Granada will probably do fine, however their #1 returner seems to be very distance oriented, only running 4:40 at their season opener, almost getting beat by the other returner, who was much slower than him during XC season. They probably will win NCS again, but it's not as guaranteed as it was in the past. They seem to be missing a returner though. He was the fastest out of all of their returners as a freshman. Maybe he quit or got injured.
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10
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Prediction for teams that will qualify for the state meet - Southern Section Division 2 boys:
Glendora, Tesoro, Woodbridge, Ayala, Hart (William S.), El Toro, El DoradoI don’t think Newbury Park will make it to state this time unless they get some high-level transfers like they did in previous years.
Ventura seems to be in an even worse position than Newbury Park.40 -
20
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Arnold O. Beckman will be solid for the next few years
5k times
Nguyen - 10 - 15:32
Weber - 10 - 15:56
Feaster - 11 - 15:59
Barrera - 11 - 16:063200 times
Barris - 9 - 9:55
Syed - 9 - 10:00
Barajas - 10 - 10:07
Boatman - 9 - 10:15
Forman - 9 - 10:2030 -
MLK right now is at -
4:12
4:18
4:23
4:26
4:31
wish they can just find a 6th and 7th though. having only 5 good runners is not good.60 -
need to find a 6th runner wrote:
MLK right now is at -
4:12
4:18
4:23
4:26
4:31
wish they can just find a 6th and 7th though. having only 5 good runners is not good.They also have a freshman who ran a 10:11 in the 3200 F-S race at Redondo. Many people make big jumps from freshman to sophomore year
Also Stewart (sophomore) who was their 7th man at the state meet and ran a 16:51 there.
20 -
Hart is returning a lot of depth. Returning 3200 times:
9:31
9:44
9:44
9:50
9:53
10:07
10:0920 -
Dkubb wrote:
Hart is returning a lot of depth. Returning 3200 times:
9:31
9:44
9:44
9:50
9:53
10:07
10:09Even better, if you include last year's PRs for two of them
9:24
9:29
9:44
9:44
9:50
10:07
10:0920 -
Crescenta Valley seems like they will be reloading again after losing so many guys. They won’t make NXN but they could be as good as the last 2 years. They return 9:41, 9:49, 9:53, 9:55, 9:56.
In 2022 most of the team was seniors but in 2023 they finished almost the same.50 -
Westin Brown is back. 4:26 in the 1600 in the JV race.
If healthy, Great Oak returns him, 4 guys from the NXN squad, Lynch (Jr, 9:57 3200), Gump (Jr, 9:55 3200 in 2023), and Sanchez (So, 4:42 3200).This will be a deep top 7 and it will be hard for another CA team to take them down.
40 -
Dana Hills has a 4:29 1600 junior who isn’t Hunter or Noonan.
If this translates to XC and they find a solid #4&5 (some of the freshmen and sophs can possibly step up to that), Dana Hills can become competitive again.20 -
JSerra boys team
1600
Morales (10) - 4:10
Friedl (10) - 4:18
Arrey (11) - 4:19
O’Leary (9) - 4:29 (and 16:58 5k)800
Burnett (10) - 1:55 (and 16:49 5k)
DeSantos (10) - 2:01 (and 17:00 3 miles)They also have Carlson (10) who ran a 16:38 5k at the state meet.
This team is going to be really solid for the next couple of years
30 -
mele kaliki wrote:
Millikan didn’t make the state meet last year, but next year they lose Parra but return 4 sub-4:30 guys and another guy who ran a 15:15 at CIF Southern Section Finals. They’re in a tough section though.Also 2 freshmen who ran a 4:38 and 4:40 in the 1600 who can step up and become a very good #5 and #6 for them. They also have another 4:38 junior who was in their top 7.30 -
WaitForMoreData wrote:
Dkubb wrote:
Hart is returning a lot of depth. Returning 3200 times:
9:31
9:44
9:44
9:50
9:53
10:07
10:09Even better, if you include last year's PRs for two of them
9:24
9:29
9:44
9:44
9:50
10:07
10:09Bellarmine has a very similar list of returners, but even a little better depth
1. 11 Shrey Chettiar 9:24.58
2. 11 Will Burch 9:37.46
3. 11 Zander Verhoeven 9:44.66
4. 11 Devansh Shah 9:50.22
5. 11 Dane Flores 9:54.85
6. 10 Ben Penzel 9:56.14
7. 9 Duncan Burk 10:03.0110 -
Oaks Christian returning top 4 still looking strong
4:28 Mile
9:33 3200
4:34 Mile
4:46 Mile
But they still lack a 5th. Tons of 5:30 mile Frosh/Soph that could maybe take a leap next year
Maybe could sneak 2nd in D4 if they get a 5th runner.
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Top 10 returning California Teams based on early outdoor track times 3/17/2024. I will give another assessment update after 4/7/2024. only 2024 3200/1600 times used.
#10 - Jserra
Alden Morales - 4:10 (10)
Luke Friedl - 4:18 (10)
Bradley Arrey - 4:19 (11)
Zac O’Leary - 4:29 (9)
JD Ewing - 4:59 (10)
I get that they should probably be higher. But some of their guys only run 800s, and I am not using that for 2024 XC predictions. Their number 5 is JD Ewing - 4:59, but their number 5 should technically be in the 4:20s.#9 - Great Oak
Jack Paradise - 4:19 (11)
Jacob Brown - 4:21 (11)
Westin Brown 4:26 (11)
Marco Franco - 9:53 (10)
Carson Lynch - 9:57 (11)
I get that they barely raced. Westin Brown is coming back. They should move up quite a bit later on in the season.#8 - Hart
Eli Ahten - 9:31 (11)
Alejandro Cueto - 4:27 (11)
Nicholas Zamora - 9:44 (10)
Josue Lopez - 9:44 (11)
Alireza Tofangdar - 4:31 (11)
Surprise team. Very good early track performances, but can they perform as well during cross country?#7 - Tesoro
Griffin Kushen - 9:21 (11)
Ryan McNamara - 9:35 (11)
Chase Manning - 4:28 (10)
Parker Wolf 4:33 (11)
Ezra Bryden - 4:33 (11)
Interesting team. Solid for so far. We will see how much they improve#6 - Millikan
Jack Brown - 9:27 (11)
Aiden Ransom - 4:22(10)
Maximiliano Ramirez - 9:40 (11)
Bryce Cobabe - 4:29 (10)
Brandon Garcia - 4:38 (9)
Young team with lots of talent. Lacks a clear front runner.#5 Jesuit CA
Issac Abbot - 9:11 (10)
Drake Hoferer - 9:19 (10)
Matthew Ogilvie - 4:19 (9)
Lucas Alberts - 4:35 (9)
Navin Kadel - 4:36 (11)
Expect Jesuit CA to move up as their #4, #5 times improve in the later season.#4 Buchanan
Luke Sanders - 4:14 (11)
Max Jauregui - 4:23 (11)
Michael Pritsky - 4:27 (10)
Jansen Geyer - 4:30 (10)
Deaglan Givan - 9:48 (11)Seems to be stagnating on the track when compared to their XC results. Only time will tell.
#3 Mira Costa
Ian Hansen - 9:19 (11)
Isaac Faynsod - 9:33 (11)
Carson Ehman - 9:33 (10)
Krish Desai - 4:26 (10)
JT Kaplan - 4:32 (10)Team that usually performs quite well on the track.
#2 Arnold Beckman
Christian Weber - 9:20 (10)
Mason Ngyuen - 4:20 (10)
Aaron Feaster - 4:20 (11)
Ryan Barris - 9:36 (9)
Brandon Boatman - 4:36 (9)New team on the scene that has immense potential. Keep in mind that one of their top runners isn't show here.
#1 ML King
Maximo Zavaleta - 9:04 (10)
Brayden Lunetta - 4:18 (11)
Logan Carlson - 4:23 (10)
Bradley Quezanda - 4:24 (10)
Alex Wesołowski - 4:25 (11)The returning team with the best track results is... ML King! 5th runner is at 4:25. This team needs depth though.
90 -
That's a good list. Thanks for putting that together.
I would assume your watchlist contains:
Bellarmine
Vacaville
Ayala
Crescenta Valley (5 guys under 10 already)
West Ranch
Santiago (Corona)
Trabuco Hills40 -
What I noticed in this list is that a vast majority of the top teams will be underclassman-heavy, so in 2025, California will be stronger and deeper.
In 2023 all of the top teams were senior-heavy.
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Are you guys high school or college coaches? Or maybe bettors? I don’t understand your fascination with the high school division.
31 -
Durrrrrr wrote:
Are you guys high school or college coaches? Or maybe bettors? I don’t understand your fascination with the high school division.
I just want our teams to beat southwest teams at nxn next year. past runner
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