She’s not going to beat Monson or Cranny and there are others with better PRs in the 3000m and 5000m. It’s also unlikely she has the middle distance speed needed to snag the 3rd spot off of a slow pace.
I agree she’s not a lock to make the team, but I think she has a chance. How many people would have predicted Nico would beat Nur and Kincaid while running faster on the same track on the same day than Nuguse and Klecker?
Don’t know about Nur, but if Kincaid is healthy for trials, Nico has no chance of beating him.
I just want to see Valby race other women that can be competitive with her to see how competitive she might actually be at the next level. At the NCAA level, I think she needs to go down in distance to get more competition. The 3000 is the most competitive distance indoors with a lot of top runners doubling from the 5000, mile, and DMR.
Valby will have to race Monson, Cranny, Andrews, Schwiezer, St. Pierre, Henes, Kelati, Rogers, and others capable of running sub-15. Four of those women have gone 4 flat or faster in the 1500 and that doesn't include Monson. She's completely untested against top competition. O'keeffe had never run a marathon, but had plenty of experience racing people faster than her.
I agree she’s not a lock to make the team, but I think she has a chance. How many people would have predicted Nico would beat Nur and Kincaid while running faster on the same track on the same day than Nuguse and Klecker?
Valby definitely has a chance. The 3rd (and possibly 2nd) slot is wide open with some runners opting for 10k and others injured or with similar PRs. She just ran 14:56? Plenty of time to improve on that, and she closed that race very well. She will either sit on the leader (Monson) or take the lead and push the pace if Monson is in the 10k, for example.
I just want to see Valby race other women that can be competitive with her to see how competitive she might actually be at the next level. At the NCAA level, I think she needs to go down in distance to get more competition. The 3000 is the most competitive distance indoors with a lot of top runners doubling from the 5000, mile, and DMR.
Valby will have to race Monson, Cranny, Andrews, Schwiezer, St. Pierre, Henes, Kelati, Rogers, and others capable of running sub-15. Four of those women have gone 4 flat or faster in the 1500 and that doesn't include Monson. She's completely untested against top competition. O'keeffe had never run a marathon, but had plenty of experience racing people faster than her.
Conversely, we really do not know how fast Valby can go because she is so far ahead of her competition in college right now. Sub 15 indoors is a good indicator that she could keep up with the current pros. I think the big issue for Valby is whether she can run a prelim and a final in the 5k given her injury issues. The women's 5k and 10k have not been huge sprints the last 400m. The pack gradually separated themselves over the last 1k and finished with a strong last lap. But certainly not a last lap that only someone with 1500m speed could compete with.
Valby got a groundbreaking NIL deal with Nike by and large because Nike wanted her to win the trials and go to Paris. Valby will definitely be at the trials and will be sure to get the standard before then. She does face a very deep pro field, but it is not that big of a step up for her to make the 2024 team if she can stay healthy and up her training on the track a bit.
Valby's not going to be able to kick with the best of the US at trials in the 5000m, but she might not have to because she is likely going to be way out in front or drafting off of Monson way out in front of the rest.
I just want to see Valby race other women that can be competitive with her to see how competitive she might actually be at the next level. At the NCAA level, I think she needs to go down in distance to get more competition. The 3000 is the most competitive distance indoors with a lot of top runners doubling from the 5000, mile, and DMR.
Valby will have to race Monson, Cranny, Andrews, Schwiezer, St. Pierre, Henes, Kelati, Rogers, and others capable of running sub-15. Four of those women have gone 4 flat or faster in the 1500 and that doesn't include Monson. She's completely untested against top competition. O'keeffe had never run a marathon, but had plenty of experience racing people faster than her.
Conversely, we really do not know how fast Valby can go because she is so far ahead of her competition in college right now. Sub 15 indoors is a good indicator that she could keep up with the current pros. I think the big issue for Valby is whether she can run a prelim and a final in the 5k given her injury issues. The women's 5k and 10k have not been huge sprints the last 400m. The pack gradually separated themselves over the last 1k and finished with a strong last lap. But certainly not a last lap that only someone with 1500m speed could compete with.
Valby got a groundbreaking NIL deal with Nike by and large because Nike wanted her to win the trials and go to Paris. Valby will definitely be at the trials and will be sure to get the standard before then. She does face a very deep pro field, but it is not that big of a step up for her to make the 2024 team if she can stay healthy and up her training on the track a bit.
Last year Monson went out in front and ground down the field over the course of the race, but Cranny closed off a 15 flat pace in 65 with a sub 32 final 200 to break away from Rogers who was leading at the bell and Monson. So yeah the last lap was something only someone with 1500m speed could compete against.
We just saw Andrews and Wayment rin in the 14:40s on the same track. Puts it in perspective.
But when there is strategy involved the person with the fastest PB does not always win. You need to be smart and know when and when not to move. we shall see. I hope Valby makes the team behind Monson/Henes and Cranny
Let's put things in perspective. Valby is a relatively novice. Has only been competing at top college level for 3 years. The first time she faced Tuohy in a 5K on the track she ran off Touhy's right shoulder and pushed her until the last lap when Tuohy dropped her. Valby has run 3 ncaa xc championship races finishing 27th after leading much of the race. Next year she led by a wide margin only to be reeled in late by Touhy. Last November Valby led start to finish. Put Valby on the track against pro competition and she will be with the leaders as long as she can. Valby is still learning and has plenty of upside.
Valby seems so much more approachable than tuohy and she is less busy only running 3 days a week, but then again maybe there's too much competition for her heart everyone's in love with her, and also i don't know if i could get over the whole florida thing. There's kind of a tragic thing to tuohy now, the once champion now being ignored in favor of the blonde crowd pleaser, and you know how much i love tragic girls, but then again valby...
Andrews ran 14:46 in the same race that Wayment ran her 14:49.
And? June is far away and there will be strategy involved. Not a time trial
Have you ever seen PV race? She is running a time trial. The people behind her have some strategic choices. Stay with the sort of hard pace and kick or run fast. I am guessing everyone picks the first option til the last k
Assume Valby will run SEC and indoor nationals. After that, focus on outdoor season with NCAA 5k win (and DMR?) and Gators title the goals. Depending on how that goes, Valby will likely go pro and take a shot at Olympic trials but she is not going to get ahead of herself. One step at a time. No need to risk injury by rushing things. I sense Tuohy did rush going up against pros last year before she was really ready. Valby won't make the same mistake. She has plenty of time to reach her potential. In the meantime, I hope Tuohy bounces back and gets back on track.
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