I didn't say anything about what he will run. I just said that his training "simulation" could be done by any of his competition without much effort. He's already an impressive runner. Quit making that workout into something it isn't.
Kinda what I don’t love at MP workouts of this length as far as indicating much of anything. I’d get it more if it was done on hills/at altitude eg Obiri doing 25 miles at 2:25 pace in Boulder hills/altitude, Canova’s big workouts etc. We’ve seen enough guys who can run 57-59 minutes in the half and top out at 2:05-2:07. They would find running 16 miles at 2:02 or 2:03 pace very easy.
Not sure any of them tell much. Those 25miles are a tougher workout (we can hand wave about altitude and hill adjustment be we are looking at a low 2:22 type effort) but we then still have debate if they crossed the line from hard training to breaking down. CJj Albertsons ran some 28miler at 5:10 pace. Ritz talked about doing 20 milers at 4:50 all the time. And so on. Now some people do these and then have great races. But it is hit and miss. We have no way of telling if someone is really in awesome shape or just running a work 5s/mile too fast…
He said it was a marathon simulator workout, not a marathon predictor. He was practicing taking fluids and handling the u-turn. Not a bad idea to do a workout like that at a best of all possible worlds pace for a confidence boost and to practice taking fluids when you are working hard. But it is pretty clear that he did not consider that to be a goal pace for the trials given that it will be warm and humid unless there is a big cold front.
I like Panning. He races a lot and is game for everything from 5k to 26.2. He had a good race at Worlds and could be on the verge of a big breakthrough at the trials.
He said it was a marathon simulator workout, not a marathon predictor. He was practicing taking fluids and handling the u-turn. Not a bad idea to do a workout like that at a best of all possible worlds pace for a confidence boost and to practice taking fluids when you are working hard. But it is pretty clear that he did not consider that to be a goal pace for the trials given that it will be warm and humid unless there is a big cold front.
I like Panning. He races a lot and is game for everything from 5k to 26.2. He had a good race at Worlds and could be on the verge of a big breakthrough at the trials.
His simulator prior to Budapest was run in easier conditions. 50's, rain, and not humid. Was a bit warmer in Florida and more humid. Both were run at essentially the same pace.
In Budapest, he finished ahead of ~20 2:07 guys. One might say he's in that 2:07 shape or they might say he raced smarter than those 2:07 guys - which is a point in his favor when Mantz or Young hasn't run a marathon in temperatures over 50 deg.
Not sure any of them tell much. Those 25miles are a tougher workout (we can hand wave about altitude and hill adjustment be we are looking at a low 2:22 type effort) but we then still have debate if they crossed the line from hard training to breaking down. CJj Albertsons ran some 28miler at 5:10 pace. Ritz talked about doing 20 milers at 4:50 all the time. And so on. Now some people do these and then have great races. But it is hit and miss. We have no way of telling if someone is really in awesome shape or just running a work 5s/mile too fast…
Fair points. I think as far as building fitness I know what I prefer. If this was a workout to practice race logistics and feel, sure no problem. But it is not a challenging effort.
I always thought the hanson "simulator" was 26k at 26.2m pace deep into training. There's def a chance that's he's cooked come race day, but there's also a chance he unlocks 207 fitness and wins the whole thing.
I give it to the group, they're in florida...there should be no surprises come race day.
I don’t think this was meant as a 2:05 MP workout. I think this can be used to compare times for racing a half in Houston..where he ran an additional 3 miles, wasn’t racing, and was most likely a controlled effort? I’d say he is pretty fit and will be right there.
We actually had our marathon simulator yesterday and it went really well. The goal for that is 16 miles at marathon pace and I averaged 4:47 per mile. We had some tight turns in there and practiced getting bottles down.
4:47 pace for the marathon is 2:05:25. Even if it's 4:47.9 pace, it's 2:05:49.
I'm going to go with, "No, he's not in 2:05 shape. He must have subconsciously raced this workout" but he's a cool story and has a legit shot at the team.
One other fascinating thing from the Q&A is that he ways less now than he did his freshman year in HS.
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