i thought ingebrigtsen’s did 200m intervals and 100m intervals (with spikes) on mondays/wednesdays. If i am not mistaken, Filip mentioned that in the podcast - i det lange löp.
Both Brazier (1:42.3/3:34-35 1500m) and Murphy (1:42.9/3:36) split 45 point on relays.
I wasn't aware that Brazier was one of the worlds top 1500m runners. He's run 3.35.85 and I can hear it already "but that was in basically a solo race where he closed in 52 so in Monaco he could have run 3.32". Well we will never know that because the reality is he didn't do that and looking at where his career is right now, that seems extremely unlikely he ever will. And even if he did - it would never make him one of the worlds best 1500m runners because the days of 3.32 being in the worlds elite are long gone. Yes Brazier who has run 46.1 indoors so at his best could most probably run under that outdoors and comfortably run in the 45's in a relay - but he's not a world class 1500m runner in the same category as the guys mentioned.
Murphy is an even worse example. He's run 47.97 outdoors - I would be shocked if he had run under 47 in a relay situation, so where this "45 in a relay" comes from I have no idea. At this point with you throwing out numbers you might as well just claim 44 point and it would have the same plausibility. But the kicker he is a 3.36 runner. And that about ends the discussion really.
I don't think any currently would be capable of 46. They would need to have the same sprint speed as Coe, who was a sub-22 runner over 200. They don't. 48-flat out of the blocks for the fastest.
I could see Kipsang and pre-injury Wightman sneaking into the 47s. Same with Tim C pre-injury. Laros could run something quite fast. Ditto Habz. Of the top guys those are your top prospects. I agree the very top guys aren’t scaring 48 flat in Kerr, Nordas, Jakob, Nuguse, Mario et al.
This post was edited 21 seconds after it was posted.
Murphy is an even worse example. He's run 47.97 outdoors - I would be shocked if he had run under 47 in a relay situation, so where this "45 in a relay" comes from I have no idea. At this point with you throwing out numbers you might as well just claim 44 point and it would have the same plausibility. But the kicker he is a 3.36 runner. And that about ends the discussion really.
While I agree with most of your points, Murphy is credited with a 45.95 split from this meet:
But he wasn't even a 3:36 runner yet at that point, so he certainly wasn't a world class 1500 meter guy. Still, provided the relay split is accurate distance-wise (so, worth maybe 47 flat for an open 400), that is some impressive range combined with his 5000 of 14:15 from early that season.
I’d imagine most elite milers even at the collegiate/club level can run 49-50, I’d guess 47-49 for most guys attempting to get into a final.
I also think Jakob is actually one of the slower worlds best with probabaly about 48.5-49 speed. He clearly has better endurance than every miler except maybe (and a big maybe) nuguse, the only thing that holds him back in tactical races is the speed going into the final 150m.
I usually like your posts, but thinking Nuguse has better endurance than the world 5k champion who has been doing double threshold since he was 15 is crazy.
It’s a hot take for sure, but your reasoning is the exact reason I think Nuguse may overtake Jakob in the endurance department.
Jakob has trained nearly perfectly from a scientific standpoint for half of his life. Nuguse not so much. He’s only been training seriously since highschool, and maybe only efficiently since college. Yet, in a full on paced mile world record attempt Nuguse almost nabbed him. Nuguse wasn’t seen as a medal threat a couple years ago let alone a potential NR WR setter. Nuguse also isn’t a speed 1500m guy at all.
I think all eyes have been on Jakob so people haven’t noticed that Nuguse is on a trajectory to be better if he can keep it up. If his 5000m improvement is on par with his 1500m he’s also going to be right there with Jakob. I see El Gorouj (pardon my spelling) part 2 potentially coming from Nuguse.
This is why I give it a big MAYBE instead of for sure, because he might not overtake Jakob in the endurance department, but I really do think he might.
Jacob is a two time world champion at 5000m. He is on a very short list of the greatest 1500m/5000m runners of all time. He may even be at THE best of all time. Olympic 1500m gold and two world titles at 5000. Only person I can think of who comes close or tops it is El G.
Running start 400m on relay is an advantage for middle distance guys. Having to accelerate from blocks in a real 400m is a whole different kind of 400m.
I usually like your posts, but thinking Nuguse has better endurance than the world 5k champion who has been doing double threshold since he was 15 is crazy.
It’s a hot take for sure, but your reasoning is the exact reason I think Nuguse may overtake Jakob in the endurance department.
Jakob has trained nearly perfectly from a scientific standpoint for half of his life. Nuguse not so much. He’s only been training seriously since highschool, and maybe only efficiently since college. Yet, in a full on paced mile world record attempt Nuguse almost nabbed him. Nuguse wasn’t seen as a medal threat a couple years ago let alone a potential NR WR setter. Nuguse also isn’t a speed 1500m guy at all.
I think all eyes have been on Jakob so people haven’t noticed that Nuguse is on a trajectory to be better if he can keep it up. If his 5000m improvement is on par with his 1500m he’s also going to be right there with Jakob. I see El Gorouj (pardon my spelling) part 2 potentially coming from Nuguse.
This is why I give it a big MAYBE instead of for sure, because he might not overtake Jakob in the endurance department, but I really do think he might.
Jakob training for half his life is a massive advantage and part of the reason he is so good. He’s already closer to El Guerrouj part 2 than anyone (besides Kiprop maybe, but unlike El G his greatness didn’t go past 1500m). Yared might have more room for improvement relative to his own ability but Jakob is younger and already way ahead of him at every distance.
The gap between Jakob and Yared in that mile is larger than you think considering one of them did all the work after 900m (in less than ideal conditions) and still won. If you put each in their own record attempt with a pacer through 1200m, Jakob is running ~1 second faster than Yared. Remember that Noah came very close to El G in the mile WR but was 2 seconds slower at 1500m and could never touch him at other distances.
Yared is a great athlete and sub 3:44 is extremely impressive even being paced the whole way, but there’s no guarantee he will ever reach Jakob’s level. The chances of him being a 2x World Champ at 5000m, for example, are not high, and I don’t see 7:54 or 4:43 in his future just because he didn’t start training seriously until recently. If anything, the fact he started so late relative to Jakob actually hurts his chances.
It’s a hot take for sure, but your reasoning is the exact reason I think Nuguse may overtake Jakob in the endurance department.
Jakob has trained nearly perfectly from a scientific standpoint for half of his life. Nuguse not so much. He’s only been training seriously since highschool, and maybe only efficiently since college. Yet, in a full on paced mile world record attempt Nuguse almost nabbed him. Nuguse wasn’t seen as a medal threat a couple years ago let alone a potential NR WR setter. Nuguse also isn’t a speed 1500m guy at all.
I think all eyes have been on Jakob so people haven’t noticed that Nuguse is on a trajectory to be better if he can keep it up. If his 5000m improvement is on par with his 1500m he’s also going to be right there with Jakob. I see El Gorouj (pardon my spelling) part 2 potentially coming from Nuguse.
This is why I give it a big MAYBE instead of for sure, because he might not overtake Jakob in the endurance department, but I really do think he might.
Jakob training for half his life is a massive advantage and part of the reason he is so good. He’s already closer to El Guerrouj part 2 than anyone (besides Kiprop maybe, but unlike El G his greatness didn’t go past 1500m). Yared might have more room for improvement relative to his own ability but Jakob is younger and already way ahead of him at every distance.
The gap between Jakob and Yared in that mile is larger than you think considering one of them did all the work after 900m (in less than ideal conditions) and still won. If you put each in their own record attempt with a pacer through 1200m, Jakob is running ~1 second faster than Yared. Remember that Noah came very close to El G in the mile WR but was 2 seconds slower at 1500m and could never touch him at other distances.
Yared is a great athlete and sub 3:44 is extremely impressive even being paced the whole way, but there’s no guarantee he will ever reach Jakob’s level. The chances of him being a 2x World Champ at 5000m, for example, are not high, and I don’t see 7:54 or 4:43 in his future just because he didn’t start training seriously until recently. If anything, the fact he started so late relative to Jakob actually hurts his chances.
I think this is a good post,
What i’m getting at here is that Nuguse has a far less predictable future than Jakob, and that’s what tells me he’s again a MAYBE for getting better than him when all is said and done.
We aren’t ever gonna see Jakob just drop a 2-3 second PR out of nowhere again, but we know he’s been consistently etching off 0.1-0.2 seconds his entire pro career, to me, Nuguse going from a guy that people said shouldn’t have made the world team to someone that’s probably gonna be in the top 3 for a while here so quickly shows he could do something REALLY special if he continues to develop, not to say Jakob won’t. Jakob is younger than Nuguse but as far as training age goes, I don’t think it’s necessarily a fair comparison.
I fully recognize I may be a bit too optimistic about my Americans though, I did think Brazier would be a 1:41 guy if not WR holder by now and I also expected more from guys like Hocker or Teare. I could definitely be wrong here but I’ve got a hunch.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
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