Josh Kerr Going For 7:59 Two Mile At Milrose

A World Championship Outdoor Track 1500m Gold Medal is 100x better than what you listed for Girma.

Yes but this does not mean that Mo Farah ran faster than Daniel Komen @ 3000m.

Well the logic is something like: Since Kerr has beaten Jakob, it seems reasonable that Kerr could run 9 seconds slower than Jakob.

Yes I understand BUT this would be like saying well X beat Y at 800m so he should be able to be within 4-5 seconds of Y’s world record at 1500m or the mile but this isn’t always the case.

It's reasonable to think that Kerr could've run 8:07-8:08 last year at Millrose if it hadn't been a 3k. With even pacing maybe 8:05-8:06.

If he thinks that he's more fit than last year, 8:03-8:05 don't seem like that much of a stretch.

The question I have is who else is running this two mile?

Nuguse would be will likely be at Millrose, but maybe in the mile going for 3:45.

Fisher, Kincaid, Nur, Klecker, Teare and Grijalva would also be possibilities.

Even if Kerr does run 8:03, there's no guarantee he wins this race.

I am talking about at 3,000!

At the 1500 yes, at the 3000 no. His resume is thin at 3,000. 7:33 with a solid kick. I’d take Girma’s second at World Indoors, multiple wins on the indoor circuit and of course the 7:27.98, and generally great steeple performances. I am not dismissing Kerr’s credentials at all in the 1500/mile where if he were running Wanamaker you’d hope he’d aim for 3:45-6. But Girma was a threat to run 7:25 last year based on his three sub-8 steeples in 10 days in 2022. He exceeded that of course with the WR. Kerr we all think could target 8:03.4 which is marginally better than Girma’s old PB before his world record. So I’m not diminishing Kerr just noting his 3k resume is far less extensive than Girma’s was heading into Lieven.

7:54.10 is incredibly good and 8:03.40 isn’t quite as good as I think you think it is. If the 2-mile was an Olympic and Diamond League event, the all-time top list would look MUCH different. Consider the 1500 top-list (best by athlete):

4. Ingebrigtsen 3:27.14

16. Baala 3:28.98

44. Wote 3:29.91

84. Songok 3:30.99

The list is very compressed between 3:29.00 and 3:31.00 in an event where every great mid-distance runner gets in some fast races. Now, I know that Jakob is comparatively stronger at 2-mile than 1500, and I’m not claiming that anyone else in history could have run 7:54. But if 2-mile was a primary distance, there would absolutely be a decent number of men under 8:00 and even more guys between 8:00 and 8:05, to the point that you’d view 8:03.4 much differently.

8:03.40 would put an athlete ~62 meters behind Jakob’s 7:54.10, by the way.

7:54.11-7:57.99:

Daniel Komen

Hicham El Guerrouj

Kenenisa Bekele

Joshua Cheptegei

Noureddine Morceli

Yomif Kejelcha

Lamecha Girma

7:58.00-7:59.99

Jacob Kiplimo

Mohamed Katir

Bernard Lagat

Berihu Aregawi

Selemon Barega

Yared Nuguse

Haile Gebrselassie (Yeah, I know he “only” ran 8:01 three times)

Ali Saidi-Sief*

<8:03.40

Getnet Wale

Eliud Kipchoge

Noah Ngeny

Mo Farah

Grant Fisher

Jacob Krop

Hagos Gebrhiwet

Telahun Haile Bekele

Stewart McSweyn

Augustine Choge

Said Saaeed Shaheen

Moses Kiptanui

Thierry Ndikumwenayo

Mohammed Mourhit*

Yenew Alimerew

Venuste Niyongabo

…Probably several others

If the all time list looked like that, would you scoff at the idea of the 1500 world champ targeting 8:03?

Well it is an interesting point you make but it cuts both ways. Because Kerr likely gets few bites at the 2 mile apple, I would bet, if I had to, that he will never break 8:05. I think we often forget that these guys are not always at their best, even if they want to be. And it likely still holds true that, even if indoors is often faster than outdoors, it is probably not because the athletes are fitter. So I guess I haven’t seen enough of Kerr to believe he can run 8:03. His 5000m efforts are either practice or he cannot do it. And no I will not subscribe to your suggestion that possibly his greatness ends at 3000m and then he falls off a cliff at 5000m. But I also admit that I know little of the context regarding his 5000m races. So we shall see.

I don’t think the all time list would look like that (Gebrselassie should be with Bekele and Cheptegei, for one thing), but even if it did, I don’t see 8:03 as a “gimme” for Kerr. Maybe I’m overrating it (or underrating him), but afaik no one has run 8:03 or whatever the 3k equivalent is (7:27?) with a 5k PB as slow as Kerr’s. If it’s more like 7:28 then the only person is Ronald Kwemoi, but he won his 13:2x races whereas Kerr did not.

7:33 3k is worth about an 8:08 2 mile.

Is Kerr running world indoors?

Interesting 2 miles list JWH.

I, however, have the following comments:

According to World Athletics point system 7:58 gives around 1279-1280 points if my extrapolation is correct.

So only Komen, El-G, Girma and Kejelcha (apart from Jakob) has run a 3000m which gives that high numbers.

So Bekele and Morceli must go to group 2. You could, however, argue that they with the new shoes would have run seconds faster in the 3000m which will keep them in group 1. But if so Gebrselassie should go to group 1 too (he has run faster in both the 3000m and in the 2 mile).

Cheptegei should in my opinion go to group 3. He hasn´t run faster than 7:33 in the 3000m and 8:07 in the 2 miles so you could even question if he can run sub sub 8:03.40.

You have also been too generous with some of the group 2 runners. 7:59.99 equals around 1267-1268 points. In my opinion Bernard Lagat, Jacob Kiplimo, Aregawi, Barega and Nuguse should go to group 3. None of them has been close to 1268 points (outdoors; and I don´t think Nuguse´s indoor time converts to a much faster outdoor time considering the modern very fast wooden indoor tracks).

On the other hand Haile Bekele and Fisher should be promoted to group 2 due to their great 3000m performances in Eugene 2023 (both scoring 1268 points).

That's true, but that's because 1) Not all 800m guys are 800/1500 guys, many are 400/800 guys, 2) Most 800m World Champions don't train to break 3:30, and 3) Most 800m World Champions haven't already run 3:32.

I don't think it'd be fair to assume Kerr could challenge the 2 mile WR only based off of his 1500m results from this year, but I'm not. In his first real attempt at a 3k, he won Millrose in a meet record + a big kick. That, coupled with his history of running fast on his own (3:31 solo in 2021, 3:48 solo last year), and the 2 mile WR being on the weaker side, make me think it's a completely reasonable goal.

Sounds like no, but we’ll see.

EDIT: I don’t see why he couldn’t sub out a USA-based 5K in favor of the 3K at Worlds, but from his comments it seems he’s quite particular

Why do you think Bekele an Morceli are faster in the 2 Miles than Gebrselassie?

Yeah Geb ran 7:25 outdoors, he is in the same group as Cheptegei at least. I’d move Cheptegei, Bekele and Morceli down. Top group of Komen, Kejelcha, Jakob, El Guerrouj and Girma

no one in the right mind believe “the next guy” can run sub 8. period.