Nick Willis was a pretty fair Kiwi in his time. Two Olympic medals at 1500m and 3:29 pre-super spikes. He did not give it much of a go at 5000m, despite training big mileage.
Geordie Beamish smashes New Zealand 5000m record
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xzcvzxcv wrote:
Nick Willis was a pretty fair Kiwi in his time. Two Olympic medals at 1500m and 3:29 pre-super spikes. He did not give it much of a go at 5000m, despite training big mileage.
He's pretty much the exception amongst Kiwi athletes in nearly fifty years. A lot of posters here also think he is clean so he may have been even better if he had done like those who beat him.
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Armstronglivs wrote:
xzcvzxcv wrote:
Nick Willis was a pretty fair Kiwi in his time. Two Olympic medals at 1500m and 3:29 pre-super spikes. He did not give it much of a go at 5000m, despite training big mileage.
He's pretty much the exception amongst Kiwi athletes in nearly fifty years. A lot of posters here also think he is clean so he may have been even better if he had done like those who beat him.
This is nothing more than an opinion and not unbiased because while I have never met him I have a few friends who know Willis pretty well and all of them would be shocked if they learned he'd been doping. One of those friends asked me if I thought it was even possible to have been as successful as he was if so many of his competitors were on stuff.
I said that I thought it was possible because now and again you have a generational talent come along who is just in a class on his own. I used Jim Ryun in 1966 and '67 as an example. He was totally dominant in those years. Even the best of the rest, Keino, Tummler, May, really had no chance of beating him and usually didn't even come very close. I think if there had been things like EPO then and some from that group took it and Ryun did not I think he would still have beaten them frequently but by smaller margins and probably would lose a race here and there. Herb Elliott might be another example of someone good enough on his own to have beaten dopers frequently. I kind of think that could have been the case with Willis. But again, that's just an opinion and worth exactly what you paid to read it.
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Ghost1 wrote:
Boing boing wrote:
McDonald is an Aussie you prune! And no one fears the All Blacks. Fun fact though no kiwi has ever broken 46 seconds for 400m!
Yup, stand corrected on that....I'll have to focus on Australian vowels the next time I watch one of those videos with McDonald (Coffee club) etc because they are very different to New Zealand vowels (why do Kiwis pronounce e like i? it's really hilarious!) The thing about Beamish is that he's so quiet and introverted that you rarely hear him speak on those videos and when he does say something it is usually very little.
Looking at the top participation Sports in New Zealand - basketball and netball are at the top although rugby is at the very top for boys and Athletics and track and field are way down at the lower end of participation in New Zealand. Scroll down to "participation"
Way too many sports in NZ high school dilutes the base. All sports are significantly down in participation. Netball is only played in a few Commonwealth countries. It is not the contact sport that basketball is. Young people nowadays are less attracted to contact sports smartly and wisely. And It (netball) won't get you an American college scholly, which all NZ kids strive for irregardless of the sport.
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HRE wrote:
This is nothing more than an opinion and not unbiased because while I have never met him I have a few friends who know Willis pretty well and all of them would be shocked if they learned he'd been doping. One of those friends asked me if I thought it was even possible to have been as successful as he was if so many of his competitors were on stuff.
I said that I thought it was possible because now and again you have a generational talent come along who is just in a class on his own. I used Jim Ryun in 1966 and '67 as an example. He was totally dominant in those years. Even the best of the rest, Keino, Tummler, May, really had no chance of beating him and usually didn't even come very close. I think if there had been things like EPO then and some from that group took it and Ryun did not I think he would still have beaten them frequently but by smaller margins and probably would lose a race here and there. Herb Elliott might be another example of someone good enough on his own to have beaten dopers frequently. I kind of think that could have been the case with Willis. But again, that's just an opinion and worth exactly what you paid to read it.
Nick Willis by all accounts seems to be a nice guy, opinionated, and I really have no reason to believe he's doping outside of him running so fast at an advanced age. And I'm not one of those people who'd think someone is solely doping because they're fast.
He's had a couple of weird stories/anecdotes like being happy that Makhloufi beat Kiprop at an Olympics because he knew Kiprop was doping. That despite Makhloufi being a pretty obvious doping suspect (coached by Jama Aden, bizarrely managed etc.) himself.
Then there was the time he seemingly randomly accused Haron Keitany of doping for no other reason than him being good, Kenyan and not having a long-lasting career. People came on here and elsewhere to back up that Keitany did have a couple comebacks, was of high character and merely battled injuries on and off from 2008 to 2011, when he had to call it quits. He somewhat backtracked on the issue and did sort of the "I have black friends" defense in saying he thought Augustine Choge was fully clean.
But anyhow if you believe Nick to be clean (which I do) it does provide a nice lane for athletes to be clean and rather fast considering he ran 3:29.66 at age 32 pre-super Spikes. Consider Nick:
-Only ran 6 days per week
-Eschewed altitude training until late in his career (2010 at age 26-27)
-Prioritized durability over trying to achieve massive fitness in his prime years
-Did a very small % of his training at threshold pace (which is now in vein)
-Didn't have access to superspikes/supershoes until late in his career
-No wavelight
This would all make you remain suspicious of someone running crazy times like Kiprop's 3:26 in Monaco, but maybe have some grace for a Tim Cheruiyot, Yared or Jakob taking advantage of superspikes and other modern advantages.21 -
Timaru \"Tim\" Terwilliger wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
Yup, stand corrected on that....I'll have to focus on Australian vowels the next time I watch one of those videos with McDonald (Coffee club) etc because they are very different to New Zealand vowels (why do Kiwis pronounce e like i? it's really hilarious!) The thing about Beamish is that he's so quiet and introverted that you rarely hear him speak on those videos and when he does say something it is usually very little.
Looking at the top participation Sports in New Zealand - basketball and netball are at the top although rugby is at the very top for boys and Athletics and track and field are way down at the lower end of participation in New Zealand. Scroll down to "participation"
Way too many sports in NZ high school dilutes the base. All sports are significantly down in participation. Netball is only played in a few Commonwealth countries. It is not the contact sport that basketball is. Young people nowadays are less attracted to contact sports smartly and wisely. And It (netball) won't get you an American college scholly, which all NZ kids strive for irregardless of the sport.
Not all kiwi kids strive for an American scholly as you put it ( boomer trying to sound cool) there are multiple examples of kiwi runners, rowers and swimmers making it to Olympic level without going the scholarship route.
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Boing boing wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
In New Zealand track and field just is not popular at all compared to the number one sport, Rugby. Standards seem to have fallen in recent years as well. The feared All Blacks of the running world in the 60s and 70s seem to have faded away and not been replaced.
Now N.Z. have Tanner, Beamish, McDonald and a few others but the depth is not there. In New Zealand, life is very expensive and running professionally is not a career option for most. In addition I don't think Athletics New Zealand has very deep pockets.
McDonald is an Aussie you prune! And no one fears the All Blacks. Fun fact though no kiwi has ever broken 46 seconds for 400m!
What are you talking about? The worst All Blacks team in 25 years still made the World Cup final and were likely screwed out of a victory. Yes, 400m is NZ's worst event, it's just population size and demographic make up. Most countries outside of the Caribbean with only 5 million people or less don't have very fast national records.
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subs wrote:
Boing boing wrote:
McDonald is an Aussie you prune! And no one fears the All Blacks. Fun fact though no kiwi has ever broken 46 seconds for 400m!
What are you talking about? The worst All Blacks team in 25 years still made the World Cup final and were likely screwed out of a victory. Yes, 400m is NZ's worst event, it's just population size and demographic make up. Most countries outside of the Caribbean with only 5 million people or less don't have very fast national records.
Paging Norway! Come in Norway 🇳🇴
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Nick Willis by all accounts seems to be a nice guy, opinionated, and I really have no reason to believe he's doping outside of him running so fast at an advanced age. And I'm not one of those people who'd think someone is solely doping because they're fast.He's had a couple of weird stories/anecdotes like being happy that Makhloufi beat Kiprop at an Olympics because he knew Kiprop was doping. That despite Makhloufi being a pretty obvious doping suspect (coached by Jama Aden, bizarrely managed etc.) himself.
Then there was the time he seemingly randomly accused Haron Keitany of doping for no other reason than him being good, Kenyan and not having a long-lasting career. People came on here and elsewhere to back up that Keitany did have a couple comebacks, was of high character and merely battled injuries on and off from 2008 to 2011, when he had to call it quits. He somewhat backtracked on the issue and did sort of the "I have black friends" defense in saying he thought Augustine Choge was fully clean.
But anyhow if you believe Nick to be clean (which I do) it does provide a nice lane for athletes to be clean and rather fast considering he ran 3:29.66 at age 32 pre-super Spikes. Consider Nick:
-Only ran 6 days per week
-Eschewed altitude training until late in his career (2010 at age 26-27)
-Prioritized durability over trying to achieve massive fitness in his prime years
-Did a very small % of his training at threshold pace (which is now in vein)
-Didn't have access to superspikes/supershoes until late in his career
-No wavelightThis would all make you remain suspicious of someone running crazy times like Kiprop's 3:26 in Monaco, but maybe have some grace for a Tim Cheruiyot, Yared or Jakob taking advantage of superspikes and other modern advantages.
It's an interesting one to hypothesize on. Everything you said about Wills running in the era is accurate.
Looking through the lens of the 3 "major" shifts in the event which are lights, training and shoes, it its interesting to think about the impact they would have had on him.
Lights - definitely a huge help but not in the most obvious way. The thing about Nick is that he was kind of ahead of his time in his approach to races - he was trying to do what wavelight is enabling now, just in an era without WL. His ideal race was 56.0, 56.0, 56.0 and then as fast as he could muster except he really tried and committed to this in practice, not just theory. So people would wonder why he f-ed around at the back of fields and would mow guys down and then say "why wouldn't he just be at the front the whole time?". Well because he committed to running even. The big help wavelight has with Nick is not really with him but the guys around him. There is zero doubt that navigating bodies in the final 150m cost him time and that's because he raced against guys going out in 54.5 who then imploded. So wavelight has and would have created just more sensible races in general. Now he's running 56.0 at the front of the field, 7 meters of so off Jakob - not 56.0 15 meters back with a crew of jabronis in front of him that were just ticking time bombs he would eventually have to navigate at the end of the race.
Training - hard to say. Maybe he does more threshold and maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. The thing with Nick was that he was a true student of the sport and himself. Like he spent a long time finding out what worked for him and perfecting it. Many times he wouldn't listen to Warhurst and/or modify workouts to suit himself. I think by the time he really got consistent and was running fast (that 2013-2016 period) he had it figured out. He trained to what his strengths were - he wasn't a 1500/5000 guy, he was an 800/1500 guy with underrated speed that could have run low 1.44 if he had committed at his peak (and before anyone blows a gasket over that, remember Centro ran 1.44.62 and Nick was quicker and stronger than him).
Spikes. I know Nick was a huge fan of the first NB "superspike" when it came out and easy to understand why. Like a lot of guys in this era who had to run with relatively low cushioned EVA shoes, doing a lot of work on the track in spikes was kind of impossible. So the ability to run longer reps in cushioned spikes certainly would feel nice. One of the more hidden benefits of the spikes is there ability to even out imperfections in gait because of the added cushioning and that would have helped him too because he was notoriously tight in his calf muscles etc. So I think in terms of racing, very little benefit (like there isn't for anyone), but in terms of his body and reducing damage he was a prime candidate for these products.
Finally the one thing we overlook when thinking about eras is that I truly believe the best guys will just rise to the top - they will just be better than the pack. Back in his era he was running 3.29.5 when 3.32.0 was kind of the middle of the pack for elite 1500m running. Now that has been shifted to more like 3.30.5 - the specific factors that have bought on this are relevant for this point. So while you might have less talented guys making up ground and running closer to what he was doing at his peak, he would have still just been better and closer to the top of the event rather than closer to the middle. Remember this guy has an Olympic silver and the guy ahead of him was banned from the sport. He also has an Olympic bronze and both guys ahead of him that race are highly suspicious in my opinion including the champion who was one of 3 guys directly coached by a guy who was banned from the sport for multiple indiscretions including practices pertaining to doping. He is in the very least an Olympic champion talent and maybe a multiple time Olympic champion talent.
So what does he run in 2023 with lights and spikes and better fields? I think he is in the 3.28.2/3 range. You might not think that's so much better than 3.29.66 in his era but 1.3/1.4 seconds at this level of running is astronomical.
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Did you try for more?01
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
It's an interesting one to hypothesize on. Everything you said about Wills running in the era is accurate.
Looking through the lens of the 3 "major" shifts in the event which are lights, training and shoes, it its interesting to think about the impact they would have had on him.
Lights - definitely a huge help but not in the most obvious way. The thing about Nick is that he was kind of ahead of his time in his approach to races - he was trying to do what wavelight is enabling now, just in an era without WL. His ideal race was 56.0, 56.0, 56.0 and then as fast as he could muster except he really tried and committed to this in practice, not just theory. So people would wonder why he f-ed around at the back of fields and would mow guys down and then say "why wouldn't he just be at the front the whole time?". Well because he committed to running even. The big help wavelight has with Nick is not really with him but the guys around him. There is zero doubt that navigating bodies in the final 150m cost him time and that's because he raced against guys going out in 54.5 who then imploded. So wavelight has and would have created just more sensible races in general. Now he's running 56.0 at the front of the field, 7 meters of so off Jakob - not 56.0 15 meters back with a crew of jabronis in front of him that were just ticking time bombs he would eventually have to navigate at the end of the race.
Training - hard to say. Maybe he does more threshold and maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. The thing with Nick was that he was a true student of the sport and himself. Like he spent a long time finding out what worked for him and perfecting it. Many times he wouldn't listen to Warhurst and/or modify workouts to suit himself. I think by the time he really got consistent and was running fast (that 2013-2016 period) he had it figured out. He trained to what his strengths were - he wasn't a 1500/5000 guy, he was an 800/1500 guy with underrated speed that could have run low 1.44 if he had committed at his peak (and before anyone blows a gasket over that, remember Centro ran 1.44.62 and Nick was quicker and stronger than him).
Spikes. I know Nick was a huge fan of the first NB "superspike" when it came out and easy to understand why. Like a lot of guys in this era who had to run with relatively low cushioned EVA shoes, doing a lot of work on the track in spikes was kind of impossible. So the ability to run longer reps in cushioned spikes certainly would feel nice. One of the more hidden benefits of the spikes is there ability to even out imperfections in gait because of the added cushioning and that would have helped him too because he was notoriously tight in his calf muscles etc. So I think in terms of racing, very little benefit (like there isn't for anyone), but in terms of his body and reducing damage he was a prime candidate for these products.
Finally the one thing we overlook when thinking about eras is that I truly believe the best guys will just rise to the top - they will just be better than the pack. Back in his era he was running 3.29.5 when 3.32.0 was kind of the middle of the pack for elite 1500m running. Now that has been shifted to more like 3.30.5 - the specific factors that have bought on this are relevant for this point. So while you might have less talented guys making up ground and running closer to what he was doing at his peak, he would have still just been better and closer to the top of the event rather than closer to the middle. Remember this guy has an Olympic silver and the guy ahead of him was banned from the sport. He also has an Olympic bronze and both guys ahead of him that race are highly suspicious in my opinion including the champion who was one of 3 guys directly coached by a guy who was banned from the sport for multiple indiscretions including practices pertaining to doping. He is in the very least an Olympic champion talent and maybe a multiple time Olympic champion talent.
So what does he run in 2023 with lights and spikes and better fields? I think he is in the 3.28.2/3 range. You might not think that's so much better than 3.29.66 in his era but 1.3/1.4 seconds at this level of running is astronomical.
Just seeing this post a couple months later, but I agree with most of it!
Only thing we'll agree to slightly disagree on is the spikes. I think there is definite benefit in the races, though at 3:29-3:30 pace the effect is not nearly as big as at 3:40 pace. But still it's something (.25 seconds-.75 seconds).
Other thing will be how Willis stacked up in his era. There is no question he was an outstanding championship racer. But picturing him as a 3:28.2-3 guy in this era I can't get to, just because of how he raced. Even with wavelight reigning in guys, I don't foresee him as a guy always finishing top 3-5 in DLs. I probably see him more running 3:29s on a more consistent basis picking off guys late. If he gets in another race like his PB race in Monaco, yes I could see him hitting 3:28s as there'll now be a pack behind Jakob who does so in my best guess (in Poland last year, Kipsang ran 3:29.1 solo in a thin race). We'll see if that happens this year. But I'd stand by as well as he knew himself he left some stuff on the table beyond the mechanical improvements in 2024.00
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