Nuguse tested 14 times by USADA in 2023

Keep in mind, Lance Armstrong, Marion Jones, Barry Bonds, Galen Rupp, Kara Goucher et al, also passed every single drug test.

I think the odds of getting caught might be higher than you might suspect. I have no knowledge at all of how PEDs are used, schedules, or anything like that, I'm just throwing out some info based on what chemistry and probability I did study.

The first reason is that the half life by itself is not too significant. All it means is how long it takes for the amount in your body to halve. If a drug is detectable in tiny amounts, it might be detectable way past its half life.

The second is that the probabilities in these questions are pretty deceiving. It might sound like if you're tested only 5x a year there's a negligible chance that you'll be caught, but if you're glowing 20 days out of the year (which is just a random number I'm throwing out there because I know nothing about doping cycles), there's around a 25% chance that you'll get tested in one of those days, which is not insignificant. This is considering random days, so some tactics by the dopers or doping agencies might push the number up or down a bit. That's 25% a year, and if the numbers remain the same, there's a 58% chance that you'll get tested on a day you're glowing within 3 years, or 82% chance within 6 years.

Lance passed 500 drug test..

It’s hard to test OAC for testosterone.

Testosterone does wonders for women

That's nothing. There's so many PED narcs in L.A. If he lived here he'd have drug chaparone follow him around constantly.

She has been tested at least eight times. USADA Q2 in 2022, USADA Q2 and Q3 in 2023. Entire Huntington team was tested immediately after the accusations came out - all were clean. I assume the other four were by AIU when at overseas meets. USADA might test an athlete prior to their participation in an overseas meet but they have nothing to do with the testing at World U-20s, NACACs, European Diamond League events, etc.

"Entire European track season"? She ran two races over a period of five days. Not much of a season.

The elephant in the room is why have some athletes NEVER been tested by USADA or any other organization?

So what? The days are long gone for EPO IV drips and the like. Also everyone who ran UCI cycling already knew that Postal was systematically doping, as were several other teams. They looked the other way because it was great for cycling with many new fans around the world.

Nobody outside of track and field has ever heard of Nuguse.

You're off topic.. i'm referring to the argument, "he passed a drug test so he has to be clean". I'm just saying, that's been said before and look how that turned out.

I will add, when people start failing the "eye-test", they are usually doing something to get an advantage that others aren't.

Actually this is a sign that they are suspicious of either the blood levels or the level of improvement

Or a sign that he got tested because he set records.

Why is no one pointing out the obvious in this ignorant statement?

USADA only gets $178 Million in funding over a 10 year span from Congress according to H.R. 5373 in 2019. Which is an average of $17.8 Million with total employees of less than 200 (Not all of which are Drug Testers). USADA test Track and Field, UFC (as of 2023), Boxing Competitions, and a bunch of other sports that easily can range into the thousands. An Individual test from USADA costs $1,200.

Plus, I haven't even mentioned the fact that they lack the budget to follow thousands of athletes abroad when they go on holiday or whatever. Many UFC Athletes have mentioned in podcasts how they can circlejerk the system by simply going to a foreign country for weeks or months at a time.

Anyways the third one is very important, every USADA athlete puts in a one hour slot during the day in which they are available. Because the problem with showing up in absolute randomness to test an athlete is that you don't know where they can be which can be deemed a missed test + they don't know where they can be. So they select a 60 minute slot during the day which you'll POSSIBLY be at home. So with that knowledge, one can easily predict when they can come.

So three important points of why most athletes get tested less than 20 times a year at random

1. Lack of Money

2. Lack of Manpower

3. Lack of Reach

Probably reflects the level of suspicion. AIU was basically camping out on Houlihan's lawn. On the topic, in competition testing is useless unless you are completely incompetent. You wont catch epo use or microdosing even if it is done a few days earlier.

For all quarters of 2022 and 2023 her total USADA testing count was 3. So no she get tested 8 times by USADA. Pretty easy to search it. So you're just making stuff up.

Everyone keeps say that Lance never failed a test but he actually had a positive ant one point and covered it up by forging medical documentation.

I think this is partly right, and the odds are further helped by being able to target test people with suspicious values. E.g., getting someone on an ABP violation without ever detecting a banned substance.

On the other hand, you can skip out of competition tests up to 3X in a year, which means any competent doper can get away with it unless they’re heavily tested.

I agree with you that their mediocre performance is irrelevant on the global stage, but sometimes these mediocre 27+/60+/2:07+ guys magically "improve" so it's good to have biological passport history on them. (Think of Alberto's stable over the years.)

You could even microdose the day of a test if it’s ~2 hours out.

Yes, according to Wikipedia they found both Epo and steroids in Armstrong’s samples. And even Marion Jones was in a little trouble -Epo in one of her A samples, and didn’t meet to a test in high school…

The goose doesn't juice!