Sound Running's The TEN on the Horizon (3/16)

As far as US women getting the standard, Kelati. That's it.

Yihune is listed in the Laredo 10K so I think we can scrap him from this.

Sam Parsons will rock the 1,500

Might be wishful thinking but I think Schweizer has a chance given her talent level. She posted clips of herself running fast on a track a month ago so maybe she’s a little further along than suspected. Otherwise I think the full list will be: Gebreselama, Monson, Kelati, Warner-Judd, Galvan.

For men: Fisher, Almgren, Ahmed, Wildschutt, Young.

Now, who goes with Monson in her attempt to run 29:45? Gebreselama? Maybe Kelati?

And, who has SR signed up to rabbit Alicia through 14:52-14:53/5k and possibly a bit further?

Pacers announcement final big reveal prior to Saturday.

Pleasantly surprised to see Karissa a last-minute entrant.

Seeing as Jerry's MO is to have his athletes go thru long training blocks to ensure top fitness before racing, have to believe he/Karissa believe she is in good enough shape to run back-to-back 15:20/5ks to get her 30:40 Oly Q.

Karissa has stated on her social media she is finally running pain free since her 2nd Haglands Deformity surgery back in October. She was bothered by achilles problems all last year, thus her sub-par performances.

BTW, regarding BTC, one in, one out. Karissa just added, but Christina Aragon quietly removed today (3/13 Wed) from the Pro Women's 1500.

Since BTC essentially started The TEN w/SR back in 2021, include Justyn Knight and Duncan Hamilton among the potential pacers candidates.

Particularly would enjoy seeing Knight finally get back onto the track following two years of injuries.

Morgan McDonald has now quietly been removed from the starting list. He mentioned on today’s episode of Coffee Club that he’s picked up a niggle and may not be able to race. Looks like he’s decided to pull out of the race since filming the episode unfortunately.

Good catch.

As of yesterday there were 37 entrants in the men's Paris race but now that's down to 36. Was wondering who was removed. Now we know.

30 entrants still in the women's Paris race.

Both races will look like cross country meets on the track.

Expect a few men to be lapped in the men's race -- those that are at/under 27:00 will be lapping those a minute back.

However, most of the women will be lapped by Alicia & whomever goes with her targeting that 29:45. Women's Paris race will look pretty messy.

Pacers still to be announced. Men's pacers have been speculated in above posts. For women -- given OAC's support for this meet -- Josette Norris may be a candidate presuming she's not taking down time now from Glasgow.

Weather forecast for San Juan Capistrano around 9 pm Saturday evening: 57 deg, 3 mph breeze, 35% humidity. Perfect as usual.

Per JG's article just posted tonight (3/14 Thu), pace lights for Monson now set for 29:37.

Huge ask for Taylor Werner/Puma Elite pacer to be anywhere near/under 14:50/5k. Suspect she will rabbit thru 3k then Alicia & whomever will be on their own.

Amon Kemboi/13:06/5k a pacer for the men's Paris race as speculated above.

In addition, up-an-coming Ahmed Muhamed/NAZ Elite/13:16/5k will be helping out.

Nothin' left now but the racin'.

I curious as to what makes Monson and Ritz think that she is capable of running 29:37. That's a massive drop from her PR.

SR's IG post a couple days back stated the pacing lights for the Paris women's 10k would be set at 29:45 (specifically for Monson) and 30:40 (for everyone else).

Now we're being told it 29:37.

Either way, huge jump from 30:03.

However, she's done it before (from WA profile):

10,000 Metres
Year Performance Venue Date
2019 33:02.91 Palo Alto, CA (USA) 29 MAR 2019
2020 31:10.84 JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, CA (USA) 05 DEC 2020
2021 31:18.55 Hayward Field, Eugene, OR (USA) 26 JUN 2021
2022 30:51.09 Hayward Field, Eugene, OR (USA) 27 MAY 2022
2023 30:03.82 JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, CA (USA) 04 MAR 2023

Have to presume Alicia/Ritz see training improvements indicative of a perfect 10k race well under 30-flat.

Alicia's recent Millrose 2-mile performance -- while an AR -- was compromised a bit by her holiday season bout with COVID as well as OAC getting a later start to its winter training.

However, The TEN is two weeks later this year than the three past meets, so this should benefit her greatly.

Really pulling for Alicia to do something great.

Per JG's article, pacing lights will start at 72/lap for 3k, 71/lap thru 8k, then 70/lap thru 10k.

Thus, targeted splits will be:

3k: 9:00

5k: 14:55 (can Werner/pacer run this?)

8k: 23:47-23:48

10k: 29:37 (14:42 final 5k)

Are they doing that thing again where they say they are going to split the revenue amongst all the athletes, and then never say how much they took in / how much each athlete took home?

- She was 5th at Worlds in the event. Yes it was a (hot) slow race, but as we’ve seen with Rupp, Fisher, and generally a lack of pretenders making it to the late stages, it takes serious time trial fitness to be in contention on the last lap at global championships.

- She ran 14:19 in July. Nobody should be surprised by a 14:19 5k/10k runner clocking well under 30 for 10k.

- Last year she ran 29:47 pace for the last 12 laps at this event, leading almost the entire way. She probably feels like she could have run faster with quicker/more even splits in the first half and someone to help with the pace late (hopefully she can expect Gebreselama to take a turn at leading, since they’ve done workouts together recently and share practically the same goal).

29:37 sounds aggressive but obviously I’m not in the know like Monson and Ritz, and based on the above 29:45-29:50ish wouldn’t be even remotely surprising.

OK. Maybe I took "a bit too much" there.

But when Almgren did an interval workout, in this case, 5x2000m/2min rest @5.20 with good controll/effort during the whole session (without any big reduce in his weekly mileage - 180-190km). Well, that tells me he is capable for a sub 27min. At least I hope and want to see him break that "magical" barrier ;)

I’m all with you. Almgren is gonna break The Swedish record (27..55 from 1989) by a minute….

All correct. Ritz is basing this on workouts and things she has done in training. Note that he had Klecker targeting sub-27, not something outlandishly fast last year even though him running 12:55 (much of it solo) might indicate something faster. I think we at the time thought that was purely for the Olympic standard, but I think it was also about as fast as they thought he could go.

The big thing to me will be the Gebreselama piece because where this falls short is if a) Monson has to do all the work b) Gebreselama goes up front and just hammers it to a 29:2x. If it's between and they're working together from 4K-9K both should run really fast.

I said 26:40s. Perhaps you think ten guys are going to cross the finish line holding hands at 26:59.