What kind of contract/group does a very good (but not great) guy end up with coming out of the NCAA?

My guess ! wrote:

Hypothetical contract fact-finder wrote:

Here are their stats:

-NXN top-10 and 4:07/8:49 in HS, but not a "name brand" and no world juniors accolades

-6-time NCAA All-American (twice each in cross, indoor, and outdoor)

-Best NCAA track finish: 3rd in the 5,000m indoors (junior year)

-Best NCAA XC finish: 9th (senior year)

-PRs: 3:42/7:53/13:30/28:06

-Ran for a state flagship P5 school (in their home state), but not one that competes for national titles in any season

-4,000 Instagram followers

-Personable and decent-looking, gives fine-but-not-inspired interviews

-No huge injury red flags, but did miss some time and not make NCAA outdoors junior year

What pro groups are recruiting this runner, and what kind of contract offers (if any) would he get coming out of school in 2024? (And is anything else beyond the above relevant to knowing that?)

Curious to know who this athlete is. I suppose they ran these times from 2000-2019 bc a 13:30 guy finishing 3rd at NCAA 5k / 9th in XC is pretty rare now !

It’s hard to gauge nowadays because times are much faster, but from people I know, an NCAA podium in track / top 10 in XC should get you about 40-50 base with incentives (ranging in difficulty of course) up to 100k.

without those NCAA placings, probably 20k ish as 13:30/28:06 are not that notables nowadays. You’d probably need to move up to the roads for more support.