Could you outrun a thousand random people of the same age and gender as you?

Yes easily. I’d even take 1000 random letsrunners. I know 95% of yall are old heads who maybe broke 5 one time in the 1980s.

I think your assumptions are wrong. Given the small number of people that actually run road races, there are likely many 18-35 athletes in the remaining 99.9% of the population who compete in other sports (professional and recreational) that could potentially run sub-17 but don't race.

Disagree.

We know that most people are fat and slow. Everyone accounts for that.

There are two issues that I see in these responses:

1) LetsRun posters WAY overestimating themselves, compared to 1,000 people that would include some decent runners and athletes. I'm not convinced that the posters here could hold off this group for an hour, let alone for 24 hours. I'd bet there are some people in the 1,000 that would straight-up blow the doors off half the posters here.

2) One poster said that in a "random" group you would have "at most" about 2 runners. That's wrong. In randomly drawn populations, strange occurrences are to be expected. As easily as you could have very few good runners, you could also have a few 2:20 to 2:30 marathoners and an ultramarathoner or reasonable Ironman finisher.

1 in 1000 Americans is 330,000 people - roughly 165,000 males and 165,000 females.

Do you think that there are that many accomplished runners in the U.S. when you include all age groups? I highly doubt it.

I would not take the bet because 24 hours is a long ass time and I'd get bored after the first few hours

The premise is that the runners are the same age and gender as you. Let's say you are a 24-year-old male. In 1,000 people of that same demographic, there easily could be many that are faster than the average LetsRun poster. Or there are enough that can run a hard 800 to 1600 meters that the poster is over-taxed and is caught later.

I'll add:

I think people have a certain perspective because of our ego, and from behind a keyboard we can dial up a "win" however we want.

So, let's not make it about "you." Let's make it about other LetsRun posters.

You can bet on the average LetsRun poster, sight unseen, against 1,000 people in his demographic.

OR, you can bet on the 1,000 chasers (sight unseen), starting only 100 meters back in a 24-hour race and they have time to conspire before the race begins.

Nobody in their right mind would bet on some other LetsRun poster.

And if there is an over/under, I bet they are caught within 20 minutes.

Yep! Easy peasy kid.

I'm a 44 yo male with over 40 400, 800, mile, 5k, and marathon performances of 59s, 2:10, 4:41 16:20, and 2:39.

If I had horrible luck I could conceivably be grouped with a 50 second 400 runner, a 1:55 800 runner, a 4:20 miler. a 15:00 5k runner and a sub 2:25 marathoner. With a 100m lead, I would get caught by either the miler or the 5k runner no matter how I paced my effort.

However ,there were about 2.8 million HS graduates per year in the mid 90s. That means there are about 1.4 million American males my age right now.

So a sample size of 1000 equals 1/1400 of the total 44 yo male population. That means, I've got even odds the best runners in my field are no better than the 700th overall runner in any one event. I'm not sure if thats the best way to analyze it statistically but go with that for the moment.

I'd guesstimate the 700th best times for 44 yo runners right now off the couch with no add'l training allowed as something like:

400-58

800-2:15

Mile- 5:20

5k - 18:00

Marathon 3:00

So with a 100 m headstart I would need to run a 75/75 800 to just barely stay in front of the 400/800 guys, then run 6:00 pace through 5k to stay ahead of the miler and the 5k runner and then average 6:55 miles to stay ahead of the marathoner.

I'd take that bet against a "typical" field.

I'd probably lose about 5% of the time against random draws with better runners if I had to run it blind without knowing my competitors' abilities. Give me do or die wavelight pacing based on the field's abilities and I think I could get my execution odds down to around 1%.

I am going to ignore the 24 hr part of the hypothetical because its really just asking if I could outrun a so-so middle aged ultramarathoner. The answer to that is nobody cares about ultras.

Pronghorns aren't antelopes.

I'm 58 so I expect my chase pack would be very much slower that the 38 year old guys. For once being an old fukc might be a benefit.

I agree that age makes a big difference. I'm in my late 40s and can break 5 and run in the 17:40s. I think I'd go for it.

I would hang with you in the background until the last minute then pass you. I wouldn’t even take the money, but would be priceless to see the expression on your face before you are shot.

That million would be a nice retirement gift. Sorry to see you shot, but I’d catch you by 5k if not slightly before or after. It’d be nice having the better part of 999 people who were seriously indebted to me for changing their lives financially.

It's a silly hypothetical on a message board. It's sad you're 48 and don't understand that people like to have fun on the internet. Get a grip, old man.

I'm 36, can still break 2 for 800m, and have plenty of aerobic strength. I'll take this bet. Unless I get really unlucky, I think I've got this won.

The 800 guys can hold back, but almost by definition, the sprinters have to go all-out from the start.

If Usain Bolt were in peak shape and started 100m behind me, the only hope he has of catching me is to go out at his 400m pace. And my sprint times are currently better than my distance times. I think I can run a 58" 400 now, might be able to squeeze out a 5:15 mile, and would struggle to run a mid-19 5K.

Bolt's strategy for beating me would be taking it out hard, not trying to stretch it out for a mile or so. If he doesn't pass me within the first minute, he never will.

Yeah, but that $100 million does look pretty sweet.

I wouldn't take the bet in my current condition, but I'd jump on it if I could time-travel back to 2015 and be as fast as I was in back then. It'll be a chase pack of 1,000 other 23 year old men against me in 4:27 mile shape. There are almost no serious marathoners or ultra runners at that age, and I'd easily be able to handle the sprinters. The mid-distance and distance runners would be more of a challenge, but a randomly selected group of 1000 young men from the general population and not from a college campus probably wouldn't have anyone that could break 4:50.