Oh, and still able to be on the podium (3rd) after Geay and Kandie
Valencia: Cheptegei predictions?
Pro News/Info/Results
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Primeape wrote:
LOL Your brain is the one that needs a monkey wrench! hahaha
If the weather was perfect, my prediction for Joshua's time would be between 2:02:50-2:03:30, honestly, but since it's gping to be quite windy, with strong bursts from the west, most of the first part of the race will be hard, so 2:04:47 (at least), still fast enough for beating the national Ugandan record of 2:04:48 by Stephen Kissa (Hamburg 2022).
Looks more like Saturday’s forecast than Sunday’s. My weather app says winds at 5mph with gusts up to 9mph at race time, which isn’t bad at all.
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I predict that he will finish and walk away wanting to do another one :)
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
Primeape wrote:
LOL Your brain is the one that needs a monkey wrench! hahaha
If the weather was perfect, my prediction for Joshua's time would be between 2:02:50-2:03:30, honestly, but since it's gping to be quite windy, with strong bursts from the west, most of the first part of the race will be hard, so 2:04:47 (at least), still fast enough for beating the national Ugandan record of 2:04:48 by Stephen Kissa (Hamburg 2022).
Looks more like Saturday’s forecast than Sunday’s. My weather app says winds at 5mph with gusts up to 9mph at race time, which isn’t bad at all.
Yes, apparently winds are calming down.
Anyway, you can check this website (the spanish national weather agency):
[Winds speed is at km/h]
Very good temperatures though...00 -
BrainCelll wrote:
I'm thinking 2:05-2:06. Just because you've a brilliant track pedigree doesn't always translate to road; Tadese, Farah, kinda like Kamworor
His 59:21 in Poland at World Half Champs was underwhelming relative to people's expectations and recent interviews say he's been doing 80M/week - I struggle to believe it's that low, but if it is then that only reinforces my suspicion that this wont be as fast as people seem to think
2:08:59, guess 80M/week doesn't cut it...
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Bekele at age 41 beat him by 4 minutes and 40 seconds.
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BrainCelll wrote:
BrainCelll wrote:
I'm thinking 2:05-2:06. Just because you've a brilliant track pedigree doesn't always translate to road; Tadese, Farah, kinda like Kamworor
His 59:21 in Poland at World Half Champs was underwhelming relative to people's expectations and recent interviews say he's been doing 80M/week - I struggle to believe it's that low, but if it is then that only reinforces my suspicion that this wont be as fast as people seem to think
2:08:59, guess 80M/week doesn't cut it...
This conclusion should be the main take-away for Chep.
A world-class marathoner runs north of 100 mpw.
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Charlesvdw wrote:
BrainCelll wrote:
2:08:59, guess 80M/week doesn't cut it...
This conclusion should be the main take-away for Chep.
A world-class marathoner runs north of 100 mpw.
In other words, he didn't take training for a marathon seriously. Even with his talent that isn't nearly enough mileage.
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i think if he runs 2:05 you can say the mileage was the problem. He ran almost 2:09. unless he wasn't well, this likely isn't a race for him.
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bekele boi wrote:
Three predictions, in order of decreasing likelihood
1) Chep will have a slower debut than the GOAT Bekele did
2) There is imo a pretty sizeable chance Bekele actually places higher than Chep in this race.
3) Bekele straight up wins
Well, 2 out of 3 wasnt bad.
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Charlesvdw wrote:
BrainCelll wrote:
2:08:59, guess 80M/week doesn't cut it...
This conclusion should be the main take-away for Chep.
A world-class marathoner runs north of 100 mpw.
north of 100mpw in elite marathon world is like saying north of 30 mpw.
most of them are running 140-180 mpw10
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