There is a runner who has improved tremendously by living at altitude for the first time. I won't say any names, but this dude is doing workouts like 20 miles in 100 minutes followed by 2 x mile under 410 on the track twice a week. Letsrun is going to be shocked by one of the qualifiers. I haven't seen anything about him being a favorite mentioned.
let's not say the person's name, or anything crazy like that though.
On a more serious note, Turner Wiley’s training on Strava has been insane. Last week he did a 20 mile progression that averaged 5:06 pace.
Mantz should make the team despite his injury. People don’t realize how easy it is to get in shape to run 2-3 minutes slower than your marathon PB. He’s a 2:07 guy…
Right now Betsy Saina is my heavy favorite to win the women’s race. Based on her win in Sydney in warm temperatures and her current fitness (this morning she ran 35k at 5:40 pace at altitude in Kenya) she will be tough to beat. I would also expect to see Sisson and Seidel in the top 3 with D’Amato as a dark horse pick.
On the men’s side right now I’m picking Rupp and Mantz, but may change my mind depending on how well Rupp runs in Houston. After that it’s pretty wide open and I can see Young or Albertson. We need to also talk about Dillon Maggard. It would be his first marathon but he could be a factor based on his speed at shorter distances.
I can’t root for her in my top 5 because she is on my mind a Kenya athlete. She ran for Kenya in 2016. Still identifies as being from Kenya… in my mind if she makes a USA team, she’s stealing the spot of someone who is really an American born citizen.
Right now Betsy Saina is my heavy favorite to win the women’s race. Based on her win in Sydney in warm temperatures and her current fitness (this morning she ran 35k at 5:40 pace at altitude in Kenya) she will be tough to beat. I would also expect to see Sisson and Seidel in the top 3 with D’Amato as a dark horse pick.
On the men’s side right now I’m picking Rupp and Mantz, but may change my mind depending on how well Rupp runs in Houston. After that it’s pretty wide open and I can see Young or Albertson. We need to also talk about Dillon Maggard. It would be his first marathon but he could be a factor based on his speed at shorter distances.
I can’t root for her in my top 5 because she is on my mind a Kenya athlete. She ran for Kenya in 2016. Still identifies as being from Kenya… in my mind if she makes a USA team, she’s stealing the spot of someone who is really an American born citizen.
If Vegas had odds right now on the men, I'm sure Rupp would be the favorite for obvious reasons. But does anyone have any idea how his training is going or how fit he his?
One the women's side, someone to watch that's outside of the top handful of likely contenders is Dakotah Lindwurm. I say that just based on her training itself, which has gone very well (posts on strava).
I can’t root for her in my top 5 because she is on my mind a Kenya athlete. She ran for Kenya in 2016. Still identifies as being from Kenya… in my mind if she makes a USA team, she’s stealing the spot of someone who is really an American born citizen.
This process for qualifying has never been used before so there will be some interesting scenarios that could play out around the world by the end of qualifying window April 30th. Then between April 30th and May 5th countries will declare their possible entries. Then the actual top 80 list will be sifted down and people will move up.
Also I don't think people are accurately understanding the potential impact of the weather / climate will have on the US Trials regardless of how good the runner is on paper by PR. Simply look at pretty much every Olympic and World Championships and how many DNF's there are and just the overall finishing times. All of those runners are international class just to qualify to compete there. A lot of people's PR's are run under ideal conditions on fast courses, etc. That will not be the case in Orlando. It is very possible that someone can finish in the top 3 who aren't already under the Olympic Standards, but has run well at other distances or is good at running in those conditions.
My reasoning for Teshomen winning is he ran 2:10 at Berlin going out at like 2:04 pace. So him blowing up is still one of our best marathoners, he won't need to go out at an insane pace at the trials, so he won't blow up.
I think Sisson has better closing speed than Saina, but I think those two will be separated from the pack the final 5k. The weather in Florida is pretty mild right now, 10am has been around 60 degrees in Orlando. If this type of holder is still lingering next month it could be a fast day, sub 2:10 to make the team, and sub 2:24 to make the team.
Right now Betsy Saina is my heavy favorite to win the women’s race. Based on her win in Sydney in warm temperatures and her current fitness (this morning she ran 35k at 5:40 pace at altitude in Kenya) she will be tough to beat. I would also expect to see Sisson and Seidel in the top 3 with D’Amato as a dark horse pick.
On the men’s side right now I’m picking Rupp and Mantz, but may change my mind depending on how well Rupp runs in Houston. After that it’s pretty wide open and I can see Young or Albertson. We need to also talk about Dillon Maggard. It would be his first marathon but he could be a factor based on his speed at shorter distances.
I can’t root for her in my top 5 because she is on my mind a Kenya athlete. She ran for Kenya in 2016. Still identifies as being from Kenya… in my mind if she makes a USA team, she’s stealing the spot of someone who is really an American born citizen.
She has always Admired The USA's Founding Fathers, USA's Proud History, Our Constitution, Bill of Rights and way of Life she takes Pride and Honor in Being an American, She Has Loyalty to The United States and The American Flag, Betsy Saina is an American in a Concorde and Lexington Way, She will Win the Trials and all Americans should be Happy she is American
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