Josh Kerr vs Yared Nuguse at World Indoors

osm wrote:

Peach Pit wrote:

He's the 1500m world champ, I'd expect him to want a slower pace regardless of whether or not he just broke the 2mile WR. In fact, I think a fast race (<7:30) is probably worse for him than a 7:40 race. Barega and Girma are gonna fare way better if it's fast.

Nuguse might be better positioned than Kerr to win tbh. He ran 13:02 on his first try, and ran a 3:47 mile a week later (with a big kick). He was better than Kerr all of last year, except WCs, when he way underperformed. Kerr did just break a WR, while Nuguse missed his, but I agree that Kerr wouldn't have run nearly as fast without Fisher. If Yared had someone to chase from 800-1200, I think he'd be closer to 3:45. Either way, they're both so good, I don't think there's a clear favorite.

I think 8:00 from the 1500m world champion makes Kerr the favorite in a fast or a slow race. Agreed that Nuguse left a second or two on the table at Millrose, but he has yet to prove himself over longer distances at this level, 13:02 really isn't in the same class. Nuguse or Barega are definitely capable of winning though, while Girma doesn't seem to be in the shape he was in last year.

objectiveobserver wrote:

osm wrote:

I think 8:00 from the 1500m world champion makes Kerr the favorite in a fast or a slow race. Agreed that Nuguse left a second or two on the table at Millrose, but he has yet to prove himself over longer distances at this level, 13:02 really isn't in the same class. Nuguse or Barega are definitely capable of winning though, while Girma doesn't seem to be in the shape he was in last year.

+1
I agree that Kerr after his 8 WB in the 2 mile must be the favorite. None of the Ethiopians will be able to run away from him and he will be the strongest in the finish (Jakob has outsprinted the East Africans in all distances from the mile to the 5000m the last 3 years, so Kerr must be able to do the same at least up to the 2mile).
I also think that Kerr has shown better shape than Nuguse this year. If Kerr has run the mile instead of the 2 mile he would probably have broken the indoors mile WR.
But I consider Nuguse the favorite for the silver. I also think he can finish faster than the Ethiopians.
If Girma, however, can come close to his WR shape in the indoor 3000m in Glasgow that could change the scenario.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

osm wrote:

I think 8:00 from the 1500m world champion makes Kerr the favorite in a fast or a slow race. Agreed that Nuguse left a second or two on the table at Millrose, but he has yet to prove himself over longer distances at this level, 13:02 really isn't in the same class. Nuguse or Barega are definitely capable of winning though, while Girma doesn't seem to be in the shape he was in last year.

I don’t think it goes without saying that Kerr could run faster than 13:02 for 5k; I’d actually guess he’s right there. The 7:28 Nuguse ran last indoor season has been mentioned, and I really believe that if he’d run the 3k at the DL final instead of a 3:43.97 mile, he’d have been there at the finish in 7:23/7:24. These two are pretty dang close from 800m to 5k IMO, with Kerr obviously the more accomplished athlete so far, while Nuguse owns the best mark between the two of them with his 3:43.97 mile.