs in the 1500 (best event) and the DL 800 (not his best but still top tier).