What is Hobbs Kessler?

I seem to recall someone from New Zealand who had the slowest 200m time in the Olympic final, yet outkicked everyone in the 800m. At the end of a race, it is all about who has the most left in the tank. Hobbs has the wheels, and I think he will do just fine as things progress.

Ovett is an other example. When he was in his prime, he seemed to be almost jogging, relative to the rest of the field. Then he would let loose.

There is absolutely no evidence to back up this statement.

worldathletics.org

800 Metres - men - senior - all

Link:worldathletics.org/records/all-time-to...

NCAA 800 times are also weaker since 2018.

...800 meter runners typically choose 200-400 meter spikes!

...sorry, I thought you were saying the opposite.

Indeed, 800 times are not at all effected by super shoes

1:45/13:10 sounds like Alan Webb, who by the way was a 1:46 runner until 2007 when he ran 1:43.84, the only year he broke 1:46. Doing some training with Bryce Hoppel would probably make just about anyone think that 1:43 800m is genetic given how slow he trains, at least in the videos I recall of him doing 800s in 2:10-2:15 as if that was about all he could do. But that doesn't mean that years of gradually improving in workouts won't get a guy with excellent speed and aerobic ability like Kessler to that level. So, 3:29-30/3:46 seems eminently reasonable for this guy, maybe better.

This is the workout I was thinking of, from 2019. 3x800, 2x400, 800, 2x400.

He runs 2:16 (67/69), 2:12 (30-31 to 64/68), 2:16, 61 (looks slow--he makes it look like nothing, but he is tired after it), 62 (again, looks like he is jogging), 2:16 (he's on the ground afterward; it was hot that day), 60, 59.

His coach then (not sure if still), Michael Whittlesey of Kansas, says that they recognized he was a different type of 800m runner, an aerobic guy, and so they don't do "a ton" of speedwork. He just has "to trust" that his competitiveness in a race situation will allow him to run a lot faster. He went on to run 1:43 and barely miss out on bronze at World's that year.

Compare the kind of workout we'd see from a guy only 1.6 seconds faster, Seb Coe, something like 2 flat going down to 1:52 uphill. That's why I say that training with Hoppel would make you think 1:43 800m was a genetic thing.

Yep, this was my guess too.

But WHY is Hobbes Kessler?

Hobbs thinks therefore Hobbs am

Hobbes Kessler is a fine rye whiskey made in the backwoods of Tennessee.

He is a professional runner

is it my imagination or is his leg speed/cadence just faster than other milers? Has not even focused on 800. He’s at least as fast as Clayton Murphy so sub 1:43 is achievable.

What are you basing that claim on?

Clayton Murphy ran a 45.8 FAT 4x4 split in college and has a 47.x open FAT 400.

If I had to guess , Kessler would run 49.x in an open 400 and maybe 48.x on a 4x4 split. Maybe Kessler will hit some quick 400/ 800 times in the near future but I'm not holding my breath.

If you had to guess career trajectories and comparable athletes, here's where I'd go with it:

Hobbs Kessler --> Nick Willis: Pure milers, but Kessler is going to evolve and push the training more (altitude/threshold) under the same coach. He also is more competitive (looking to win) as far as as a racer. I think the ceiling is higher, but the competition may sometimes be deeper or smarter (tactically).

Cole Hocker --> Matthew Centrowitz: Tactical masters with a reliable and well-timed finish. Can run very good times above in the 3/5000 and below in the 800, but may never pop the biggest time or placing in a drag-race Diamond League.

As far as the other phenoms, Neils Laros and Tim Cheruiyot share many similarities. Tim made the World Final at age 19 and similarly ran super-aggressively. They both have great 800m ability and promise with good natural aerobic strength on moderate mileage.

Cameron Myers seems very Jakob-esque, but has been shielded a bit more from competition until this year. I think he may ultimately show huge upside in the 5000 as well, but he hasn't given it a go.

Reynold Cheruiyot is maybe more on the Faith Kipyegon/Asbel Kiprop side of things (not saying he will be the GOAT or get mixed up in doping ha). Many Kenyan 1500m runners (Ngeny, Kipsang, Tim, Obiri) come from more of a speed (800m) background than him or Faith who both showed early they were excellent 8K XC runners. He seems pretty committed to the 1500, but is an excellent 5,000m prospect if he wants to be.

Objective analyses often miss the history behind the numbers. Jakob was a prodigy trained with pro runners by a great coach from age 8 and trained as a pro from age 14. Hobbs Kessler came to the sport late from rock climbing, which he continued to do, and did not really get much into the training until his junior year of high school when I believe he started working with Ron Warhurst and his group of pro runners. That was 2020 when COVID hit and he may have run a time trial of 4:08 in June. The following year he already ran 3:34 and beat even the college record at the time. Now that is a talent.

These comparisons really don't work at all.

Niels Laros is not a front-runner type like Timothy Cheruiyot and it's doubtful that Tim was really as young as Laros when he burst onto the scene. Laros is really talented at the 800m at his age, but he is still about 1.6 seconds slower in the 800m than Tim and he may not get to 1:43 low, as he is also pretty good at 3k/5k, which Tim has had no success at to this point.

Cole Hocker is no Matt Centrowitz, nor Matt Cole. Matt won outdoor medals starting his junior year in college not because he had an explosive kick in slow races but because he was a master at positioning, like Bernard Lagat, always in perfect position in slow races to go with the leaders, never a mistake until late in his career. He was smooth, never showing effort even at 50 second pace in his 3:50 Olympic gold. Cole is all over the place in his form, which is not smooth at all. He is an explosive kicker in slow races, making everything happen from the back usually in the last 100-150m, not too dissimilar from Beamish who has even better acceleration. Historically, he would not be perfectly positioned but would be boxed. He did much better at World Indoor but was still boxed until late and was very patient and left the box when he got the chance. He is already close in time, with super shoes, to Centro's best time, but will likely go a lot faster and be more competitive in fast races.

Finally, Hobbs Kessler may be in Nick Willis's old group, but he is not very much like Nick Willis. Kessler has already done a front-run to a World indoor medal. Nick Willis would never lead or almost never, stay in excellent position drafting, and then clean up the lesser medals and places at the end in his best races (against multiple dopers). He was a good 800m runner for this generation of 1500m runners but he never had the kind of speed that Hobbs has. Hobbs closed a Michigan in 50 and he will be a better 800m runner than Nick. He will also get a lot more out of his potential at 3k and maybe 5k than Nick did, despite his high mileage. The mileage is another major difference between them. Hobbs is not yet comfortable with high mileage, while Nick ran many 100-120 mile weeks and he did regular long runs that were nearly twice the length of Hobbs' longest current run.

hahahaha dude did you really type this 5 months ago?

Uhhh, Kessler shocked everybody with his 1:43.xx Oly Trial 800 performance so I'll admit I was wrong on his 800 potential

In a global 1500 final, Kessler didn't break 3:28, Kerr and Hocker did outkick him, and JI and Nuguse also beat him to the line so I was right on that.

All that said, Kessler shattered what I thought his ceiling was, so good on him and I hope he does well going forward.